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Resolution Foundation
@resolutionfoundation.org
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The Resolution Foundation is an independent think-tank dedicated to lifting living standards in the UK.
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · Nov 12
Hello and welcome to all our new followers 👋

To ensure you're getting all the best analysis and insights, we've made a starter pack of all our staff on Bluesky. Make sure to give them a follow too ⤵️
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resolutionfoundation.org
Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income.

The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25 ⤵️ buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
Chart showing total Income Tax and National Insurance as a share of labour cost: UK excluding Scotland
November 19, 2025 at 6:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Key childhood risk factors associated with being a NEET (not in education, employment or training) are becoming more common.

These indicators matter for policy makers interested in the future NEETs outlook.

Read more➡️ buff.ly/kIei4lG
Chart showing proportion of children with various indicators of NEET risk: England It is well-documented that an increasing share of children are growing up with a disability: among children aged 11-15 in England, the proportion who are classified as disabled has risen from less than one-in-ten in 2015-16 (9%) to almost one-in-six (16%) in 2023-24. This largely relates to impairments that are social or behavioural, learning-related or mental health-related. Relatedly, the proportion of children in England who receive support relating to special educational needs (SEN) is also on the rise. Among secondary school pupils, the proportion in receipt of SEN support has risen from 13% in 2015/16 to 17% in 2024/25. The proportion of children who are regularly missing school spiked during the Covid-19 pandemic and remains elevated. In 2024/25, one-in-five (21%) of secondary school pupils were persistently absent from school, meaning they missed 10% or more of term time.
November 19, 2025 at 5:30 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Did you know that government levies have driven more than half of the rise in electricity bills in recent years?

Read 'Splitting the bill' to find out how to cut energy bills 👉 buff.ly/sHhw6L1
November 19, 2025 at 4:00 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
The housing crisis has been brewing for a long time, according to Professor Paul Cheshire 👇
November 19, 2025 at 3:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
📢 Looking to catch up on the latest events and discussion from the Resolution Foundation?

🎧 You can listen to all of them in podcast form 👇
Resolution Foundation Events Podcast | externalaffairs
Recordings of live Resolution Foundation events discussing our latest research and hosting policy debates on improving the living standards of low-to-middle income families.
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November 19, 2025 at 2:30 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
🏡 New data on private rent inflation was released this morning 🏡

Here's what you need to know 🧵 ⤵️
November 19, 2025 at 2:00 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
How can the Government help families with high energy bills?

Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach.

Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3
November 19, 2025 at 1:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income.

The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25 ⤵️ buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
Chart showing total Income Tax and National Insurance as a share of labour cost: UK excluding Scotland
November 19, 2025 at 12:45 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Inflation has begun its long march back to 2 per cent.

RF response 👉 buff.ly/2XaWLik
CPI inflation falls to 3.6% last month, down from 3.8% the previous month.
November 19, 2025 at 11:15 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
CPI inflation has most likely peaked, for the time being.

UK inflation is still higher than other comparable countries, in part due to administered prices adding 0.4ppts to CPI.
November 19, 2025 at 11:00 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
In 'Splitting the bill' we found that if the Government removed some policy costs from electricity bills, it could save the average family £160, while pushing down on inflation.

Read here 👉 buff.ly/z69JDpL
November 19, 2025 at 10:44 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
What would happen if the Government delivered on its aim of building 1.5 million new homes?

Hannah Aldridge explains why that wouldn't be enough to immediately bring down housing costs ⤵️
November 19, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Reposted by Resolution Foundation
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UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...
November 19, 2025 at 7:58 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade.

It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade.

Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
Chart showing Nominal main rate of Fuel Duty per litre under different scenarios
November 19, 2025 at 9:30 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
Here's everything you need to know about this morning's inflation data 🧵⤵️
jamessmithrf.bsky.social JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 1d
UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...
November 19, 2025 at 8:32 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
Inflation has begun its long march down – falling to 3.6 per cent, down from 3.8 per cent – but the persistently high cost of living demands action from the Chancellor at the Budget.

Get the Resolution Foundation response to the latest inflation figures here ⤵️ buff.ly/2XaWLik
November 19, 2025 at 8:10 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
⏰ It's nearly time to tune in... 👀

📻 In 15 minutes, our Chief Executive @ruthcurtice.bsky.social will be live on Radio 4, taking part in the Today programme debate on tax.

Don't miss it! ⤵️
BBC Radio 4 - Today, 18/11/2025
Award-winning current affairs documentary series.
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November 18, 2025 at 7:45 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
In 2024, the UK had the lowest taxes on an average employee of any G7 country.

UK taxes for lower earners were also the lowest in the G7.

But the UK's position might change in 2025.

Read more 👉 buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
Chart showing tax wedge for a single employee on that country's average pay: OECD, 2024 In OECD comparisons, which look at the equivalents of Income Tax and employee NI paid by a full-time employee on mean pay (around £50,000 in the UK), our effective tax rate was the lowest in the G7 last year, with the UK on 21 per cent – compared to 24 per cent in the US and 37 per cent in Germany. But this is not a complete measure: if we add in employer NI, then the total tax wedge for this employee rises to 29 per cent (as a share of total labour cost). But this was, again, the lowest in the G7, and among the lowest in the OECD, as Figure 1 shows, with an OECD average of 35 per cent.
November 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
The latest labour market data suggest that pay growth is continuing to weaken.

After adjusting for inflation, average weekly pay has grown by just £3 over the past 12 months.
Chart showing: Real average weekly earnings (regular pay): GB
November 18, 2025 at 5:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Headroom against the Chancellor's fiscal rules is more than wiped out based on expected forecast changes.

This is a result of u-turns and changes to the economic outlook.

Read more in our Budget Preview➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
Figure 9 shows the deterioration to the current deficit. A positive number here indicates the Government borrowing to cover day-to-day spending. Based on our modelling, there would be a current-balance deficit (i.e. borrowing to fund day-to-day spending) of around £4 billion in 2029-30, the year at which the fiscal rules will be evaluated, as a result of u-turns and changes to the economic outlook.
November 18, 2025 at 4:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
The Budget will be a pivotal moment for a Government looking to improve its mood music.

James Smith explains why the Chx should prioritise:

🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips

Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
November 18, 2025 at 3:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Repealing the two-child limit in full is the most powerful policy lever the Government can pull to drive down child poverty rates.

Read 'No half measures' now ⤵️ buff.ly/qVc9CWs
November 18, 2025 at 2:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
What does good housing regulation look like?
November 18, 2025 at 1:46 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Has the Budget rumour-mill gone too far?

Excessive 'kite-flying' - leaking rumoured tax policies to test their reaction with the public - risks exacerbating market uncertainty.
The Chancellor needs to achieve three things in the Autumn budget: 1. Take decisive steps to improve the public finances and increase the financial buffers against her fiscal rules. 2. Address cost of living pressures for families and support the Bank of England in lowering inflation. 3. In the interest of growth, make changes that improve the tax system overall. Much depends on the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts A significant economic deterioration would leave the Chancellor choosing whether to break the spirit or letter of her manifesto pledge not to raise Income Tax. A more benign economic outlook will make it far easier to avoid breaking it at all. There’s more than one way to raise revenue on the main personal taxes: 1. Freezing personal tax thresholds for two more years from April 2028 could raise £7.5 billion (in 2029-30). 2. Switching 2p of employee National Insurance onto Income Tax could raise £6 billion. Reducing the Higher Rate Threshold for Income Tax and Upper Earnings Limit for employee/self-mployed National Insurance could raise £9 billion. Has the Budget rumour mill gone too far? It is normal for economic forecasts and policies to change in the run up to the Budget. It is not normal for so much of that to be laid bare in public. Market moves off the back endless Budget rumours suggest a serious look should be taken at the approach to market-sensitive forecast information.
November 18, 2025 at 1:19 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Young people are increasingly struggling to gain a foothold in the labour market. And the proportion of young people who are NEET and who have never had a paid job is higher still.

Entering adulthood without any work experience limits opportunities to build skills,
confidence & earnings potential.
Chart showing proportion of NEETs (left) and all young people (right) who have never had a paid job by age group: UK
November 18, 2025 at 12:15 PM