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resiliencesci.bsky.social
Garry Peterson
@resiliencesci.bsky.social
3.2K followers 1.3K following 850 posts
Director FinBio.org
Professor of Environmental Science
with focus on Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University stockholmresilience.org

projects:
regimeshifts.org
biospherefutures.net
goodanthropocenes.net
Posts Replies Media Videos
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Stakeholder perspectives on pondscapes: a multinational analysis using storylines and the Nature Futures Framework
Rashidi+
doi.org/10.1080/2639...

"our use of the NFF with stakeholders demonstrates the framework’s practical utility in a participatory setting"
Figure 5. Nature Futures Framework diagrams with stakeholder preferences for each country.
November 10, 2025 at 8:59 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
"MiseryMap"
visualization of flight delays in USA
www.flightaware.com/miserymap/
map of us flight delays
November 10, 2025 at 2:32 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Exploring values embedded in policy options of the cultural landscapes of Japan through the Nature Futures Framework
Lahoti+
doi.org/10.4324/9781...

examining diverse values associated
with policy options to rejuvenate
bio-production systems in the cultural landscapes of Japan
Categorizing these policy options using the NFF unveiled multiple characteristics associated with different values. Each policy option was linked to one to three descriptive characteristics, leading to a total of 252 descriptive characteristics. Based on the prominent descriptive characteristics, 185 policy options were linked to 185 values (Figure 26.4). This revealed a strong preference for NC values, constituting 36% of the policy options. Followed by NC values, a balance between the NN and NS values accounted for 18% (Figure 26.4). Following this NN values were seen in 11% of cases, however despite being cultural landscapes, the priority for balancing “nature as culture” and “nature for nature” was the lowest (9%).
November 10, 2025 at 12:54 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Integrating Multi-Level Sustainability and Ecosystem Integrity for Adaptive Scenario Planning in China
Wang+
doi.org/10.1029/2025...

using an adaptive approach can produce better policies
that reconcile conflicting policy goals of different levels of government
Comparison of land system among four future scenarios: national level (NAT), provincial level (PRO), local level (LOC), and multi-scale (sustainable development). (a) Areal fractions of different land types. In wind-rose plots, each sector represents an areal fraction of the corresponding land types. A larger surface area indicates a larger areal fraction. Land types with an area fraction of less than 10 are additionally marked. (b) Land system changes along two pathways: 2020–2050 and 2050–2100.
November 4, 2025 at 1:40 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Nature Futures Framework scenarios reveal contrasting landscape connectivity for European mammal translocations
Ascensão+
doi.org/10.1016/j.bi...

analyzing connectivity using circuitscape on Dou+ (doi.org/10.1016/j.gl...)
land-use scenarios
Scheme of our conceptual framework. Starting with data on release sites from Transloc database, and land system data – both baseline and Nature Futures Framework (NFF) scenarios (NAC, NFN, NFS) – we delineated circular landscapes centred on each release site (1). Land cover classes within these landscapes were then translated into species-specific resistance-to-movement values: green represents low resistance, yellow indicates moderate resistance, and white denotes high resistance (2). Using these cost surfaces, we modelled current flow from each release site (source point) to multiple surrounding target locations. This process generates a layer of current density (2), with warmer colours standing for higher current values. From this, we calculate the effective resistance between the release site and its surrounding landscape. Our experimental design included simulations over 57 release sites, 2 spatial extents, 4 land use scenarios, and 3 values for intermediate resistance, totalling 1368 simulations in Circuitscape (3).
October 29, 2025 at 8:10 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Human biomass movement exceeds the biomass movement of all land animals combined
Rosenberg+
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

"combined biomass movement of all wild birds, land arthropods and wild land mammals"
is
1/6 of humans walking
1/40th all the biomass movement of humans
Fig. 2: Biomass movement across prominent migrations and gatherings, and total mass movement across groups. Squares represent migrations, with distance summed over a year. Axes are on a logarithmic scale. Dashed lines depict lines of constant mass movement in units of t km yr−1, representing constant multiplications between the mass (horizontal axis) and annual distance (vertical axis). Circles represent the total mass movement of entire groups, extending beyond specific migrations or gatherings. Circles include data presented in Figs. 1 and 3. See Supplementary Information for detailed estimates.
October 28, 2025 at 3:19 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Assessing the exposure of buildings to long-term sea level rise across the Global South
Willard-Stepan+
doi.org/10.1038/s429...

"a first-order assessment of the exposure of buildings to sea level rise from satellite observation in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South and Central America."
Fig. 1: Exposure to building inundation as a function of LSR. Fig. 1: Exposure to building inundation as a function of LSR. Fig 1. In (a), the colour of each 50 km grid cell represents the amount of SLR that causes > 25% of the cell’s total building count to be inundated at high tide. Inset panels display (b) ~ 3 km and (c) ~ 250 m regions. In (b) and (c), individual buildings are coloured according to the value of LSLR at which the ground level of the building is in contact with water at high tide. These panels clarify that while the overall gridded result in (a) is quite coarse, variability within one grid cell can be high, and is well captured by the data set
October 28, 2025 at 2:48 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Hurricane Melissa (2025) and Climate Change
Preliminary analysis

warmer water 500-700X more likely due to climate change
increasing its potential damages by up to 50%.

www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...
The storm underwent rapid strengthening as it sluggishly crawled over exceptionally warm ocean waters 2.5°F (1.4°C) warmer than average and up to 700 times more likely due to human-caused climate change. These unusually warm ocean temperatures, along with tropical climate warming, are projected to have strengthened Melissa’s top wind speed by about 10 mph, increasing its potential damages by up to 50%.
October 28, 2025 at 1:24 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
The progression of Trump's tariffs
on.ft.com/47DR9Nv

"'Actual trade' rate is customs duty revenue as a % of value of goods imported.

'Based on announced tariffs' is the estimate of the long-run effective tariff rate based on current announced policy, after accounting for consumption shifts"
The progression of Trump's tariffs. Effective US global tariff rate, as at Sep 4 2025 (%) 'Actual trade' rate is customs duty revenue as a % of value of goods imported. 'Based on announced tariffs' is the estimate of the long-run effective tariff rate based on current announced policy, after accounting for consumption shifts
October 26, 2025 at 7:19 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Hurricane Melissa tracker and weather forecast
www.windy.com/-Hurricane-t...
weather map of hurricane melissa w/ track
October 26, 2025 at 6:55 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Hurricane Melissa
11AM EDT Oct 26, 2025

"Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night"
www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...
Key Messages for Hurricane Melissa Advisory 21: 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 26, 2025 Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. For more information go to hurricanes.gov Hurricane Melissa 11 AM EDT Advisory 21 Location: 15.4°N 76.4°W Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph Movement: W at 3 mph Forecast positions: Sun 8 PM — Near Jamaica Mon 8 PM — Near eastern Cuba Tue 8 AM — Bahamas Fri 8 AM — Offshore SE U.S. 4-Day Rainfall Forecast: Possible up to 40+ inches rainfall near Jamaica and Hispaniola Isolated 16+ inches in other areas
October 26, 2025 at 6:45 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Henry Farrell argues that "apocalyptic systems thrillers" are a useful way to write non-fiction
www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-apocal...

"Non-fiction writers should be explaining the systems and problems in ways that don’t deny agency or just tack it on at the end, but work it through"
the narrative structure aptly conveys the terror and excitement of a situation where no-one is quite sure what is going on, but everyone is struggling to guide it in the one direction or the other. This maps onto the underlying systems of the world that he describes – vast, complex, intersecting in highly uncertain ways, but still susceptible to the push and shove of brute force solutions from the central actors in the system.
October 20, 2025 at 8:32 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making
Abram+
doi.org/10.1038/s441...

"A science-based approach also allows for a more explicit assessment of the financial burdens that result when new fossil fuel projects are approved"
Fig. 2: Example of the quantification of the consequences of project-level CO2 emissions. The approach is illustrated using the Scarborough offshore gas project as a case study but is applicable to any fossil fuel project. Emissions from the Scarborough project of 876 Mt CO2 can be anticipated (based on the TCRE) to cause a best estimate of 0.00039 °C of additional global warming. The consequences of this additional warming are expected to result in best estimates of, a an additional 516,000 people globally exposed to unprecedented heat and 356,000 left outside the human climate niche in a world with 9.5 billion people32 (Supplementary Fig. 1 also quantifies impacts for global populations of 6.9 billion and 11.2 billion people); b an additional 484 heat-related deaths in Europe, and a total of 118 additional lives lost in Europe (net effect) by the end of this century under a middle-of-the-road emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5)39 (Supplementary Fig. 2 also quantifies impacts under the high emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario); and, c additional thermal exposure in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (Supplementary Fig. 3) that results in an additional 16 million coral colonies lost in every future bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef (lower panel after ref. 43). See Methods for calculation details, and text in the “quantifying consequences” section for more detailed descriptions of the examples illustrated in this figure.
October 17, 2025 at 4:29 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
The Green Central Banking Scorecard
"ranks G20 central banks on their climate action across financial regulation, monetary policy, research, and their own internal operations" from 2024
greencentralbanking.com/scorecard/
The Green Central Banking Scorecard, produced by Positive Money, scores and ranks the full range of green policies and initiatives adopted by G20 central banks. The analysis is based on a literature review, expert consultations, and bilateral interactions with central bankers and supervisors. The 2024 ranking places the EU and its G20 member countries (France, Germany and Italy) in the top four positions, and Brazil and China also rank highly. The progress of these institutions provides real world examples of effective green policy implementation for other central banks to follow. In contrast, the lack of action by the US Federal Reserve on addressing environmental risks is identified as a global cause for concern. The most advanced central banks have begun acknowledging the concept of double materiality, recognising both the financial causes and consequences of climate change in their policies and strategies. However, even among the top performers, there are substantial gaps in the adoption of high impact policies necessary to steer financial systems away from carbon-intensive activities and toward sustainable alternatives. The breakdown below shows what actions have contributed to each country’s score. Unless stated otherwise, policies have been fully implemented. This edition was published in September 2024.
October 17, 2025 at 10:41 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
What do Americans die from, and what is reported on?
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
"Heart disease and cancer accounted for 56% of deaths but received just 7% of the coverage...Homicides received 43 times more coverage than their share of deaths; terrorism received over 18,000 times more."
Heart disease and cancer accounted for 56% of deaths among these 15 causes, but together they received just 7% of the media coverage. Other chronic issues, such as strokes, respiratory problems, diabetes, and kidney and liver disease, were also very underrepresented in the news. Rare — but dramatic — events such as homicides and terrorism received more than half of all media coverage, despite being much smaller causes of death in the US. Terrorism, in particular, is a very rare cause of death, with 16 deaths in 2023. homicides and terrorism are extremely overrepresented. Homicides received 43 times more coverage than their share of deaths; terrorism received over 18,000 times more. At the other end, we see that conditions like heart disease, stroke, and liver disease are very underrepresented.
October 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Navigating generative AI in higher education – six near future scenarios
Lindell+
doi.org/10.1080/1743...

"this study suggests...educators struggle with GenAI due to a lack of understanding of how students use the tool...creates paralyzing contradictions around how learning goals can be adapted"
Figure 1. Overview of the analysis process in the paper
October 9, 2025 at 9:21 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries
Vlasceanu+
dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj5778

"the interventions’ effectiveness was small...beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance"
Fig. 3. Marginal effects (as the difference between interventions and control) as a function of estimated preintervention belief in climate change. Lines indicate the average effect size, with shaded regions indicating the 94% credible region. For visual clarity, regions in which the 94% credible region overlap zero are omitted from the figure. Where interventions have positive and negative effects that meet these criteria, a dashed line is used to connect these regions. The dashed vertical line indicates average belief, where effects in Fig. 1 are estimated. (A) Climate change belief, (B) policy support, (C) sharing information on social media, and (D) trees planted via the WEPT.
October 7, 2025 at 11:20 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
A boost for integrative rethinking of resilience in water-driven transitional ecosystems
Hurtado+
doi.org/10.1093/bios...

rethinking resilience of water-driven transitional ecosystems
"characterized by experiencing periodic and reversible alternations of aquatic-terrestrial transitional states"
Figure 2. Assembly disassembly dynamics of biological covers in water-driven transitional ecosystems. Historically, biodiversity assessmentshave primarily been focused on the ability of aquatic biofilms (in light green) to resist and recover from drying, overlooking the compensatoryeffects provided by terrestrial organisms. However, during the terrestrial phase, aquatic species must acclimate or emigrate, favoring organismswith rapid life cycles and specific adaptations for survival during the terrestrial phase (biocrusts in brown). Within an integrative approach,biological covers (in blue) are a cornerstone community, embracing both biofilm and biocrust dynamic ensembles that better represent thebiodiversity changes associated with fluctuating water availability. WDTE refers to water-driven transitional ecosystem.
October 5, 2025 at 12:54 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
"Over 89,000 electric trucks were sold in the first half of 2025, up 140% from the same period last year. China accounted for almost 80,000 of those, with sales in Europe making up most of the balance. US sales shrunk to just 200 units."

Clean Trucking Takes Off
about.bnef.com/insights/cle...
Over 89,000 electric trucks were sold in the first half of 2025, up 140% from the same period last year. China accounted for almost 80,000 of those, with sales in Europe making up most of the balance. US sales shrunk to just 200 units.
October 5, 2025 at 12:36 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Accounting for human–nature linkages in area-based conservation monitoring through social–ecological indicator bundles
Ban+
doi.org/10.1111/cobi...

"identify interactions among key nodes of the system that can be a focus of monitoring...We called these indicator bundles."
An example can illustrate the indicator bundles approach. Consider understanding of recovery and maintenance of populations. An ecological indicator might be the biomass of one or more ecologically important species that were previously overfished. Recovery and conservation will be influenced by compliance with the MPA rule that prevents fishing (behavior indicator). Compliance, in turn, is influenced by fishers’ perceptions of the MPA (e.g., perceived legitimacy, an attitudes and beliefs indicator) and perceived fairness of MPA decision-making (governance indicator). These 5 indicators—biomass, compliance, perceived legitimacy, catches, and perceived fairness—form a bundle that is causally linked and could help identify why ecological recovery or positive social outcomes are or are not occurring (Figure 4a). If ecological recovery is not happening, a manager would have increased ability to identify potential causal factors by examining the outcomes of other indicators in the bundle.
October 5, 2025 at 8:10 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Opportunity cost estimates for spatial conservation prioritisation across terrestrial Europe
Spencer+
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

European Land Opportunity Costs of Conservation map at 1 km (EULOCC1K): an area-standardised pan-European opportunity cost map, including agriculture, forestry + urban land
Opportunity costs of conservation across terrestrial Europe. Insets show examples of opportunity costs specific to forestry, urban, pastoral, and arable land (bottom left to bottom right).
October 3, 2025 at 9:25 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Line Gordon director @sthlmresilience.bsky.social
@stockholm-uni.bsky.social

Presenting actions for transforming food systems
Actions from EAT-Lancet Role of justice for and in transformation
October 3, 2025 at 8:33 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
"These actions are grounded in available scientific evidence to highlight their potential in delivering meaningful impacts across health, environment, and justice outcomes, and also in creating the enabling environment for more profound systems change"
Depending on how they are implemented, all actions have the potential to contribute positively to other goals. The suggested strength of positive impact was developed based on dialogue with the Commissioners.
October 3, 2025 at 7:07 AM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
"The frequency and severity of such “fire disaster weather” increased substantially during the period 1980 to 2023...

climate change has substantially increased the frequency and severity of such “disaster weather”"
dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.adr5127
Points show the percentage of days (FWI and VPD) and months (PDSI) in each year at the disaster locations that exceeded the 97.5th percentile value (which corresponds to mean FWI max during the disasters). calculated over all days from 1980 to 2023. The blue line shows the fit of a generalized additive model.
October 2, 2025 at 7:48 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires
Cunningham+
dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.adr5127

"The frequency of major economic disasters caused by wildfires increased by a factor of ~4.4 from 1980 to 2023"

NYTimes
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/c...
In each panel, the black lines show the 5-year rolling average. (A) Temporal distribution of the 200 most damaging wildfire events, measured as a percentage of a country’s contemporaneous GDP. The blue line shows the fit of a generalized linear model (GLM) [± 95% confidence interval (CI)]. (B) Temporal trends in wildfire events that led to large losses of life, defined by EM-DAT as at least 10 fatalities, with the blue line showing the fit of a GLM (± 95% CI). (C) The annual frequency of billion-dollar events (2022 USD). (D) Total damage costs of wildfire disasters, calculated from all events (not just the top 200). (E) Total damage costs expressed as a percentage of global GDP, with the dashed line indicating the 44-year mean. See fig. S6 for separate regional graphs of (A) and table S4 for model coefficients for (A) to (C).
October 2, 2025 at 7:45 PM