My theory is simple: El Niño heat (and/or crazy '23-'24 heat!) leads to ASI lows in the next 1 or 2 years. Volume very likely 2nd lowest in 2025. I think the new regime requires redefining things: With 3 years of excessive heat, anything goes in 2026, and probably will.

If you don’t feed the goose that lays golden eggs, well, no more eggs for you.

It follows that arbitrary restrictions on who is allowed to contribute (from racist prejudice, sexism, nativism etc) reduce the good things, or at best, displace them to somewhere else. People pursuing these restrictions are not saving the best for themselves, they are destroying the pipeline.

2018 (?) and 2021 (Heat Bombs, papers out of Scripps), papers confirm the mechanism.

May add to predictive rigor if included in models.

Gerontocrat, at Arctic Sea Ice Blog, estimated likely 2nd lowest. This fits my El Nino/ASI teleconnection model @ 2015.

I.e., within the summer of or after an EN, you'll see an ASI 1ST, 2nd or 3rd lowest measure in extent, area or volume.(True for all ENs 2016 to present.)

(Con't)

Criminally negligent of the Trump administration, imo.

Slight topic change, but what rank did Sept. ASI Volume come in at? (Kinda important, actually.)

I've been protesting, but I decided to do something different. I made an ad. I've given a lot of thought as to how to communicate without confrontation to Republican voters, non-voters, or Trumpers who are beginning to be concerned. I hope you'll watch - it's only 30 seconds. youtu.be/bp6XUjteeV4

Risks or threats would be more powerful.

Well, duh!

Impeach.