Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot
Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
http://cookpolitical.com/about/staff/david-wasserman
(Unofficial bot maintained by @manos.lol)
http://cookpolitical.com/about/staff/david-wasserman
(Unofficial bot maintained by @manos.lol)
New @CookPolitical: Could the White House's redistricting war backfire? Three GOP seats at severe risk if VA joins CA in adopting a Dem gerrymander:
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Three GOP Seats at Severe Risk in Virginia Democrats’ Redistricting Push | Cook Political Report
Earlier this year, it looked like Republicans were poised to double or triple the size of their thin cushion in the House by launching a mid-decade redistricting war. But they may have had a blind...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 26, 2025 at 2:59 PM
New @CookPolitical: Could the White House's redistricting war backfire? Three GOP seats at severe risk if VA joins CA in adopting a Dem gerrymander:
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes:
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Four House Ratings Move Towards Dems in Virginia and New Jersey | Cook Political Report
Following their resounding wins up and down the ballot earlier this month, it’s clear that momentum is on Democrats’ side. President Donald Trump’s approval rating — and voters’ opinions of his...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:22 AM
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes:
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Talk about backfire: if the new ruling blocking TX Republicans' map is upheld, Dems would be on track to come out *ahead* by ~3 seats in the redistricting wars - w/ FL, LA & VA the biggest remaining variables.
If you score remap shifts between safe/competitive seats as +/-0.5, here's how the count looks today, to my eye:
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
November 18, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Talk about backfire: if the new ruling blocking TX Republicans' map is upheld, Dems would be on track to come out *ahead* by ~3 seats in the redistricting wars - w/ FL, LA & VA the biggest remaining variables.
New @CookPolitical: new court-ordered Utah map moves #UT01 from Solid R to Solid D. Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Court-Ordered Utah Map Hands Democrats an Easy Flip | Cook Political Report
Democrats notched another win in the mid-decade redistricting wars late Monday night, when a district judge approved a new congressional map in Utah that creates a solidly blue district in Salt Lake...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:24 PM
New @CookPolitical: new court-ordered Utah map moves #UT01 from Solid R to Solid D. Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
If you score remap shifts between safe/competitive seats as +/-0.5, here's how the count looks today, to my eye:
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
November 11, 2025 at 1:23 PM
If you score remap shifts between safe/competitive seats as +/-0.5, here's how the count looks today, to my eye:
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
Between OH, KS, CA, VA and now this huge win in UT, Democrats have quietly strung together an impressive streak of victories over the past few weeks that have, surprisingly, pushed the mid-decade redistricting war closer to a draw.
November 11, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Between OH, KS, CA, VA and now this huge win in UT, Democrats have quietly strung together an impressive streak of victories over the past few weeks that have, surprisingly, pushed the mid-decade redistricting war closer to a draw.
Dems score huge redistricting victory in Utah, as judge overrules GOP legislature and orders a map w/ a new Harris +24 #UT01, guaranteeing Dems a one seat pickup. www.nbcnews.com/politic…
November 11, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Dems score huge redistricting victory in Utah, as judge overrules GOP legislature and orders a map w/ a new Harris +24 #UT01, guaranteeing Dems a one seat pickup. www.nbcnews.com/politic…
Big blue wave? I went on @beerocracyus (w/ pumpkin ale in hand) to talk about what Tuesday’s election results really mean. open.spotify.com/episod…
Big Blue Wave? What The Election Results Actually Mean
Beerocracy!® · Episode
open.spotify.com
November 9, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Big blue wave? I went on @beerocracyus (w/ pumpkin ale in hand) to talk about what Tuesday’s election results really mean. open.spotify.com/episod…
If there's a consolation for Republicans, it's that they're on track to hold all the Trump 5-10 districts in VA (if narrowly in some cases), meaning the bottom didn't entirely drop out.
Here are the seven GOP-held VA HoD seats Trump won by 5-10 pts. If Dems win any of these tonight, *watch out* (it's tsunami territory):
#HD34 Wilt (R)
#HD40 McNamara (R)
#HD49 Marshall (R)
#HD52 Walker (R)
#HD74 Cherry (R)
#HD83 Wachsmann (R)
#HD100 Bloxom (R)
#HD34 Wilt (R)
#HD40 McNamara (R)
#HD49 Marshall (R)
#HD52 Walker (R)
#HD74 Cherry (R)
#HD83 Wachsmann (R)
#HD100 Bloxom (R)
November 5, 2025 at 3:50 AM
If there's a consolation for Republicans, it's that they're on track to hold all the Trump 5-10 districts in VA (if narrowly in some cases), meaning the bottom didn't entirely drop out.
Update: this has happened. Dems on track to win at least 64 (!) VA House of Delegates seats, w/ two races still outstanding. Massive Dem night.
If Dems win 63+ HoD seats, it would be consistent w/ a lot of strong overperformances we've seen for Dems in downballot races so far in '25 and indicate that Dems should be considered favorites for House control in '26.
November 5, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Update: this has happened. Dems on track to win at least 64 (!) VA House of Delegates seats, w/ two races still outstanding. Massive Dem night.
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
November 5, 2025 at 12:09 AM
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
November 4, 2025 at 11:54 PM
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
Admin note: The bot is currently experiencing intermittent issues with posting threads. I'm investigating the issue.
November 4, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Admin note: The bot is currently experiencing intermittent issues with posting threads. I'm investigating the issue.
Here are the eight GOP-held VA HoD seats won by Harris in '24 that Dems have a great chance to flip:
#HD22 Lovejoy (R)
#HD57 Owen (R)
#HD71 Batten (R)
#HD73 Earley (R)
#HD75 Coyner (R)
#HD82 Taylor (R)
#HD86 Cordoza (R)
#HD89 OPEN (R)
#HD22 Lovejoy (R)
#HD57 Owen (R)
#HD71 Batten (R)
#HD73 Earley (R)
#HD75 Coyner (R)
#HD82 Taylor (R)
#HD86 Cordoza (R)
#HD89 OPEN (R)
November 4, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Here are the eight GOP-held VA HoD seats won by Harris in '24 that Dems have a great chance to flip:
#HD22 Lovejoy (R)
#HD57 Owen (R)
#HD71 Batten (R)
#HD73 Earley (R)
#HD75 Coyner (R)
#HD82 Taylor (R)
#HD86 Cordoza (R)
#HD89 OPEN (R)
#HD22 Lovejoy (R)
#HD57 Owen (R)
#HD71 Batten (R)
#HD73 Earley (R)
#HD75 Coyner (R)
#HD82 Taylor (R)
#HD86 Cordoza (R)
#HD89 OPEN (R)
By comparison, today there are three House GOP members in Harris districts, 12 in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts and 14 in districts that voted for Trump by 5-10 pts (though these numbers will change a bit when redistricting dust settles).
Today, the VA House of Delegates is effectively 51D-49R. But there are eight GOP delegates in districts that voted for Harris in '24, another six in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts, and another seven in districts Trump won by 5-10 pts.
November 5, 2025 at 3:22 AM
By comparison, today there are three House GOP members in Harris districts, 12 in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts and 14 in districts that voted for Trump by 5-10 pts (though these numbers will change a bit when redistricting dust settles).
ICYMI, here's @CookPolitical's guide for what to watch tonight in CA, NJ and VA: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
What to Watch on Election Night 2025 | Cook Political Report
The off-year elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia are a political level-set. For the last year, most of our assumptions about the relative strength of the two parties' voter coalitions...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:45 PM
ICYMI, here's @CookPolitical's guide for what to watch tonight in CA, NJ and VA: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
New @CookPolitical: How many more seats could Florida Republicans squeeze out of the Sunshine State? Full analysis on why Reps. Darren Soto (D), Jared Moskowitz (D) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) are at risk: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Florida Redistricting: How Many More Seats Could Republicans Squeeze Out of the Sunshine State? |...
In the White House-launched mid-decade redistricting war, the highest-profile weapons in Republicans’ arsenal so far have been Texas (where they could net 3-5 seats), Missouri (1 seat), North...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 2, 2025 at 7:08 PM
New @CookPolitical: How many more seats could Florida Republicans squeeze out of the Sunshine State? Full analysis on why Reps. Darren Soto (D), Jared Moskowitz (D) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) are at risk: www.cookpolitical.com/a…