3/ Businesses everywhere crave predictability and arguments that this game theory 4D chess moves are genius is pure cope.

Return trust and predictability first, then the rest will sort itself out. Even with high tariffs.

2/ No business can plan around that; and the only winning move is not to play.

At best, US importers will be forced to pay upfront for orders. At worst, there won't be any supply.

So yes, Pax Americana has been expensive for the US, but it has also brought a huge peace dividend to the US and the world.

I'm not sure bellum universale can be good for anyone.

But with the former, conflicts can last a lot longer. Dealing a lot of human and economic misery.

And as the experience of Europe showed, conflicts between individual nations can also erupt into regional conflagrations.

of its scale and audacity.

And once countries prepare for war, the likelihood of them going to war is greater, as any diplomatic spark can now be used as a pretext to war.

Lacking large standing armies and equipment, most wars would be skirmishes lasting days or weeks.

The history lessons from Europe in the 16th to 20th centuries ought to be clear and help others understand why Europe so chronically fatigued from never-ending war, finally breathed a sigh of relief and embraced a supranational economic union which still remains today the only experiment ...

As a new global arms race explodes, money gets diverted away from productive economic activities into activities of preparing for war.

For some aggressor countries led by populist leaders, this would be the perfect excuse to revisit old grudges and invade neighbours to settle old scores.

Most other countries have not. And military drills, while valuable, don't really substitute for actual combat.

But now, if the US wants Europe and other countries of the world to rearm, what does that do to world order?

Supreme preparedness means engaging in real wars on a near constant basis, both to test and improve equipment and to sharpen fighting and leadership skills of those who fight.

The US has done this over decades, and can legitimately claim to be a very powerful warfighting machine.

... to anyone merely thinking about first order effects.

It is only natural when peace is the default global state that nations spend more on benign activities and less on militaries and warfighting preparedness.

Military spend and warfighting preparedness has a cost, a very high cost.

Seems like every bit of digital kit we have wants our undivided attention and requires frequent updating.

I wonder if we spend too much time making sure our kit runs rather than doing actual work!

Amazing coincidence how even with Indonesia joining BRICS, all the full-member country currencies still start with the letter 'R'!

LOL

Yikes. Hope it doesn't become a pandemic.