Daniel P
@putmands.bsky.social
My estimates are unbiased but my takes might be. Development, networks, risk, household finance, applied metrics, and the Green Bay Packers.
I guess if I was going to, e.g., use an agent, I would be worried that the more time savings that was promised, the more the work performed would depart from the prompt I made---obviously work needs to be checked, but it seems to me to be a problem that issues get worse as verification gets harder
November 3, 2025 at 3:23 PM
I guess if I was going to, e.g., use an agent, I would be worried that the more time savings that was promised, the more the work performed would depart from the prompt I made---obviously work needs to be checked, but it seems to me to be a problem that issues get worse as verification gets harder
My strategy has been to increase the number of times I repeat the prompt for smaller batches, but I have learned that GPT is not great at counting slides
November 3, 2025 at 3:18 PM
My strategy has been to increase the number of times I repeat the prompt for smaller batches, but I have learned that GPT is not great at counting slides
If you run a cross-country growth regression with aid dollars as an independent variable and get a negative coefficient is it that:
-countries doing worse will get more aid on average
-countries doing worse today will do worse in the future
OR
-Aid is entirely broken and reduces growth
-countries doing worse will get more aid on average
-countries doing worse today will do worse in the future
OR
-Aid is entirely broken and reduces growth
November 2, 2025 at 4:20 AM
If you run a cross-country growth regression with aid dollars as an independent variable and get a negative coefficient is it that:
-countries doing worse will get more aid on average
-countries doing worse today will do worse in the future
OR
-Aid is entirely broken and reduces growth
-countries doing worse will get more aid on average
-countries doing worse today will do worse in the future
OR
-Aid is entirely broken and reduces growth
It's been a long time but Moyo's argument didn't do much for me when I read dead aid. In that genre, I'd rather assign Easterly, who is much more transparent about the fact that our evidence around aid in the aggregate will be, by nature, contaminated by selection bias.
November 2, 2025 at 4:15 AM
It's been a long time but Moyo's argument didn't do much for me when I read dead aid. In that genre, I'd rather assign Easterly, who is much more transparent about the fact that our evidence around aid in the aggregate will be, by nature, contaminated by selection bias.
I'd guess going for 2 down 8 happens more often as time winds down, which would probably reduce win rate as well. You could check this as well, just by taking the average time on the clock when the decision was made.
October 15, 2025 at 4:08 PM
I'd guess going for 2 down 8 happens more often as time winds down, which would probably reduce win rate as well. You could check this as well, just by taking the average time on the clock when the decision was made.
Forgive me for this late night Point Reyes posting
October 11, 2025 at 3:24 AM
Forgive me for this late night Point Reyes posting
So October 2 in East Lansing was apparently just a grassroots gathering then lol
October 7, 2025 at 8:44 PM
So October 2 in East Lansing was apparently just a grassroots gathering then lol
I followed you!! (Tnkrtlrsldrspy)
October 5, 2025 at 4:07 AM
I followed you!! (Tnkrtlrsldrspy)
Do you have a letterboxd?
October 5, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Do you have a letterboxd?
Ostentatious stick count at four
October 2, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Ostentatious stick count at four
If I get accidentally Bronsoned for this, I knew the risks
September 9, 2025 at 1:44 PM
If I get accidentally Bronsoned for this, I knew the risks
Packers win, post cheese
September 7, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Packers win, post cheese