Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
International Relations and Foreign Policy. UChicago Prof. Chicago Council Fellow. WPReview Columnist. Still on Twitter/X, but now here too.
https://www.paulpoast.com/
https://www.paulpoast.com/
The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.
September 28, 2025 at 12:01 PM
The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.
Who are China's Friends? According to a recent survey by the @global-affairs.bsky.social of the Chinese public, Xi was right to have Putin and Kim as his "guests of honor" at the recent military parade.
September 17, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Who are China's Friends? According to a recent survey by the @global-affairs.bsky.social of the Chinese public, Xi was right to have Putin and Kim as his "guests of honor" at the recent military parade.
Of all the documents we read for "Wheat at War" (available here: www.amazon.com/Wheat-War-Al...), a favorite was from the French Foreign Ministry archives: the list of delegates to the 1916 Paris Economic Conference of the Allied Nations.
It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)
It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)
September 16, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Of all the documents we read for "Wheat at War" (available here: www.amazon.com/Wheat-War-Al...), a favorite was from the French Foreign Ministry archives: the list of delegates to the 1916 Paris Economic Conference of the Allied Nations.
It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)
It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)
"Hegemonism" may not be in "China's DNA" (according to Xi Jinping), but what does China's public want? According to new polling by @global-affairs.bsky.social & @cartercenter.bsky.social, the public is split on being dominant or sharing global leadership.
September 9, 2025 at 11:25 AM
"Hegemonism" may not be in "China's DNA" (according to Xi Jinping), but what does China's public want? According to new polling by @global-affairs.bsky.social & @cartercenter.bsky.social, the public is split on being dominant or sharing global leadership.
n preparation for teaching this fall, I'm creating a document titled "Abuse and Use of AI in Social Science Research Analysis and Writing".
It will offer examples of "good use" and "bad use" of AI. For most, I offer detailed examples of the good and bad. But NOT for 👇 task
It will offer examples of "good use" and "bad use" of AI. For most, I offer detailed examples of the good and bad. But NOT for 👇 task
August 25, 2025 at 12:07 PM
n preparation for teaching this fall, I'm creating a document titled "Abuse and Use of AI in Social Science Research Analysis and Writing".
It will offer examples of "good use" and "bad use" of AI. For most, I offer detailed examples of the good and bad. But NOT for 👇 task
It will offer examples of "good use" and "bad use" of AI. For most, I offer detailed examples of the good and bad. But NOT for 👇 task
To write "Wheat at War", we had to acquire A LOT of documents. A favorite is this letter from Clementel (🇫🇷) to Runciman (🇬🇧). It kick started the negotiations to create the Wheat Executive. It also illustrates the value of "always reach out to the archives" -- as they sent the document for free 😉!
August 21, 2025 at 2:55 PM
To write "Wheat at War", we had to acquire A LOT of documents. A favorite is this letter from Clementel (🇫🇷) to Runciman (🇬🇧). It kick started the negotiations to create the Wheat Executive. It also illustrates the value of "always reach out to the archives" -- as they sent the document for free 😉!
Overall, looking forward to the book becoming available this Friday!
August 13, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Overall, looking forward to the book becoming available this Friday!
Our book, "Wheat at War", will be available this Friday (link soon). What's it about? In many ways, the book's narrative is captured in the below graph (indeed, this graph appears early in the introductory chapter).
August 13, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Our book, "Wheat at War", will be available this Friday (link soon). What's it about? In many ways, the book's narrative is captured in the below graph (indeed, this graph appears early in the introductory chapter).
Fourth, one of the first sophisticated statistical techniques I ever learned was how to find structural breaks. I never had a chance to use that technique in published research, until now.
August 12, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Fourth, one of the first sophisticated statistical techniques I ever learned was how to find structural breaks. I never had a chance to use that technique in published research, until now.
Writing "Wheat at War" (to be released this Friday) was special for a host of reasons (including working with @rosellacappella.bsky.social). One of the biggest reasons for me is that it ties together so much of the research work I have done to this point in my career
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August 12, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Writing "Wheat at War" (to be released this Friday) was special for a host of reasons (including working with @rosellacappella.bsky.social). One of the biggest reasons for me is that it ties together so much of the research work I have done to this point in my career
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Always a thrill to unbox my author copies of a new book!
(and always worth the 🙄 from my wife when I say, "Like I always told you, when you put your mind to it you can accomplish anything")
(and always worth the 🙄 from my wife when I say, "Like I always told you, when you put your mind to it you can accomplish anything")
August 11, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Always a thrill to unbox my author copies of a new book!
(and always worth the 🙄 from my wife when I say, "Like I always told you, when you put your mind to it you can accomplish anything")
(and always worth the 🙄 from my wife when I say, "Like I always told you, when you put your mind to it you can accomplish anything")
With nations lining up to (eventually) recognize a Palestinian State, it's useful to consider these @global-affairs.bsky.social survey results from May.
Overall, most think the US should not take a side in the conflict, though there are clear partisan differences.
Overall, most think the US should not take a side in the conflict, though there are clear partisan differences.
July 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
With nations lining up to (eventually) recognize a Palestinian State, it's useful to consider these @global-affairs.bsky.social survey results from May.
Overall, most think the US should not take a side in the conflict, though there are clear partisan differences.
Overall, most think the US should not take a side in the conflict, though there are clear partisan differences.
Excited to be just a few weeks away from the release of "Wheat at War" (pre-orders will ship this Friday)!
As preview, here's the book's opening paragraph.
As preview, here's the book's opening paragraph.
July 29, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Excited to be just a few weeks away from the release of "Wheat at War" (pre-orders will ship this Friday)!
As preview, here's the book's opening paragraph.
As preview, here's the book's opening paragraph.
In short, this quote is just another variant on one of my favorite memes (this one about the value of the humanities):
July 26, 2025 at 12:23 PM
In short, this quote is just another variant on one of my favorite memes (this one about the value of the humanities):
When it comes to AI and Quant tech, recent @global-affairs.bsky.social survey shows that most US respondents want regulation…or don’t know what to think.
July 24, 2025 at 3:05 PM
When it comes to AI and Quant tech, recent @global-affairs.bsky.social survey shows that most US respondents want regulation…or don’t know what to think.
And Trump himself has long enjoyed using letters as a form of diplomacy.
July 20, 2025 at 9:12 PM
And Trump himself has long enjoyed using letters as a form of diplomacy.
Of course, the US has a LONG history of making unilateral declarations of intent!
July 20, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Of course, the US has a LONG history of making unilateral declarations of intent!
Even today, letter's remain an important part of diplomacy.
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July 20, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Even today, letter's remain an important part of diplomacy.
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Recent polls show that Trump's immigration policies are losing support, even among Republicans. That is notable.
But as historic @global-affairs.bsky.social data show, Republicans haven't always been staunchly opposed to immigration, even illegal immigration.
But as historic @global-affairs.bsky.social data show, Republicans haven't always been staunchly opposed to immigration, even illegal immigration.
July 16, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Recent polls show that Trump's immigration policies are losing support, even among Republicans. That is notable.
But as historic @global-affairs.bsky.social data show, Republicans haven't always been staunchly opposed to immigration, even illegal immigration.
But as historic @global-affairs.bsky.social data show, Republicans haven't always been staunchly opposed to immigration, even illegal immigration.
Today marks one month until the release of "Wheat at War" w/ @rosellacappella.bsky.social!
While the book is not yet out, my webpage with a description and replication materials is now up!
Link here: www.paulpoast.com/wheat-at-war
While the book is not yet out, my webpage with a description and replication materials is now up!
Link here: www.paulpoast.com/wheat-at-war
July 15, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Today marks one month until the release of "Wheat at War" w/ @rosellacappella.bsky.social!
While the book is not yet out, my webpage with a description and replication materials is now up!
Link here: www.paulpoast.com/wheat-at-war
While the book is not yet out, my webpage with a description and replication materials is now up!
Link here: www.paulpoast.com/wheat-at-war
But a bigger point, one that I discuss just a bit in the piece, is that the order has long been, at best, fine.
As I wrote:
As I wrote:
July 12, 2025 at 1:58 PM
But a bigger point, one that I discuss just a bit in the piece, is that the order has long been, at best, fine.
As I wrote:
As I wrote:
The Rules-based order is fine, as it always has been.
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July 12, 2025 at 1:58 PM
The Rules-based order is fine, as it always has been.
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At first I thought Trump was making a general statement about US greatness.
Then I realized that they just forgot the word "trading" between "disappointed" and "with"
Then I realized that they just forgot the word "trading" between "disappointed" and "with"
July 9, 2025 at 9:59 PM
At first I thought Trump was making a general statement about US greatness.
Then I realized that they just forgot the word "trading" between "disappointed" and "with"
Then I realized that they just forgot the word "trading" between "disappointed" and "with"
I think they forgot "trading" between "disappointed" and "with"
July 9, 2025 at 9:57 PM
I think they forgot "trading" between "disappointed" and "with"
"Leaders of Countries" is a turn of phrase that I haven't seen capitalized quite that way.
July 9, 2025 at 9:54 PM
"Leaders of Countries" is a turn of phrase that I haven't seen capitalized quite that way.