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profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
8.1K followers 130 following 1.3K posts

International Relations and Foreign Policy. UChicago Prof. Chicago Council Fellow. WPReview Columnist. Still on Twitter/X, but now here too.

https://www.paulpoast.com/

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Economics 22%
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profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Oct 4
From now on, I will be focusing on LinkedIn for posting on social media. I'll still use this platform to observe what people are saying, but I will be posting exclusively on LinkedIn.

If you don't already follow me there, you can find me here:

www.linkedin.com/in/paul-poas...
www.linkedin.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 2d
Trump’s trip to Asia mostly resulted in promises and flattery. But promises alone don’t guarantee follow-through—and that’s often where Trump’s deals break down.

Read more in @profpaulpoast.bsky.social’s latest column:
Trump Didn’t Quite Close the Deal on His Asia Tour
Trump came away with many promises, but everything will now depend on follow-through, which is where his deals often break down.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 4d
Trump came away from his trip to Asia with many promises, but everything will now depend on follow-through, which is where his deals often break down, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
Trump Didn’t Quite Close the Deal on His Asia Tour
Trump came away with many promises, but everything will now depend on follow-through, which is where his deals often break down.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 9d
The first phase of Trump’s Gaza peace plan is proving difficult to maintain, and even if it does ultimately hold, there is a fundamental problem that could undermine the later phases, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Is Set Up for Failure
Phase 1 of Trump’s plan has mostly been implemented, but the subsequent phases are far less likely to succeed.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 11d
Phase 1 of Trump’s Gaza peace plan has mostly been implemented, but as @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, the subsequent phases are far less likely to succeed.
Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Is Set Up for Failure
Phase 1 of Trump’s plan has mostly been implemented, but the subsequent phases are far less likely to succeed.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 16d
Rather than learn the lesson that military force is not sufficient to tackle nonstate actors, the Trump administration is doing it again, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
Trump Hasn’t Learned the Lessons of America’s ‘Forever Wars’
The military campaign against alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean could draw the U.S. into a “forever war” of Trump’s making.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 17d
The military campaign against alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean could draw the U.S. into a “forever war” of Trump’s making, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
Trump Hasn’t Learned the Lessons of America’s ‘Forever Wars’
The military campaign against alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean could draw the U.S. into a “forever war” of Trump’s making.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

rosellacappella.bsky.social
Rosella Cappella Zielinski @rosellacappella.bsky.social · 19d
Thrilled to have an opportunity to revisit Wheat and Strategic Competition for @warontherocks.bsky.social w/ Justin Gilpin CEO Kansas Wheat Commission.

We talk a lot about Russia and China and their most recent attempts to use wheat as a tool of statecraft.

warontherocks.com/2025/10/how-...
How Food Feeds Strategic Competition
In 2022, Rosella Cappella Zielinski and Justin Gilpin wrote, “Breadbasket Diplomacy: Preserving Wheat as a Tool of American Statecraft,” where they argued
warontherocks.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 23d
Nine months into his presidency, it is clearer than ever that Trump wants to take the United States back to the late 19th century, both domestically and in its relations abroad. So how is he doing in that regard?

Columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social examines that question:
Trump’s Vision of American Greatness Is From the Gilded Age
It is now evident that for Trump, the “again” in Make America Great Again refers to the late 19th century.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 25d
It is now evident that, for Trump, the “again” in Make America Great Again refers to the late 19th century, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
Trump’s Vision of American Greatness Is From the Gilded Age
It is now evident that for Trump, the “again” in Make America Great Again refers to the late 19th century.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 29d
What is the best means of crafting and using a military?

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seems to think it is a “warrior ethos.” But as @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, Eisenhower offered a much stronger argument:
As Eisenhower Knew, Hegseth’s ‘Warrior Ethos’ Isn’t What Wins Wars
The U.S. defense secretary’s emphasis on warfighting ignores the other important factors that make a military cohesive and effective.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Kori Schake, Paul Poast, Steve Murdoch

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · Oct 11
Eisenhower wanted a society made up of Americans who were citizens first and soldiers second, and of soldiers who can behave in polite society, effectively offering a counterargument to the “warrior ethos” Pete Hegseth keeps pushing.
As Eisenhower Knew, Hegseth’s ‘Warrior Ethos’ Isn’t What Wins Wars
The U.S. defense secretary’s emphasis on warfighting ignores the other important factors that make a military cohesive and effective.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

wpr.bsky.social
World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · Oct 10
The U.S. defense secretary’s emphasis on warfighting ignores the other important factors that make a military cohesive and effective, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
As Eisenhower Knew, Hegseth’s ‘Warrior Ethos’ Isn’t What Wins Wars
The U.S. defense secretary’s emphasis on warfighting ignores the other important factors that make a military cohesive and effective.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

Reposted by Paul Poast

judah-grunstein.bsky.social
Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · Oct 10
If Patton could have delivered Hegseth’s speech, Eisenhower offered the counterargument in his farewell address. Instead of calling for a warrior culture, he warned of a society so militarized that it prioritized manufacturing weapons over building schools.

Great one by @profpaulpoast.bsky.social.
As Eisenhower Knew, Hegseth’s ‘Warrior Ethos’ Isn’t What Wins Wars
The U.S. defense secretary’s emphasis on warfighting ignores the other important factors that make a military cohesive and effective.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Oct 3
President Donald Trump might not be crying for Argentina, but he does seem concerned about the future of the country’s economy.

In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how the potential "Trump bailout" is just another instance of this time NOT being different.
Trump’s Bailout of Argentina Is Not as Unusual as It Seems
The U.S. pledge to bail out Argentina’s economy may be due to Trump’s bond with Milei, but it’s not unprecedented.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Oct 2
IR Book of the Week!

"War and Power" by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Book argues that the focus on what makes nations "Great Powers" has led to a skewed our understanding of the true sources of power, particularly in the context of war.
War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why
War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why - Kindle edition by O'Brien, Phillips Payson. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why.
www.amazon.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Oct 1
I shared my thoughts on Trump's "Gaza Peace Plan" 👇

TL,DR: There are some real positives, but unclear it will be accepted, hold, or enforced.
Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will acce...
Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will accept t...
www.linkedin.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 30
Additionally, there were a host of comments by Trump & Hegseth that are consistent with this recent @wpr.bsky.social column:

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/interstate-w...
The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless
International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 30
Just posted my immediate thoughts regarding the Hegseth/Trump speeches: TL,DR -- this was a big mistake by both.
My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not… | Pa...
My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not toler...
www.linkedin.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 30
ICYMI: "If the North Atlantic Treaty were to be written today, it might well be formulated as a consultative pact, with Article 4 being its core commitment."

My latest for @wpr.bsky.social explores a key implication of how NATO is responding to Russian airspace incursions.
NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5
That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 29
Trump's UN speech was rooted in “an American First foreign policy” and Trump's own vision of the US as the "indispensable nation".

That is the thought I shared with @salon.com for this piece

www.salon.com/2025/09/27/a...
An Ugly American berates the United Nations — and shames the rest of us
Trump's angry speech before the General Assembly was "coarse absurdist theater"
www.salon.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 29
Looking forward to joining this @carnegiecouncil.org event on Friday as part of "Global Ethics Day". We'll be discussing how we are in a World at War in the midst of democratic backsliding. Thanks to Joshua Acosta for the invitation.

You can RSVP here: info.carnegiecouncil.org/fracturing-d...
Fracturing of Democratic Institutions & the Variations of Autocracy
Join Carnegie Council virtually for a Global Ethics Day event discussing the challenges democracies face and the implications of democratic backsliding.
info.carnegiecouncil.org

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 28
Very true! As I wrote last year, always a worrying sign when a bunch of alliance pacts are forming at once

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/russia-nato-...
A Rush to Form Alliances Is Always a Bad Sign
With a consolidation of competing alliance blocs, the world is entering a perilous time. It may only get worse.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 28
Here is the column

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-article...
NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5
That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 28
The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 26
Article 4, not Article 5, is now the bedrock of NATO. I explain what that means, and how it follows a general trend of alliances being about "consultation" rather than "mutual defense", in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social
NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5
That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 25
IR Book of the Week!

"AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.
AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex
Amazon.com: AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex: 9780691265148: King, Anthony: Books
www.amazon.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 24
I don't mean it in a braggadocious way, but I wrote about how prediction is hard...especially when it comes to world politics. Contrary to Trump's claims, you can't be right about everything.
Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)
Click on the article title to read more.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com

profpaulpoast.bsky.social
Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · Sep 23
Glad I could contribute to this forum on the relevance of the UN after 80 years. I see the UN -- specifically the UNSC -- as largely successful because, "The original purpose of the Security Council was to prevent war between the great powers, not to prevent the great powers from waging war."

Reposted by Paul Poast

global-affairs.bsky.social
Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · Sep 23
As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...
The UN is Turning 80. Is It Still Relevant?
From peace and security to climate and technology, Council experts weigh in on whether the United Nations can still deliver on its founding mission.
globalaffairs.org