The Oracle by Polymarket
@polymarketinfo.bsky.social
News & Views from the World's Largest Prediction Market
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Here's everything we are hoarding this week:
February 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Here's everything we are hoarding this week:
Now that the US election is over, Champions League Soccer has taken over as the highest volume market on Polymarket.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
February 6, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Now that the US election is over, Champions League Soccer has taken over as the highest volume market on Polymarket.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
BREAKING: The trade war is kind of on and kind of off.
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
February 3, 2025 at 6:51 PM
BREAKING: The trade war is kind of on and kind of off.
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
Polymarket has over 27 live prediction markets on DeepSeek and its implications for the AI arms race.
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
January 30, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Polymarket has over 27 live prediction markets on DeepSeek and its implications for the AI arms race.
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
Odds for DOGE Federal job cuts to exceed 200k (highest bracket) are up to 31% after Elon’s “Fork in the Road” email.
January 29, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Odds for DOGE Federal job cuts to exceed 200k (highest bracket) are up to 31% after Elon’s “Fork in the Road” email.
It’s looking like January inflation will come in hotter again.
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
January 27, 2025 at 8:45 PM
It’s looking like January inflation will come in hotter again.
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
NEW:
Why the odds for Trump to quickly launch a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve tanked on inauguration day.
Any what stands in the way of Trump buying our crypto bags:
January 27, 2025 at 3:44 PM
NEW:
Why the odds for Trump to quickly launch a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve tanked on inauguration day.
Any what stands in the way of Trump buying our crypto bags:
Odds for NVIDIA to be world’s largest company on Jan 31 have plummeted after the launch of Deepseek, a Chinese AI model that needs vastly less compute to train
January 27, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Odds for NVIDIA to be world’s largest company on Jan 31 have plummeted after the launch of Deepseek, a Chinese AI model that needs vastly less compute to train
Odds Oracle buys TikTok spike to 70% on a NPR report that Trump administration is brokering a deal.
January 26, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Odds Oracle buys TikTok spike to 70% on a NPR report that Trump administration is brokering a deal.
BREAKING: Pete Hegseth just confirmed as Secretary of Defense.
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
January 25, 2025 at 2:46 AM
BREAKING: Pete Hegseth just confirmed as Secretary of Defense.
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
Tulsi's confirmation odds -12% on a report one Republican senator doubts she makes it through committee.
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
January 23, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Tulsi's confirmation odds -12% on a report one Republican senator doubts she makes it through committee.
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
Netanyahu’s odds of being ousted as Israeli PM this year have more than doubled as the Gaza ceasefire deal was finalized. (🔮 20% → 45%).
January 22, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Netanyahu’s odds of being ousted as Israeli PM this year have more than doubled as the Gaza ceasefire deal was finalized. (🔮 20% → 45%).
Odds for Trump to pardon NYC Mayor Eric Adams have more than doubled in the last week. (🔮 20% -> 44%)
January 22, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Odds for Trump to pardon NYC Mayor Eric Adams have more than doubled in the last week. (🔮 20% -> 44%)
Tulsi Gabbard confirmation odds on the march ( 🔮 50% → 75%) since early December.
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
January 21, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Tulsi Gabbard confirmation odds on the march ( 🔮 50% → 75%) since early December.
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
Tariffs, Pardons, and Executive Orders.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
January 20, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Tariffs, Pardons, and Executive Orders.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
BREAKING: Vivek reportedly out at DOGE
January 19, 2025 at 10:16 PM
BREAKING: Vivek reportedly out at DOGE
Odds that Trump signs a bill, or performs any executive action that restricts abortion are spiking today (🔮 7% 📈 33% odds)
January 19, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Odds that Trump signs a bill, or performs any executive action that restricts abortion are spiking today (🔮 7% 📈 33% odds)
At ~9pm EST last night, Trump posted on Truth Social and X that he had launched a memecoin, called “Official TRUMP”.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
January 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
At ~9pm EST last night, Trump posted on Truth Social and X that he had launched a memecoin, called “Official TRUMP”.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
covered this a bit here.
The bigger declines seemed to be after the Trump-Putin call and Biden allowing strikes inside russia
news.polymarket.com/p/trump-peac...
The bigger declines seemed to be after the Trump-Putin call and Biden allowing strikes inside russia
news.polymarket.com/p/trump-peac...
January 17, 2025 at 1:47 AM
covered this a bit here.
The bigger declines seemed to be after the Trump-Putin call and Biden allowing strikes inside russia
news.polymarket.com/p/trump-peac...
The bigger declines seemed to be after the Trump-Putin call and Biden allowing strikes inside russia
news.polymarket.com/p/trump-peac...
5/ What's Next?
There are many unanswered questions:
- Will the F-35 be replaced by drone swarms?
- Will defense contractors be helped or hurt by the DOGE?
- Which agencies will be impacted most?
- Will the DC real estate market tank?
Subscribe now to get all future articles (Link in bio)
There are many unanswered questions:
- Will the F-35 be replaced by drone swarms?
- Will defense contractors be helped or hurt by the DOGE?
- Which agencies will be impacted most?
- Will the DC real estate market tank?
Subscribe now to get all future articles (Link in bio)
January 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
5/ What's Next?
There are many unanswered questions:
- Will the F-35 be replaced by drone swarms?
- Will defense contractors be helped or hurt by the DOGE?
- Which agencies will be impacted most?
- Will the DC real estate market tank?
Subscribe now to get all future articles (Link in bio)
There are many unanswered questions:
- Will the F-35 be replaced by drone swarms?
- Will defense contractors be helped or hurt by the DOGE?
- Which agencies will be impacted most?
- Will the DC real estate market tank?
Subscribe now to get all future articles (Link in bio)
4/ “Certain Agencies to be Deleted Outright”
The market is skeptical that the Trump administration will be able to slash the DOE, a target of Republican presidents since Reagan.
The market is skeptical that the Trump administration will be able to slash the DOE, a target of Republican presidents since Reagan.
January 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
4/ “Certain Agencies to be Deleted Outright”
The market is skeptical that the Trump administration will be able to slash the DOE, a target of Republican presidents since Reagan.
The market is skeptical that the Trump administration will be able to slash the DOE, a target of Republican presidents since Reagan.
3/ Vivek to Senate?
Odds that Vivek replaces JD Vance in the Senate spiked to 33% odds yesterday following reports Trump has been encouraging him to accept the seat.
Odds that Vivek replaces JD Vance in the Senate spiked to 33% odds yesterday following reports Trump has been encouraging him to accept the seat.
January 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
3/ Vivek to Senate?
Odds that Vivek replaces JD Vance in the Senate spiked to 33% odds yesterday following reports Trump has been encouraging him to accept the seat.
Odds that Vivek replaces JD Vance in the Senate spiked to 33% odds yesterday following reports Trump has been encouraging him to accept the seat.
2/ Federal Job Cuts
The market sees the upper and lower bands as most likely. Boom or bust:
Low Scenario: Under 25k jobs cut ( ~1% of federal workforce): 🔮 36% odds (down from 60s in early Jan)
High Scenario: Over 200k jobs cut ( ~7% of federal workforce): 🔮31% odds (up from the 20s)
The market sees the upper and lower bands as most likely. Boom or bust:
Low Scenario: Under 25k jobs cut ( ~1% of federal workforce): 🔮 36% odds (down from 60s in early Jan)
High Scenario: Over 200k jobs cut ( ~7% of federal workforce): 🔮31% odds (up from the 20s)
January 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
2/ Federal Job Cuts
The market sees the upper and lower bands as most likely. Boom or bust:
Low Scenario: Under 25k jobs cut ( ~1% of federal workforce): 🔮 36% odds (down from 60s in early Jan)
High Scenario: Over 200k jobs cut ( ~7% of federal workforce): 🔮31% odds (up from the 20s)
The market sees the upper and lower bands as most likely. Boom or bust:
Low Scenario: Under 25k jobs cut ( ~1% of federal workforce): 🔮 36% odds (down from 60s in early Jan)
High Scenario: Over 200k jobs cut ( ~7% of federal workforce): 🔮31% odds (up from the 20s)
1/ Government Spending
The market shows 🔮73% odds of a <$250b cut in government spending (the lowest bracket) in Trump's first 6 months.
This would put DOGE on-par with similar budget cutting efforts in the past.
The market shows 🔮73% odds of a <$250b cut in government spending (the lowest bracket) in Trump's first 6 months.
This would put DOGE on-par with similar budget cutting efforts in the past.
January 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
1/ Government Spending
The market shows 🔮73% odds of a <$250b cut in government spending (the lowest bracket) in Trump's first 6 months.
This would put DOGE on-par with similar budget cutting efforts in the past.
The market shows 🔮73% odds of a <$250b cut in government spending (the lowest bracket) in Trump's first 6 months.
This would put DOGE on-par with similar budget cutting efforts in the past.
What do the first six months of @DOGE look like according to Polymarket odds?
January 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
What do the first six months of @DOGE look like according to Polymarket odds?