The Oracle by Polymarket
@polymarketinfo.bsky.social
News & Views from the World's Largest Prediction Market
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Now that the US election is over, Champions League Soccer has taken over as the highest volume market on Polymarket.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
Reposted by The Oracle by Polymarket
Talked to polymaket about the odds as i see em news.polymarket.com/p/inside-the...
🔮 Inside the Dems’ Shutdown War Room
Democratic organizer talks Schumer’s strategy and 2028 dark horses
news.polymarket.com
October 17, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Talked to polymaket about the odds as i see em news.polymarket.com/p/inside-the...
🔮 TARIFF REFUND?
Former White House trade lawyer @petereharrell.bsky.social breaks down the exact moments when conservative Supreme Court justices turned skeptical of Trump's tariff case.
And what it means for his promised $2,000 tariff checks.
poly.market/Hfklqmd
Former White House trade lawyer @petereharrell.bsky.social breaks down the exact moments when conservative Supreme Court justices turned skeptical of Trump's tariff case.
And what it means for his promised $2,000 tariff checks.
poly.market/Hfklqmd
Read 👉
poly.market
November 11, 2025 at 2:12 PM
🔮 TARIFF REFUND?
Former White House trade lawyer @petereharrell.bsky.social breaks down the exact moments when conservative Supreme Court justices turned skeptical of Trump's tariff case.
And what it means for his promised $2,000 tariff checks.
poly.market/Hfklqmd
Former White House trade lawyer @petereharrell.bsky.social breaks down the exact moments when conservative Supreme Court justices turned skeptical of Trump's tariff case.
And what it means for his promised $2,000 tariff checks.
poly.market/Hfklqmd
Here's everything we are hoarding this week:
February 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Here's everything we are hoarding this week:
Now that the US election is over, Champions League Soccer has taken over as the highest volume market on Polymarket.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
February 6, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Now that the US election is over, Champions League Soccer has taken over as the highest volume market on Polymarket.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
Liverpool is the favorite to win in Munich, but a dark horse is dominating the transaction volume.
BREAKING: The trade war is kind of on and kind of off.
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
February 3, 2025 at 6:51 PM
BREAKING: The trade war is kind of on and kind of off.
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
Today:
- Latest moves on Canada and Mexico tariffs
- Why Polymarket traders didn’t believe tariffs were coming even though Trump told us over and over
- How long will it last?
- Canada deal before the Strategic Bourbon Reserve is depleted?
Polymarket has over 27 live prediction markets on DeepSeek and its implications for the AI arms race.
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
January 30, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Polymarket has over 27 live prediction markets on DeepSeek and its implications for the AI arms race.
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
In today’s Oracle by Jeb Ory:
- Nasdaq winners and losers from DeepSeek
- Odds DeepSeek used banned Chips
- How OpenAI will respond
- Odds for AGI this year
Odds for DOGE Federal job cuts to exceed 200k (highest bracket) are up to 31% after Elon’s “Fork in the Road” email.
January 29, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Odds for DOGE Federal job cuts to exceed 200k (highest bracket) are up to 31% after Elon’s “Fork in the Road” email.
It’s looking like January inflation will come in hotter again.
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
January 27, 2025 at 8:45 PM
It’s looking like January inflation will come in hotter again.
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
🔮 78% odds for Jan inflation at or above 2.9%.
How much are you paying for a dozen eggs?
NEW:
Why the odds for Trump to quickly launch a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve tanked on inauguration day.
Any what stands in the way of Trump buying our crypto bags:
January 27, 2025 at 3:44 PM
NEW:
Why the odds for Trump to quickly launch a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve tanked on inauguration day.
Any what stands in the way of Trump buying our crypto bags:
Odds for NVIDIA to be world’s largest company on Jan 31 have plummeted after the launch of Deepseek, a Chinese AI model that needs vastly less compute to train
January 27, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Odds for NVIDIA to be world’s largest company on Jan 31 have plummeted after the launch of Deepseek, a Chinese AI model that needs vastly less compute to train
Odds Oracle buys TikTok spike to 70% on a NPR report that Trump administration is brokering a deal.
January 26, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Odds Oracle buys TikTok spike to 70% on a NPR report that Trump administration is brokering a deal.
BREAKING: Pete Hegseth just confirmed as Secretary of Defense.
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
January 25, 2025 at 2:46 AM
BREAKING: Pete Hegseth just confirmed as Secretary of Defense.
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
But Mitch McConnell voting against Hegseth seems to have hurt the confirmation odds of Tulsi Gabbard (🔮 54%) and RFK Jr. (🔮74%).
Tulsi's confirmation odds -12% on a report one Republican senator doubts she makes it through committee.
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
January 23, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Tulsi's confirmation odds -12% on a report one Republican senator doubts she makes it through committee.
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
Today: Can Trump score a quick ceasefire the Russia-Ukraine following the Gaza deal?
PLUS: Will Lex Fridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
Odds for Trump to pardon NYC Mayor Eric Adams have more than doubled in the last week. (🔮 20% -> 44%)
January 22, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Odds for Trump to pardon NYC Mayor Eric Adams have more than doubled in the last week. (🔮 20% -> 44%)
Tulsi Gabbard confirmation odds on the march ( 🔮 50% → 75%) since early December.
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
January 21, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Tulsi Gabbard confirmation odds on the march ( 🔮 50% → 75%) since early December.
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
Do her enemies really have anything better than her trip to Syria in 2017?
Tariffs, Pardons, and Executive Orders.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
January 20, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Tariffs, Pardons, and Executive Orders.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
Today's Oracle previews everything we can expect from day one of the second Trump Administration.
BREAKING: Vivek reportedly out at DOGE
January 19, 2025 at 10:16 PM
BREAKING: Vivek reportedly out at DOGE
Odds that Trump signs a bill, or performs any executive action that restricts abortion are spiking today (🔮 7% 📈 33% odds)
January 19, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Odds that Trump signs a bill, or performs any executive action that restricts abortion are spiking today (🔮 7% 📈 33% odds)
Reposted by The Oracle by Polymarket
The probability that Friedrich Merz will become the new Chancellor of Germany, according to Polymarket, is 89%.
January 18, 2025 at 6:28 PM
The probability that Friedrich Merz will become the new Chancellor of Germany, according to Polymarket, is 89%.
At ~9pm EST last night, Trump posted on Truth Social and X that he had launched a memecoin, called “Official TRUMP”.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
January 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
At ~9pm EST last night, Trump posted on Truth Social and X that he had launched a memecoin, called “Official TRUMP”.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
Overnight the coin soared to being the 38th largest crypto asset with a $4.2b market cap.
Is it real? Or were both of Trump’s accounts hacked at once?
🔮 4% chance it was a hack.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court Just Upheld the TikTok Ban.
Latest Odds on Polymarket:
Ban goes into effect by May (🔮 80% odds)
Trump saves it in first 100 days (🔮 75%)
Trump saves it in first week (🔮 59%)
Sale announced by April (🔮 32%)
Elon Musk buys TikTok (🔮 12%)
MrBeast buys TikTok (🔮7%)
Latest Odds on Polymarket:
Ban goes into effect by May (🔮 80% odds)
Trump saves it in first 100 days (🔮 75%)
Trump saves it in first week (🔮 59%)
Sale announced by April (🔮 32%)
Elon Musk buys TikTok (🔮 12%)
MrBeast buys TikTok (🔮7%)
January 17, 2025 at 3:12 PM
BREAKING: The Supreme Court Just Upheld the TikTok Ban.
Latest Odds on Polymarket:
Ban goes into effect by May (🔮 80% odds)
Trump saves it in first 100 days (🔮 75%)
Trump saves it in first week (🔮 59%)
Sale announced by April (🔮 32%)
Elon Musk buys TikTok (🔮 12%)
MrBeast buys TikTok (🔮7%)
Latest Odds on Polymarket:
Ban goes into effect by May (🔮 80% odds)
Trump saves it in first 100 days (🔮 75%)
Trump saves it in first week (🔮 59%)
Sale announced by April (🔮 32%)
Elon Musk buys TikTok (🔮 12%)
MrBeast buys TikTok (🔮7%)
What do the first six months of @DOGE look like according to Polymarket odds?
January 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
What do the first six months of @DOGE look like according to Polymarket odds?
Odds Trump imposes tariffs on Canada in his first week spiked this morning (🔮 30% 📈 43%) on a Truth Social post announcing plans to establish an “External Revenue Service”
Time to start hoarding maple syrup?
Time to start hoarding maple syrup?
January 14, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Odds Trump imposes tariffs on Canada in his first week spiked this morning (🔮 30% 📈 43%) on a Truth Social post announcing plans to establish an “External Revenue Service”
Time to start hoarding maple syrup?
Time to start hoarding maple syrup?
Odds of an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire by Month-End Just Hit 90%
- Qatari mediators say talks are in “final stages”
- Hamas to release 33 hostages for “hundreds” of Palestinians
- 16 days later talks would begin on final end to war
- Trump: “all hell will break loose” if no deal by inauguration
- Qatari mediators say talks are in “final stages”
- Hamas to release 33 hostages for “hundreds” of Palestinians
- 16 days later talks would begin on final end to war
- Trump: “all hell will break loose” if no deal by inauguration
January 14, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Odds of an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire by Month-End Just Hit 90%
- Qatari mediators say talks are in “final stages”
- Hamas to release 33 hostages for “hundreds” of Palestinians
- 16 days later talks would begin on final end to war
- Trump: “all hell will break loose” if no deal by inauguration
- Qatari mediators say talks are in “final stages”
- Hamas to release 33 hostages for “hundreds” of Palestinians
- 16 days later talks would begin on final end to war
- Trump: “all hell will break loose” if no deal by inauguration
Who Will Attend Trump's Inauguration?
- Joe Biden (🔮 98%)
- Javier Milei (🔮95% )
- Mark Zuckerberg (🔮 82%)
- Michelle Obama (🔮 71%)
- Benjamin Netanyahu (🔮11% )
- Tesla Humanoid Robot(🔮 5%):
- Joe Biden (🔮 98%)
- Javier Milei (🔮95% )
- Mark Zuckerberg (🔮 82%)
- Michelle Obama (🔮 71%)
- Benjamin Netanyahu (🔮11% )
- Tesla Humanoid Robot(🔮 5%):
January 13, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Who Will Attend Trump's Inauguration?
- Joe Biden (🔮 98%)
- Javier Milei (🔮95% )
- Mark Zuckerberg (🔮 82%)
- Michelle Obama (🔮 71%)
- Benjamin Netanyahu (🔮11% )
- Tesla Humanoid Robot(🔮 5%):
- Joe Biden (🔮 98%)
- Javier Milei (🔮95% )
- Mark Zuckerberg (🔮 82%)
- Michelle Obama (🔮 71%)
- Benjamin Netanyahu (🔮11% )
- Tesla Humanoid Robot(🔮 5%):