William Bowe
@pollbludger.bsky.social
Publisher of the Australian elections and polling website pollbludger.net
I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
September 13, 2025 at 9:41 AM
I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
September 13, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
Reposted by William Bowe
Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.
Tasmanian Labor just bought itself an extra year in opposition
www.crikey.com.au
July 21, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.
Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes
First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...
July 19, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes
First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...
July 19, 2025 at 8:47 AM
First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...
You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
July 17, 2025 at 9:05 AM
You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
Reposted by William Bowe
For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes
Podcast #153: Tasmania’s election landscape
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the latest Tasmanian state polls and go through Tasmania’s five electorates one by one, discussing the race and possible winners…
www.tallyroom.com.au
July 15, 2025 at 4:15 AM
For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes
YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...
Tasmanian election: YouGov poll and election guide - The Poll Bludger
A new poll finds Labor well placed to emerge from the Tasmanian state election as largest party, but well short of a majority.
www.pollbludger.net
June 30, 2025 at 10:36 AM
YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...
A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...
YouGov: 67-33 to Labor in South Australia - The Poll Bludger
A rare South Australian state poll finds Labor on course for one of the biggest landslides in Australian electoral history.
www.pollbludger.net
June 20, 2025 at 6:10 PM
A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...
The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.
Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
www.pollbludger.net
May 20, 2025 at 6:58 AM
The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.
Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
www.pollbludger.net
May 20, 2025 at 6:49 AM
Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...
Late counting: week three - The Poll Bludger
Resolutions imminent for the remaining outstanding lower house seats, which likely just means Bradfield and Calwell.
www.pollbludger.net
May 20, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...
Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
pollbludger.net
May 19, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
They're drowning in it
Cold water for the Australian- more please!
May 19, 2025 at 3:58 AM
They're drowning in it
It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going
I feel bad about asking because you provide such a great service, which I only occassionally donate to, but is there a reason results have stopped updating on your page since Friday? It's so much easier to find certain information than on the AEC site.
May 19, 2025 at 3:49 AM
It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going
2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...
theaustralian.com.au
May 19, 2025 at 12:04 AM
2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...
Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...
Senate counting: week three - The Poll Bludger
A second attempt to model the Senate outcome, with some finer points concerning the composition of the cross-bench chiefly at issue.
www.pollbludger.net
May 18, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...
Reposted by William Bowe
Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck?
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
May 16, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck?
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
www.pollbludger.net
May 13, 2025 at 5:37 AM
Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
My database records 13: ten Labor (Plibersek, Leigh, Albanese, Rishworth, Husic, Dick, Thistlethwaite, Rowland and Chalmers) and three Nationals (Chester, Joyce, Webster). Rishworth an interesting case: she gained Kingston from the Libs in 2007, and redistributions have done her more harm than good.
AFAICT, only eight candidates in the 2025 election received a majority of first preference votes. Four Labor, four National, zero Liberal. Until about 2000, this was the normal outcome #auspol
en.wikipedia.org/wik...
en.wikipedia.org/wik...
May 12, 2025 at 8:02 AM
My database records 13: ten Labor (Plibersek, Leigh, Albanese, Rishworth, Husic, Dick, Thistlethwaite, Rowland and Chalmers) and three Nationals (Chester, Joyce, Webster). Rishworth an interesting case: she gained Kingston from the Libs in 2007, and redistributions have done her more harm than good.
Queensland is ALP 2, LNP 2, GRN 1, ON 1, and NSW, VIC and SA are ALP 3, L-NP 2, GRN 1. With the territories status quo, likely final numbers are ALP 30, L-NP 27, GRN 11, ON 2, plus Lambie, Pocock, Babet, Tyrell, Thorpe and Payman.
According to the Poll Bludger's sophistimucated modelling, two Senate contests are in doubt: WA, either ALP 3, LIB 2, GRN 1 or (less likely) ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, ON 1; and TAS, either ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, JLN 1 or (less likely) ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1, JLN 1. pollbludger.net/2025/05/11/l...
Late counting: the Senate - The Poll Bludger
A look at the other aspect of the Labor triumph: a Senate in which the balance of power has been titled distinctly leftward.
pollbludger.net
May 11, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Queensland is ALP 2, LNP 2, GRN 1, ON 1, and NSW, VIC and SA are ALP 3, L-NP 2, GRN 1. With the territories status quo, likely final numbers are ALP 30, L-NP 27, GRN 11, ON 2, plus Lambie, Pocock, Babet, Tyrell, Thorpe and Payman.
According to the Poll Bludger's sophistimucated modelling, two Senate contests are in doubt: WA, either ALP 3, LIB 2, GRN 1 or (less likely) ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, ON 1; and TAS, either ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, JLN 1 or (less likely) ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1, JLN 1. pollbludger.net/2025/05/11/l...
Late counting: the Senate - The Poll Bludger
A look at the other aspect of the Labor triumph: a Senate in which the balance of power has been titled distinctly leftward.
pollbludger.net
May 11, 2025 at 7:58 AM
According to the Poll Bludger's sophistimucated modelling, two Senate contests are in doubt: WA, either ALP 3, LIB 2, GRN 1 or (less likely) ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, ON 1; and TAS, either ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, JLN 1 or (less likely) ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1, JLN 1. pollbludger.net/2025/05/11/l...
Reposted by William Bowe
Labor won a landslide with barely a third of the vote. Now all eyes will move to the Senate, with a shift leftwards on the cards if the Coalition's disastrous lower house vote is anything to go by.
Forget the lower house, the game-changing shift could be Senate's tilt to the left
The Coalition looks set to be reduced to 27 seats — two fewer than at any time since the Senate assumed its current size in 1984.
www.crikey.com.au
May 4, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Labor won a landslide with barely a third of the vote. Now all eyes will move to the Senate, with a shift leftwards on the cards if the Coalition's disastrous lower house vote is anything to go by.
With polls closed on the eastern seaboard, the Poll Bludger's live results feature is in business: pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
pollbludger.net
May 3, 2025 at 8:08 AM
With polls closed on the eastern seaboard, the Poll Bludger's live results feature is in business: pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...