Political Analysis
@polanalysis.bsky.social
Official Journal of the Society for Political Methodology
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis
Currently in FirstView: In “Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models,” Erin Lipman, Scott Moser, and Abel Rodriguez extend spatial voting models with a hierarchical Bayesian approach that estimates legislators’ ideal points.
November 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models,” Erin Lipman, Scott Moser, and Abel Rodriguez extend spatial voting models with a hierarchical Bayesian approach that estimates legislators’ ideal points.
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings,” @cbarrie.bsky.social, Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social, and Mossaab Bagdouri introduce a method for estimating media criticism using à la carte word embeddings which requires only minimal computational resources.
November 4, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings,” @cbarrie.bsky.social, Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social, and Mossaab Bagdouri introduce a method for estimating media criticism using à la carte word embeddings which requires only minimal computational resources.
Currently in FirstView: In “An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology,” @kevinlcope.bsky.social develops a method for estimating the ideology of federal judges. He introduces the Jurist-Derived Judicial Ideology Score (JuDJIS) which is based on over 20,000 evaluations by a sample of jurists.
October 30, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology,” @kevinlcope.bsky.social develops a method for estimating the ideology of federal judges. He introduces the Jurist-Derived Judicial Ideology Score (JuDJIS) which is based on over 20,000 evaluations by a sample of jurists.
Currently in FirstView: “Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos.” @marvins.bsky.social and @fhopp.bsky.social examine 810 party manifestos in 4 languages to study how different instruments lead to different results for extracting moral foundations.
October 28, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos.” @marvins.bsky.social and @fhopp.bsky.social examine 810 party manifestos in 4 languages to study how different instruments lead to different results for extracting moral foundations.
Currently in FirstView: In “Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision,” Jonathan Colner describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free software. This method is useful for poorly-formatted sources that require researchers to extract each item by hand.
October 21, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision,” Jonathan Colner describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free software. This method is useful for poorly-formatted sources that require researchers to extract each item by hand.
Currently in FirstView: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” by David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, and Håvard Hegre. The authors discuss bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) as an alternative to models that lack uncertainty estimates.
October 17, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” by David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, and Håvard Hegre. The authors discuss bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) as an alternative to models that lack uncertainty estimates.
Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.
October 14, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.
Currently in FirstView: "Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction." @zmarkovich.bsky.social introduces the Compliance Probability Weighting estimator, which enables inference about the LATE without relying on monotonicity or principal ignorability.
October 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: "Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction." @zmarkovich.bsky.social introduces the Compliance Probability Weighting estimator, which enables inference about the LATE without relying on monotonicity or principal ignorability.
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.
October 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.
Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.
October 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.
Currently in FirstView: In “Accessibility and Equity in the Research Process: Gender Bias in Elite Interview Recruitment,” Margaret A. T. Kenney and John Salchak study how researcher identity affects the research process. Specifically, they look at how this influences elite interview recruitment.
September 30, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Accessibility and Equity in the Research Process: Gender Bias in Elite Interview Recruitment,” Margaret A. T. Kenney and John Salchak study how researcher identity affects the research process. Specifically, they look at how this influences elite interview recruitment.
The latest issue of PA is out now. We have a great collection of papers by @yamilrvelez.bsky.social, @sysilviakim.bsky.social, @mattblackwell.bsky.social, @sophieehill.bsky.social, @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social, @kaipingchen.bsky.social, @samuelbaltz.bsky.social (1/2)
September 29, 2025 at 3:45 PM
The latest issue of PA is out now. We have a great collection of papers by @yamilrvelez.bsky.social, @sysilviakim.bsky.social, @mattblackwell.bsky.social, @sophieehill.bsky.social, @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social, @kaipingchen.bsky.social, @samuelbaltz.bsky.social (1/2)
Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.
September 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.
Currently in FirstView: “Fixed Effects, Lagged Dependent Variables, and Bracketing: Cautionary Remarks” by Matei Demetrescu, Manuel Frondel, Lukas Tomberg, and Colin Vance investigates a bracketing property used to yield bounds on treatment effects from fixed effects and lagged DV models.
September 16, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Fixed Effects, Lagged Dependent Variables, and Bracketing: Cautionary Remarks” by Matei Demetrescu, Manuel Frondel, Lukas Tomberg, and Colin Vance investigates a bracketing property used to yield bounds on treatment effects from fixed effects and lagged DV models.
Reposted by Political Analysis
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data - cup.org/460fgFn
- Badredine Arfi
#FirstView
Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data - cup.org/460fgFn
- Badredine Arfi
#FirstView
September 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data - cup.org/460fgFn
- Badredine Arfi
#FirstView
Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data - cup.org/460fgFn
- Badredine Arfi
#FirstView
Currently in FirstView: In “Attention and Political Choice: A Foundation for Eye Tracking in Political Science,” Libby Jenke and Nicolette Sullivan explain what eye tracking allows researchers to measure and how these measures are relevant to political science questions.
September 2, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Attention and Political Choice: A Foundation for Eye Tracking in Political Science,” Libby Jenke and Nicolette Sullivan explain what eye tracking allows researchers to measure and how these measures are relevant to political science questions.
Reposted by Political Analysis
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Decomposing Network Influence: Social Influence Regression - cup.org/3UKZjwv
"provides a statistical mechanism for explaining actor influence based on observable traits"
- Shahryar Minhas & Peter D. Hoff
#FirstView
Decomposing Network Influence: Social Influence Regression - cup.org/3UKZjwv
"provides a statistical mechanism for explaining actor influence based on observable traits"
- Shahryar Minhas & Peter D. Hoff
#FirstView
August 27, 2025 at 7:26 AM
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Decomposing Network Influence: Social Influence Regression - cup.org/3UKZjwv
"provides a statistical mechanism for explaining actor influence based on observable traits"
- Shahryar Minhas & Peter D. Hoff
#FirstView
Decomposing Network Influence: Social Influence Regression - cup.org/3UKZjwv
"provides a statistical mechanism for explaining actor influence based on observable traits"
- Shahryar Minhas & Peter D. Hoff
#FirstView
Currently in FirstView: “Mapping (A)Ideology: A Taxonomy of European Parties Using Generative LLMs as Zero-Shot Learners.” Riccardo Di Leo, @zengchen.bsky.social, @eliasdinas.bsky.social, and @redatamtam.bsky.social see if ML can obtain measures of party ideology that match the validity of experts.
August 26, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Mapping (A)Ideology: A Taxonomy of European Parties Using Generative LLMs as Zero-Shot Learners.” Riccardo Di Leo, @zengchen.bsky.social, @eliasdinas.bsky.social, and @redatamtam.bsky.social see if ML can obtain measures of party ideology that match the validity of experts.
Currently in FirstView: “Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content.” @kaipingchen.bsky.social and and colleagues introduce “vec-tionaries” which are embedding-based tools for measuring latent features of messages.
August 20, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content.” @kaipingchen.bsky.social and and colleagues introduce “vec-tionaries” which are embedding-based tools for measuring latent features of messages.
Currently in FirstView: In “Seeing Like a District: Understanding What Close-Election Designs for Leader Characteristics Can and Cannot Tell Us,” Andrew Bertoli and Chad Hazlett examine the limitations of politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs.
August 15, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Seeing Like a District: Understanding What Close-Election Designs for Leader Characteristics Can and Cannot Tell Us,” Andrew Bertoli and Chad Hazlett examine the limitations of politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs.
We are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social, and @garyzu.bsky.social.
August 8, 2025 at 6:49 PM
We are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social, and @garyzu.bsky.social.
Reposted by Political Analysis
The latest winning article of the @polanalysis.bsky.social Editors' choice has been announced, find out more - cup.org/4551W22
The articles represent papers that the Editors see as providing an especially significant contribution to political methodology.
The articles represent papers that the Editors see as providing an especially significant contribution to political methodology.
August 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM
The latest winning article of the @polanalysis.bsky.social Editors' choice has been announced, find out more - cup.org/4551W22
The articles represent papers that the Editors see as providing an especially significant contribution to political methodology.
The articles represent papers that the Editors see as providing an especially significant contribution to political methodology.
Reposted by Political Analysis
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision - cup.org/3IMLbjB
"This letter describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free models and software"
- Jonathan Colner
#FirstView
Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision - cup.org/3IMLbjB
"This letter describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free models and software"
- Jonathan Colner
#FirstView
July 31, 2025 at 10:10 AM
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision - cup.org/3IMLbjB
"This letter describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free models and software"
- Jonathan Colner
#FirstView
Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision - cup.org/3IMLbjB
"This letter describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free models and software"
- Jonathan Colner
#FirstView
Reposted by Political Analysis
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict - cup.org/4mjbJHl
- David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams & Håvard Hegre
#FirstView
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict - cup.org/4mjbJHl
- David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams & Håvard Hegre
#FirstView
July 30, 2025 at 10:35 AM
#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social -
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict - cup.org/4mjbJHl
- David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams & Håvard Hegre
#FirstView
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict - cup.org/4mjbJHl
- David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams & Håvard Hegre
#FirstView
Currently in FirstView: In “Priming Bias Versus Post-Treatment Bias in Experimental Designs,” @mattblackwell.bsky.social, Jacob Brown, @sophieehill.bsky.social, Kosuke Imai, and Teppei Yamamoto analyze the trade-off between post-treatment and priming biases in survey experiments.
July 28, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Priming Bias Versus Post-Treatment Bias in Experimental Designs,” @mattblackwell.bsky.social, Jacob Brown, @sophieehill.bsky.social, Kosuke Imai, and Teppei Yamamoto analyze the trade-off between post-treatment and priming biases in survey experiments.