Political Analysis
@polanalysis.bsky.social
Official Journal of the Society for Political Methodology
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis
Currently in FirstView: In “Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models,” Erin Lipman, Scott Moser, and Abel Rodriguez extend spatial voting models with a hierarchical Bayesian approach that estimates legislators’ ideal points.
November 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models,” Erin Lipman, Scott Moser, and Abel Rodriguez extend spatial voting models with a hierarchical Bayesian approach that estimates legislators’ ideal points.
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings,” @cbarrie.bsky.social, Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social, and Mossaab Bagdouri introduce a method for estimating media criticism using à la carte word embeddings which requires only minimal computational resources.
November 4, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings,” @cbarrie.bsky.social, Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social, and Mossaab Bagdouri introduce a method for estimating media criticism using à la carte word embeddings which requires only minimal computational resources.
Currently in FirstView: In “An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology,” @kevinlcope.bsky.social develops a method for estimating the ideology of federal judges. He introduces the Jurist-Derived Judicial Ideology Score (JuDJIS) which is based on over 20,000 evaluations by a sample of jurists.
October 30, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology,” @kevinlcope.bsky.social develops a method for estimating the ideology of federal judges. He introduces the Jurist-Derived Judicial Ideology Score (JuDJIS) which is based on over 20,000 evaluations by a sample of jurists.
Currently in FirstView: “Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos.” @marvins.bsky.social and @fhopp.bsky.social examine 810 party manifestos in 4 languages to study how different instruments lead to different results for extracting moral foundations.
October 28, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos.” @marvins.bsky.social and @fhopp.bsky.social examine 810 party manifestos in 4 languages to study how different instruments lead to different results for extracting moral foundations.
Currently in FirstView: In “Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision,” Jonathan Colner describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free software. This method is useful for poorly-formatted sources that require researchers to extract each item by hand.
October 21, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision,” Jonathan Colner describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free software. This method is useful for poorly-formatted sources that require researchers to extract each item by hand.
Currently in FirstView: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” by David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, and Håvard Hegre. The authors discuss bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) as an alternative to models that lack uncertainty estimates.
October 17, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” by David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, and Håvard Hegre. The authors discuss bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) as an alternative to models that lack uncertainty estimates.
Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.
October 14, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.
Currently in FirstView: "Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction." @zmarkovich.bsky.social introduces the Compliance Probability Weighting estimator, which enables inference about the LATE without relying on monotonicity or principal ignorability.
October 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: "Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction." @zmarkovich.bsky.social introduces the Compliance Probability Weighting estimator, which enables inference about the LATE without relying on monotonicity or principal ignorability.
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.
October 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.
Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.
October 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.
Currently in FirstView: In “Accessibility and Equity in the Research Process: Gender Bias in Elite Interview Recruitment,” Margaret A. T. Kenney and John Salchak study how researcher identity affects the research process. Specifically, they look at how this influences elite interview recruitment.
September 30, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Accessibility and Equity in the Research Process: Gender Bias in Elite Interview Recruitment,” Margaret A. T. Kenney and John Salchak study how researcher identity affects the research process. Specifically, they look at how this influences elite interview recruitment.
Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.
September 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.
Currently in FirstView: “Fixed Effects, Lagged Dependent Variables, and Bracketing: Cautionary Remarks” by Matei Demetrescu, Manuel Frondel, Lukas Tomberg, and Colin Vance investigates a bracketing property used to yield bounds on treatment effects from fixed effects and lagged DV models.
September 16, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Fixed Effects, Lagged Dependent Variables, and Bracketing: Cautionary Remarks” by Matei Demetrescu, Manuel Frondel, Lukas Tomberg, and Colin Vance investigates a bracketing property used to yield bounds on treatment effects from fixed effects and lagged DV models.
Currently in FirstView: In “Attention and Political Choice: A Foundation for Eye Tracking in Political Science,” Libby Jenke and Nicolette Sullivan explain what eye tracking allows researchers to measure and how these measures are relevant to political science questions.
September 2, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Attention and Political Choice: A Foundation for Eye Tracking in Political Science,” Libby Jenke and Nicolette Sullivan explain what eye tracking allows researchers to measure and how these measures are relevant to political science questions.
Currently in FirstView: “Mapping (A)Ideology: A Taxonomy of European Parties Using Generative LLMs as Zero-Shot Learners.” Riccardo Di Leo, @zengchen.bsky.social, @eliasdinas.bsky.social, and @redatamtam.bsky.social see if ML can obtain measures of party ideology that match the validity of experts.
August 26, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Mapping (A)Ideology: A Taxonomy of European Parties Using Generative LLMs as Zero-Shot Learners.” Riccardo Di Leo, @zengchen.bsky.social, @eliasdinas.bsky.social, and @redatamtam.bsky.social see if ML can obtain measures of party ideology that match the validity of experts.
Currently in FirstView: “Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content.” @kaipingchen.bsky.social and and colleagues introduce “vec-tionaries” which are embedding-based tools for measuring latent features of messages.
August 20, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content.” @kaipingchen.bsky.social and and colleagues introduce “vec-tionaries” which are embedding-based tools for measuring latent features of messages.
Currently in FirstView: In “Seeing Like a District: Understanding What Close-Election Designs for Leader Characteristics Can and Cannot Tell Us,” Andrew Bertoli and Chad Hazlett examine the limitations of politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs.
August 15, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Seeing Like a District: Understanding What Close-Election Designs for Leader Characteristics Can and Cannot Tell Us,” Andrew Bertoli and Chad Hazlett examine the limitations of politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs.
We are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social, and @garyzu.bsky.social.
August 8, 2025 at 6:49 PM
We are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social, and @garyzu.bsky.social.
Currently in FirstView: In “Priming Bias Versus Post-Treatment Bias in Experimental Designs,” @mattblackwell.bsky.social, Jacob Brown, @sophieehill.bsky.social, Kosuke Imai, and Teppei Yamamoto analyze the trade-off between post-treatment and priming biases in survey experiments.
July 28, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Priming Bias Versus Post-Treatment Bias in Experimental Designs,” @mattblackwell.bsky.social, Jacob Brown, @sophieehill.bsky.social, Kosuke Imai, and Teppei Yamamoto analyze the trade-off between post-treatment and priming biases in survey experiments.
Currently in FirstView: In “Addressing Measurement Errors in Ranking Questions for the Social Sciences,” Yuki Atsusaka and @sysilviakim.bsky.social examine the statistical consequences of measurement error and introduce a framework for improving ranking data analysis.
July 17, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Addressing Measurement Errors in Ranking Questions for the Social Sciences,” Yuki Atsusaka and @sysilviakim.bsky.social examine the statistical consequences of measurement error and introduce a framework for improving ranking data analysis.
Currently in FirstView: In “The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Political Science,” @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social, and Hillel David Soifer discuss the MAUP and how the size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect empirical results.
July 7, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Political Science,” @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social, and Hillel David Soifer discuss the MAUP and how the size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect empirical results.
Currently in FirstView: In “Odd Profiles in Conjoint Experimental Designs: Effects on Survey-Taking Attention and Behavior,” Kirk Bansak and Libby Jenke consider how survey-takers respond to odd combinations of conjoint attributes.
June 17, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Odd Profiles in Conjoint Experimental Designs: Effects on Survey-Taking Attention and Behavior,” Kirk Bansak and Libby Jenke consider how survey-takers respond to odd combinations of conjoint attributes.
Currently in FirstView: In “Crowdsourced Adaptive Surveys,” @yamilrvelez.bsky.social introduces a methodology (CSAS) that converts open-ended text from participants into survey items and applies a multi-armed bandit algorithm to determine which questions should be prioritized in the survey.
June 4, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Crowdsourced Adaptive Surveys,” @yamilrvelez.bsky.social introduces a methodology (CSAS) that converts open-ended text from participants into survey items and applies a multi-armed bandit algorithm to determine which questions should be prioritized in the survey.
Currently in FirstView: “Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging.” @glemens.bsky.social and @ainagallego.bsky.social use a variety of LLMs to take in political texts and position political actors in policy and ideological space.
May 28, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging.” @glemens.bsky.social and @ainagallego.bsky.social use a variety of LLMs to take in political texts and position political actors in policy and ideological space.
Currently in FirstView: “The Probability of Casting a Pivotal Vote in an Instant Runoff Voting Election.” @samuelbaltz.bsky.social derives all the ways that a single ballot can change the result of an instant runoff voting election, for any number of candidates and voters.
May 19, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Currently in FirstView: “The Probability of Casting a Pivotal Vote in an Instant Runoff Voting Election.” @samuelbaltz.bsky.social derives all the ways that a single ballot can change the result of an instant runoff voting election, for any number of candidates and voters.