The People Mover Who Was Promised
@pmwwp.givesky.social
Into rail, stats, economics, basketball, dogs, YIMBYISM and normcore (no lightcone) EA. Sometimes wrong, always chugging along.
Nah everyone on this thread is integral to this site.
January 28, 2026 at 3:33 AM
Nah everyone on this thread is integral to this site.
This would seem to be exhonerating. bsky.app/profile/ryan...
January 27, 2026 at 11:34 PM
This would seem to be exhonerating. bsky.app/profile/ryan...
Derek Thompson's post was responding to CBS claim.
January 27, 2026 at 11:33 PM
Derek Thompson's post was responding to CBS claim.
The claim appears to be false. bsky.app/profile/ryan...
January 27, 2026 at 11:25 PM
The claim appears to be false. bsky.app/profile/ryan...
The claim appears to be false. bsky.app/profile/ryan...
January 27, 2026 at 11:25 PM
The claim appears to be false. bsky.app/profile/ryan...
the US would outweigh this.
January 27, 2026 at 10:38 PM
the US would outweigh this.
A lot of this was actually anti-Trump, tariffs are bad overall but are usually supposed to raise the local currency (which is generally bad in context because it hurts exports, so a part of why tariffs don't actually help local businesses.)
People underestimated how much the escape of money from
People underestimated how much the escape of money from
January 27, 2026 at 10:38 PM
A lot of this was actually anti-Trump, tariffs are bad overall but are usually supposed to raise the local currency (which is generally bad in context because it hurts exports, so a part of why tariffs don't actually help local businesses.)
People underestimated how much the escape of money from
People underestimated how much the escape of money from
on the most and how Jevon's paradox holds up (if there is a limited amount of computing to be done spend could decrease instead with more capable models.)
January 27, 2026 at 10:32 PM
on the most and how Jevon's paradox holds up (if there is a limited amount of computing to be done spend could decrease instead with more capable models.)
That's already a very substantial share of revenues, but again already seeing very substantial use so would be dependent on all programmers going from vibe coding to gas town, or a similarly big jump on some other axis. Entirely possible if we get something like AGI I guess, but then also dependent
January 27, 2026 at 10:29 PM
That's already a very substantial share of revenues, but again already seeing very substantial use so would be dependent on all programmers going from vibe coding to gas town, or a similarly big jump on some other axis. Entirely possible if we get something like AGI I guess, but then also dependent
The downside of reaching nearly a billion users might be that there isn't a ton of room left for users with money. Far fewer people are going to pay to get to gastown then will pay for a basic Claude pro or chatgpt account.
January 27, 2026 at 10:18 PM
The downside of reaching nearly a billion users might be that there isn't a ton of room left for users with money. Far fewer people are going to pay to get to gastown then will pay for a basic Claude pro or chatgpt account.
That+X/tesla+crypto+Shiller p/e over 40 would seem to create some risk of contagion.
It's probably a bubble but to short it I would like some Anthropic (unavailable, but in an ideal world) as a hedge is not a bad take. Might be my take.
It's probably a bubble but to short it I would like some Anthropic (unavailable, but in an ideal world) as a hedge is not a bad take. Might be my take.
January 27, 2026 at 10:13 PM
That+X/tesla+crypto+Shiller p/e over 40 would seem to create some risk of contagion.
It's probably a bubble but to short it I would like some Anthropic (unavailable, but in an ideal world) as a hedge is not a bad take. Might be my take.
It's probably a bubble but to short it I would like some Anthropic (unavailable, but in an ideal world) as a hedge is not a bad take. Might be my take.
offsetting force.
January 27, 2026 at 8:55 PM
offsetting force.
chatgpt cheating, carbon emissions, grok revenge and child porn, authoritarianism support from OpenAI, grok and deepseek, increased X risks and model suffering risks.
But not using AI for good things won't prevent those bad things from happening, it will just let them swamp the world without an
But not using AI for good things won't prevent those bad things from happening, it will just let them swamp the world without an
January 27, 2026 at 8:55 PM
chatgpt cheating, carbon emissions, grok revenge and child porn, authoritarianism support from OpenAI, grok and deepseek, increased X risks and model suffering risks.
But not using AI for good things won't prevent those bad things from happening, it will just let them swamp the world without an
But not using AI for good things won't prevent those bad things from happening, it will just let them swamp the world without an
IMO all factory farmed meat is inherently bad.
Some AI usage is good and some is bad. The average right now is hard to say but IMO slightly net negative between the good of Claude Code/tool creation/work and hobby support (including for climate tech startups like mine), and the negatives of
Some AI usage is good and some is bad. The average right now is hard to say but IMO slightly net negative between the good of Claude Code/tool creation/work and hobby support (including for climate tech startups like mine), and the negatives of
January 27, 2026 at 8:52 PM
IMO all factory farmed meat is inherently bad.
Some AI usage is good and some is bad. The average right now is hard to say but IMO slightly net negative between the good of Claude Code/tool creation/work and hobby support (including for climate tech startups like mine), and the negatives of
Some AI usage is good and some is bad. The average right now is hard to say but IMO slightly net negative between the good of Claude Code/tool creation/work and hobby support (including for climate tech startups like mine), and the negatives of
Oh dear God I don't think cutting off a humans eyes will make them more fertile but Musk will definitely try this on himself.
January 27, 2026 at 8:43 PM
Oh dear God I don't think cutting off a humans eyes will make them more fertile but Musk will definitely try this on himself.
avoid X/OpenAI/deepseek products.
January 27, 2026 at 8:36 PM
avoid X/OpenAI/deepseek products.
Yeah this is is good.
But yes also Sora/grok slop is the worst because of an awful mix of the bad taste of the people who use it and the bad ethics/motives of the people in charge of OpenAI and X.
The answer here is not to reject AI but to use it responsibly and also bsky.app/profile/reac...
But yes also Sora/grok slop is the worst because of an awful mix of the bad taste of the people who use it and the bad ethics/motives of the people in charge of OpenAI and X.
The answer here is not to reject AI but to use it responsibly and also bsky.app/profile/reac...
January 27, 2026 at 8:35 PM
Yeah this is is good.
But yes also Sora/grok slop is the worst because of an awful mix of the bad taste of the people who use it and the bad ethics/motives of the people in charge of OpenAI and X.
The answer here is not to reject AI but to use it responsibly and also bsky.app/profile/reac...
But yes also Sora/grok slop is the worst because of an awful mix of the bad taste of the people who use it and the bad ethics/motives of the people in charge of OpenAI and X.
The answer here is not to reject AI but to use it responsibly and also bsky.app/profile/reac...
of importance/doomerism/current sentience.
January 27, 2026 at 8:24 PM
of importance/doomerism/current sentience.
IMO there is a good grounded case for caring about about farmed shrimp welfare given practices such as eyestalk ablation (cutting off shrimp eyes to make them more fertile) and a good grounded case for caring about X-risks/model welfare but both causes get damaged by people making excessive claims
January 27, 2026 at 8:23 PM
IMO there is a good grounded case for caring about about farmed shrimp welfare given practices such as eyestalk ablation (cutting off shrimp eyes to make them more fertile) and a good grounded case for caring about X-risks/model welfare but both causes get damaged by people making excessive claims
I think this could be a good idea under a past/future US government but makes no sense under the current one. Regulatory work cannot be separated from the overall political environment. Nonpartisan projects will not succeed in an environment of attempted authoritarianism.
January 27, 2026 at 8:03 PM
I think this could be a good idea under a past/future US government but makes no sense under the current one. Regulatory work cannot be separated from the overall political environment. Nonpartisan projects will not succeed in an environment of attempted authoritarianism.
Yeah, cishet here but I can understand the PTSD people would have on this. Experiencing awful social isolation is something I've experienced and lord I would not ever want to relive that again.
January 27, 2026 at 7:52 PM
Yeah, cishet here but I can understand the PTSD people would have on this. Experiencing awful social isolation is something I've experienced and lord I would not ever want to relive that again.
Oh wow! Derek exonerated then!
January 27, 2026 at 7:11 PM
Oh wow! Derek exonerated then!
This doesn't mean surrendering it means trying harder. Victory doesn't come from acting only when you have a 100% chance of success, it comes from taking every shot with expected positive value (which both impeachment and EVERY 2026 senate race has.)
January 27, 2026 at 7:01 PM
This doesn't mean surrendering it means trying harder. Victory doesn't come from acting only when you have a 100% chance of success, it comes from taking every shot with expected positive value (which both impeachment and EVERY 2026 senate race has.)
Are you somehow under the impression that Trump's first impeachment increased his approval rating? It didn't have much impact either way, except the initial news release did hurt him.
January 27, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Are you somehow under the impression that Trump's first impeachment increased his approval rating? It didn't have much impact either way, except the initial news release did hurt him.