Paul Madley-Dowd
pmadleydowd.bsky.social
Paul Madley-Dowd
@pmadleydowd.bsky.social
Research Fellow in Medical Statistics and Health Data Science at the University of Bristol
This work was inspired by a blog post by Paul Allison which I highly encourage you all to read: statisticalhorizons.com/missing-at-r...
The Peculiarities of Missing at Random | Statistical Horizons
Paul Allison explores the nuances of data missing at random (MAR).
statisticalhorizons.com
November 26, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Disclaimer: the algorithm is conservative. It can tell you that MI will be valid when the m-backdoor criterion is met (assuming your DAG is correct). But where it tells you that the m-backdoor criterion is not met, this only means the MI may not be valid, not that it won’t be valid
November 26, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Using a simple modification to the algorithm we show how to determine whether MI will be valid in subsamples restricted to participants with observed values for some of the incomplete variables
November 26, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Additionally, we incorporate the work of Little and Zhang who showed that even when MI in the full dataset may not be valid, it may be valid in a subsample restricted to participants with observed values for a subset of analysis variables: doi.org/10.1111/j.14...
Subsample Ignorable Likelihood for Regression Analysis with Missing Data
Summary. Two common approaches to regression with missing covariates are complete-case analysis and ignorable likelihood methods. We review these approache
doi.org
November 26, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Our algorithm provides easy to use guidance on how to implement the m-backdoor criterion in your work
November 26, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Building on the work of Mohan and Pearl, Maya Mathur and colleagues have developed the m-backdoor criterion which indicates using DAGs which paths need to be closed (and whether they can be closed) in order for valid imputation osf.io/preprints/os...
November 26, 2025 at 11:37 AM
The definition of MAR (required for valid imputation) becomes tricky when there is more than one incomplete variable. This has led to suggestions to move away from the MCAR/MAR?MNAR classification system. doi.org/10.1093/ije/...
November 26, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Not an ALSPAC participant but I strongly object to people born the same year as me being described as in "middle age"!
November 21, 2025 at 11:11 AM
I've just begun my journey into grant writing/internal project applications and it is starting to feel more and more like an exercise in click bait production. Why on earth is it more desirable to be vague and punchy than actual explaining what you want to do using field specific standard language
September 3, 2025 at 12:20 PM
...modelling effects from these simulated patients.
September 3, 2025 at 9:48 AM
I can see a (perhaps naïve) similarity to g-computation (I recognise this is just a tool for estimating marginal effects) but even there the analyst is using predictions based on models that used patient data as opposed to using the models to simulate a control patient and then...
September 3, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Just adding "The meta-analyst decides that the accumulated evidence is in fact a pileup." as an additional favourite
May 14, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Congratulations Viktor!!
March 27, 2025 at 3:53 PM
I'm even less convinced by these certificates now

bsky.app/profile/bkle...
So I got this email from BJOG saying a paper we wrote was among the top 10 most cited articles of the year....the paper has 1 citation as of today 😂
March 19, 2025 at 3:32 PM