Just did a Substack live with Adam Kinzinger. We talked US politics, whether he is afraid of Trumpite retribution, air power, the war in Ukraine and the future of warfare. Enjoy.

open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...

The latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee joins me to talk about our recent trip to Ukraine. We cover the situation at the front, latest findings and insights, what’s changed and how we should update our views. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Can anyone give me a good reason as to why Europe shouldn’t seize €300 billion of 🇷🇺 assets? It seems like the right move to me.

There’s a corrupt bargain in the offing. Chunks of E Europe for Taiwan S China Sea and Panama & more

Some will reluctantly accept it because it appears to avoid war. But it actually cements war itself at the heart of our international system. All the suffering & lessons of the 20th C forgotten

“A key finding is that tactical drones are inflicting roughly two-thirds of Russian losses…twice as effective as every other weapon in the Ukr arsenal put together…remarkable…for weapons which did not officially exist in the Ukr mil at start of the war” www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...

There’s a bad conspiracy theory going around that Bob Woodward claims in his book ‘War’ that the AFU allowed 30,000 Russian troops to quietly withdraw from Kherson due to US pressure on Kiyv. It’s false on all counts. 1/

For those interested, the latest with colleagues at CSIS. www.csis.org/events/war-u...

This is a really important article.
The pandemic killed between 7 and 14 million.
The quick response in containing it and developing vaccines proved the strength of democratic institutions.
And yet the fall-out is paranoia, rage and anti-science strongmen.

www.policymagazine.ca/five-years-a...

“Musk’s business empire sits across a minefield of possible conflicts on issues of national security, tech competition, supply chains & free speech, as well as the future of Taiwan. [Musk] has deep connections to top Chinese Communist party leaders” on.ft.com/4ilPbVw

For folks interested in reading on the Russian approach to escalation, deterrence via intimidation versus through limited use of force, concepts of dosed or deterrent damage, etc. warontherocks.com/2022/09/esca...

IMO, Russia is intent on destabilising the west. The sooner western democracies wake up to the challenge the better. Deterrence is being slowly undermined & whittled away by 🇷🇺 aggression. A strong response is needed

This is worth a read 👇excellent

Good overview here of how the Rubles ongoing devaluation is risky, but not all bad for Moscow...(and how the key to effective economic targets is cutting off the foreign currency income derived from energy exports) www.gmfus.org/news/russias...

What price peace?

Why is the defence sector important for Europe? The over 1 million highly skilled jobs certainly has something to do with it, among other important factors. Good to see the new 2024 Facts & Figures report by ASD Europe.

www.asd-europe.org/news-media/f...

Russia uses Zircon missile against Ukraine for the second time - Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise

Experts have found that Ukraine's air defense is capable of shooting down this “invulnerable” missile.

unn.ua/en/news/russ...

Given the recent activities of a certain "research vessel" off the Irish coast, this seems relevant...