Phil Aldrick
@philaldrick.bsky.social
Economics reporter, Bloomberg
There is recent precedent. Last October the OBR added 0.25ppts to its rates forecast to anticipate the inflationary impact of the budget on markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 13, 2025 at 10:41 AM
There is recent precedent. Last October the OBR added 0.25ppts to its rates forecast to anticipate the inflationary impact of the budget on markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BoE gov Bailey lending the government a hand. Brexit will be a drag on growth for the “foreseeable future,” he says. Reeves needs growth, Thomas-Symonds is negotiating better trade with the EU, and Bailey helpfully points out the reward on offer.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:25 PM
BoE gov Bailey lending the government a hand. Brexit will be a drag on growth for the “foreseeable future,” he says. Reeves needs growth, Thomas-Symonds is negotiating better trade with the EU, and Bailey helpfully points out the reward on offer.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The ambition is to increase the headroom from £9.9bn alongside move to one OBR assessment, to restore policy stability and reassure markets 6/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:22 PM
The ambition is to increase the headroom from £9.9bn alongside move to one OBR assessment, to restore policy stability and reassure markets 6/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
She wants to lower inflation via regulated prices, to help bring down borrowing costs which have been the “fastest rising item of gov spending,” she told C4 5/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:21 PM
She wants to lower inflation via regulated prices, to help bring down borrowing costs which have been the “fastest rising item of gov spending,” she told C4 5/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Welfare cuts will be found, which could restore some of the government’s lost credibility with markets since the damaging u-turn. The Times reported that £1bn may be saved from Motability benefits 4/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Welfare cuts will be found, which could restore some of the government’s lost credibility with markets since the damaging u-turn. The Times reported that £1bn may be saved from Motability benefits 4/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
She looks likely to give business a reprieve from more tax rises in a bid to make the budget “pro-growth” 3/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:20 PM
She looks likely to give business a reprieve from more tax rises in a bid to make the budget “pro-growth” 3/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
She seems reluctant personally to do a bank tax but it remains on the table 2/
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www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:19 PM
She seems reluctant personally to do a bank tax but it remains on the table 2/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves gave a series of interviews at the IMF setting out the broad shape of her budget. Key things: tax rises coming, certainly on wealth 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Reeves gave a series of interviews at the IMF setting out the broad shape of her budget. Key things: tax rises coming, certainly on wealth 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
IMF has urged Reeves to stick with two OBR forecasts a year. But only judge her once. It's not plausible. The Act states the OBR has to do two forecasts and assess her both times. Reeves says she wants one proper forecast. That will require legislation
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
October 15, 2025 at 3:30 PM
IMF has urged Reeves to stick with two OBR forecasts a year. But only judge her once. It's not plausible. The Act states the OBR has to do two forecasts and assess her both times. Reeves says she wants one proper forecast. That will require legislation
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
Reeves risks a clash with the OBR as she considers scrapping the spring forecast in a bid for greater policy stability
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 28, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Reeves risks a clash with the OBR as she considers scrapping the spring forecast in a bid for greater policy stability
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Tallies with IFS finding last year that middle earners are paying less income tax and NICs than at any point in the past 50 years
ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk/publications...
September 25, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Tallies with IFS finding last year that middle earners are paying less income tax and NICs than at any point in the past 50 years
ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk/publications...
Striking data point from ONS today. Income inequality at lowest level in 40 years, with the low reached under the Tories.
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
September 25, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Striking data point from ONS today. Income inequality at lowest level in 40 years, with the low reached under the Tories.
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
The Companies House filings are public now and reveal the Foreign Office made Mandelson divesting his 21pc stake (£6m-ish) in GC a requirement of him becoming ambassador. It didn't happen and the FO was putting the pressure on. find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/1053...
September 24, 2025 at 12:23 PM
The Companies House filings are public now and reveal the Foreign Office made Mandelson divesting his 21pc stake (£6m-ish) in GC a requirement of him becoming ambassador. It didn't happen and the FO was putting the pressure on. find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/1053...
Global Counsel has distanced itself from the Epstein link but Mandelson used Global Counsel’s email to contact the paedophile financier in 2013
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 13, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Global Counsel has distanced itself from the Epstein link but Mandelson used Global Counsel’s email to contact the paedophile financier in 2013
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
There also questions about whether the Foreign Office raised concerns about such conflicts during Mandelson’s appointment process
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 13, 2025 at 6:37 PM
There also questions about whether the Foreign Office raised concerns about such conflicts during Mandelson’s appointment process
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Potential conflicts arose because Mandelson was negotiating a tech treaty with the US and Global Counsel, the firm he co-founded, has several tech clients. He also arranged for Starmer to meet Palantir, a client, after seeing Trump in Washington
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Potential conflicts arose because Mandelson was negotiating a tech treaty with the US and Global Counsel, the firm he co-founded, has several tech clients. He also arranged for Starmer to meet Palantir, a client, after seeing Trump in Washington
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Mandelson, the British ambassador to the US, was given days to respond but chose to reveal news of the emails to The Sun instead. Earlier today.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
September 10, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Mandelson, the British ambassador to the US, was given days to respond but chose to reveal news of the emails to The Sun instead. Earlier today.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
The first principle on inflation is "do no harm". BCC says that means no more taxes on business as margins, particularly for low paying industries, are threadbare. Which means costs will be pushed through to consumers www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 10, 2025 at 10:16 AM
The first principle on inflation is "do no harm". BCC says that means no more taxes on business as margins, particularly for low paying industries, are threadbare. Which means costs will be pushed through to consumers www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves has made inflation a priority, telling Cabinet on Tuesday they all need to pull together to keep prices down. But business groups say the 4.1% living wage hike, £5bn cost of employment rights bill, new packaging rules will hurt www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 10, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Reeves has made inflation a priority, telling Cabinet on Tuesday they all need to pull together to keep prices down. But business groups say the 4.1% living wage hike, £5bn cost of employment rights bill, new packaging rules will hurt www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Former OBR economist and BoE Deputy Gov Charlie Bean says it was “bonkers” Reeves left herself so little headroom that she now has to play the ref. 7/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 4, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Former OBR economist and BoE Deputy Gov Charlie Bean says it was “bonkers” Reeves left herself so little headroom that she now has to play the ref. 7/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
That’s why markets are worried. Without growth the fiscal position also weakens. Hence doom loop fears. Reeves is boxed in. 4/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 4, 2025 at 8:44 AM
That’s why markets are worried. Without growth the fiscal position also weakens. Hence doom loop fears. Reeves is boxed in. 4/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
There are echoes of Osborne’s post-financial crisis budgets, just without the austerity hardship 3/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 4, 2025 at 8:43 AM
There are echoes of Osborne’s post-financial crisis budgets, just without the austerity hardship 3/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Put simply, the £20-35bn fiscal consolidation needed for fiscal stability will mean her response to a growth downgrade will weaken the economy further
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 4, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Put simply, the £20-35bn fiscal consolidation needed for fiscal stability will mean her response to a growth downgrade will weaken the economy further
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Thoroughly enjoying Reeves' war on the little critters getting in the way of growth.
In Jan she said we must "stop worrying about the bats and the newts." In April, it was the "absolutely insane" bat tunnel again.
Today, at the Lords, the snails got it in the neck (foot?)
In Jan she said we must "stop worrying about the bats and the newts." In April, it was the "absolutely insane" bat tunnel again.
Today, at the Lords, the snails got it in the neck (foot?)
July 22, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Thoroughly enjoying Reeves' war on the little critters getting in the way of growth.
In Jan she said we must "stop worrying about the bats and the newts." In April, it was the "absolutely insane" bat tunnel again.
Today, at the Lords, the snails got it in the neck (foot?)
In Jan she said we must "stop worrying about the bats and the newts." In April, it was the "absolutely insane" bat tunnel again.
Today, at the Lords, the snails got it in the neck (foot?)
Reeves says that defence spending will not rise above 2.6pc until the next parliament. But Treasury pushes back, saying this is a misreading of her words
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
June 17, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Reeves says that defence spending will not rise above 2.6pc until the next parliament. But Treasury pushes back, saying this is a misreading of her words
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...