Phil Aldrick
@philaldrick.bsky.social
Economics reporter, Bloomberg
Bizarre twist in Reeves’ plan to scrap the OBR headroom assessment in the Spring Statement next month. It won’t technically assess her fiscal rules but it will publish a headroom number, Treasury Perm Sec said yesterday. Which begs the question, what’s the point ..?
February 12, 2026 at 11:05 AM
Bizarre twist in Reeves’ plan to scrap the OBR headroom assessment in the Spring Statement next month. It won’t technically assess her fiscal rules but it will publish a headroom number, Treasury Perm Sec said yesterday. Which begs the question, what’s the point ..?
BOE appears to think it has tamed inflation even after cutting rates twice more this year. The more immediate danger now seems to be a spike unemployment.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 6, 2026 at 11:58 AM
BOE appears to think it has tamed inflation even after cutting rates twice more this year. The more immediate danger now seems to be a spike unemployment.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trawling through BoE transcripts from 2017 released today was this limerick sign-off from Minouche Shafik, now Starmer’s econ adviser, at her last MPC meeting. Inspired by @adamposen.bsky.social who “took to poetry in his final meeting” apparently
January 15, 2026 at 6:46 PM
Trawling through BoE transcripts from 2017 released today was this limerick sign-off from Minouche Shafik, now Starmer’s econ adviser, at her last MPC meeting. Inspired by @adamposen.bsky.social who “took to poetry in his final meeting” apparently
The OECD is drawing up fiscal literacy classes for politicians to ensure they get the risks when calling for tax cuts or spending hikes. Any parliament can join. Several are interested tho not Westminster yet. Scotland will launch a version after its election.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lessons in Markets on the Way for Budget-Challenged Politicians
From London to Pretoria, finance ministers around the world are struggling to pass painful budgets in the face of political opposition. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has a ...
www.bloomberg.com
January 15, 2026 at 12:37 PM
The OECD is drawing up fiscal literacy classes for politicians to ensure they get the risks when calling for tax cuts or spending hikes. Any parliament can join. Several are interested tho not Westminster yet. Scotland will launch a version after its election.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Clive Cowdery tells @bloomberg.com how Resolution Foundation became the UK’s most influential think tank, talks about his remarkable personal journey from care homes to £millions and his “frenemy” Paul Marshall
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Rags-to-Riches Capitalist Behind Britain’s Most Influential Think Tank
Clive Cowdery is arguably the most influential non-politician in UK politics today. His proteges at the Resolution Foundation, a think tank he founded 20 years ago, now staff the halls of Westminster ...
www.bloomberg.com
December 14, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Clive Cowdery tells @bloomberg.com how Resolution Foundation became the UK’s most influential think tank, talks about his remarkable personal journey from care homes to £millions and his “frenemy” Paul Marshall
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Runners and riders to replace Hughes at the OBR. Andy King, Ruth Curtice, Stephen Farrington, Paul Johnson, Sam Beckett, Gemma Tetlow, Rain Newton-Smith www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Here’s Who May Lead the UK Budget Watchdog After Report Blunder
It’s become one of the most sensitive non-political appointments in the UK: Who is going to take over at the Office for Budget Responsibility?
www.bloomberg.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Runners and riders to replace Hughes at the OBR. Andy King, Ruth Curtice, Stephen Farrington, Paul Johnson, Sam Beckett, Gemma Tetlow, Rain Newton-Smith www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
New paper cited by BOE ratesetter Swati Dhingra and co-authored by BOE senior economist Philip Bunn puts the Brexit damage at twice the OBR's 4% estimate. And it's been getting worse since the TCA came into force
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:03 AM
New paper cited by BOE ratesetter Swati Dhingra and co-authored by BOE senior economist Philip Bunn puts the Brexit damage at twice the OBR's 4% estimate. And it's been getting worse since the TCA came into force
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Phil Aldrick
glad to see this piece from summer on Labour's "all pain, no gain" strategy still works www.economist.com/britain/2025...
November 14, 2025 at 11:38 AM
glad to see this piece from summer on Labour's "all pain, no gain" strategy still works www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Phil Aldrick
Excessive levels of Budget kite-flying risk exacerbating market uncertainty
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget
November 14, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Excessive levels of Budget kite-flying risk exacerbating market uncertainty
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget
How the bond markets appear to be reading the latest budget u-turn.
Labour can’t cut spending (welfare u-turn)
Can’t raise major broad based taxes (income tax u-turn)
Reeves and Starmer are hostage to the backbenchers. Like the drunken sailors have taken command of the ship
Labour can’t cut spending (welfare u-turn)
Can’t raise major broad based taxes (income tax u-turn)
Reeves and Starmer are hostage to the backbenchers. Like the drunken sailors have taken command of the ship
November 14, 2025 at 12:28 PM
How the bond markets appear to be reading the latest budget u-turn.
Labour can’t cut spending (welfare u-turn)
Can’t raise major broad based taxes (income tax u-turn)
Reeves and Starmer are hostage to the backbenchers. Like the drunken sailors have taken command of the ship
Labour can’t cut spending (welfare u-turn)
Can’t raise major broad based taxes (income tax u-turn)
Reeves and Starmer are hostage to the backbenchers. Like the drunken sailors have taken command of the ship
eeves has asked the OBR to score her plan to lower inflation by tackling regulated prices. It could knock up to £6bn off borrowing costs - fully offsetting the increase since March, Bloomberg Economics work shows, helping to fill the £30bn hole.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves Looks to Woo Budget Watchdog With Plan to Cut Inflation
Rachel Reeves should get billions of pounds of extra room in her upcoming budget, UK Treasury officials believe, thanks to her plan to cut household bills and bring down inflation.
www.bloomberg.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:40 AM
eeves has asked the OBR to score her plan to lower inflation by tackling regulated prices. It could knock up to £6bn off borrowing costs - fully offsetting the increase since March, Bloomberg Economics work shows, helping to fill the £30bn hole.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BoE gov Bailey lending the government a hand. Brexit will be a drag on growth for the “foreseeable future,” he says. Reeves needs growth, Thomas-Symonds is negotiating better trade with the EU, and Bailey helpfully points out the reward on offer.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:25 PM
BoE gov Bailey lending the government a hand. Brexit will be a drag on growth for the “foreseeable future,” he says. Reeves needs growth, Thomas-Symonds is negotiating better trade with the EU, and Bailey helpfully points out the reward on offer.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves gave a series of interviews at the IMF setting out the broad shape of her budget. Key things: tax rises coming, certainly on wealth 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 19, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Reeves gave a series of interviews at the IMF setting out the broad shape of her budget. Key things: tax rises coming, certainly on wealth 1/
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Phil Aldrick
Wholesale energy costs aren't the *sole* driver of higher energy bills.
For electricity, the largest source of upwards pressure comes from increasing costs of government policies and schemes funded through bills.
Read 'Splitting the bill' to learn more 👉 buff.ly/4x4GNAa
For electricity, the largest source of upwards pressure comes from increasing costs of government policies and schemes funded through bills.
Read 'Splitting the bill' to learn more 👉 buff.ly/4x4GNAa
October 17, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Wholesale energy costs aren't the *sole* driver of higher energy bills.
For electricity, the largest source of upwards pressure comes from increasing costs of government policies and schemes funded through bills.
Read 'Splitting the bill' to learn more 👉 buff.ly/4x4GNAa
For electricity, the largest source of upwards pressure comes from increasing costs of government policies and schemes funded through bills.
Read 'Splitting the bill' to learn more 👉 buff.ly/4x4GNAa
Reposted by Phil Aldrick
The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade.
It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade.
Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade.
Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
October 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade.
It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade.
Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade.
Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
IMF has urged Reeves to stick with two OBR forecasts a year. But only judge her once. It's not plausible. The Act states the OBR has to do two forecasts and assess her both times. Reeves says she wants one proper forecast. That will require legislation
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
October 15, 2025 at 3:30 PM
IMF has urged Reeves to stick with two OBR forecasts a year. But only judge her once. It's not plausible. The Act states the OBR has to do two forecasts and assess her both times. Reeves says she wants one proper forecast. That will require legislation
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
Reeves could end the threat of further tax rises by lifting her £9.9bn buffer this budget, economists say. More margin for error would lower borrowing costs and hand her another boost in what's being called a "virtuous circle." Does mean more tax in Nov tho
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves Faces Mounting Calls to Expand UK’s Fiscal Buffer
Rachel Reeves is coming under pressure to increase the buffer against her fiscal rules at next month’s UK budget, to create what one economist called a “virtuous circle” that quells bond-market uncert...
www.bloomberg.com
October 10, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Reeves could end the threat of further tax rises by lifting her £9.9bn buffer this budget, economists say. More margin for error would lower borrowing costs and hand her another boost in what's being called a "virtuous circle." Does mean more tax in Nov tho
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The OBR is about to downgrade productivity just as the productivity figures start to pick up, from
@tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves May Get Budget Lifeline From New UK Productivity Data
The UK is enjoying its fastest productivity growth since the pandemic, according to new research from Pantheon Macroeconomics that relies on tax data instead of the standard labor-market figures.
www.bloomberg.com
October 10, 2025 at 11:52 AM
The OBR is about to downgrade productivity just as the productivity figures start to pick up, from
@tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves risks a clash with the OBR as she considers scrapping the spring forecast in a bid for greater policy stability
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 28, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Reeves risks a clash with the OBR as she considers scrapping the spring forecast in a bid for greater policy stability
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Striking data point from ONS today. Income inequality at lowest level in 40 years, with the low reached under the Tories.
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
September 25, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Striking data point from ONS today. Income inequality at lowest level in 40 years, with the low reached under the Tories.
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Mandelson has lost voting rights, dividends and had the value of his shareholding capped in the lobbying firm he founded and co-owns.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com
September 24, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Mandelson has lost voting rights, dividends and had the value of his shareholding capped in the lobbying firm he founded and co-owns.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The £1.14bn Covid rescue scheme for start-ups, the Future Fund, has so far cost the taxpayer £400m. Of the 1,191 companies rescued, 334 are bust. Government accounts show
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
UK Taxpayers Lose £400 Million on Covid Startup Rescue Fund
UK taxpayers have lost £400 million ($547 million) on a startup investment rescue fund launched by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the pandemic after hundreds of the companies went bust.
www.bloomberg.com
September 18, 2025 at 7:10 AM
The £1.14bn Covid rescue scheme for start-ups, the Future Fund, has so far cost the taxpayer £400m. Of the 1,191 companies rescued, 334 are bust. Government accounts show
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Thursday’s Bank of England decision on gilt sales could add another £4bn to Reeves’ budget hole. That’s equivalent to 1p on corporation tax
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Bank of England Gilts Decision Risks £4 Billion Hit for Reeves
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will need to find a further £4 billion ($5.4 billion) to put her budget back on track if the Bank of England decides to stop active gilt sales at a critica...
www.bloomberg.com
September 15, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Thursday’s Bank of England decision on gilt sales could add another £4bn to Reeves’ budget hole. That’s equivalent to 1p on corporation tax
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Mandelson’s advisory firm failed to buy him out of his 28pc stake, prolonging the risk of conflicts of interest with the former US ambassador, because it is loss-making and therefore prohibited from buying back shares under the 2006 Companies Act
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Mandelson Firm Let Conflicts Persist as Losses Prevented Buy-Out
Peter Mandelson’s advisory firm Global Counsel allowed the risk of conflicts of interest to persist for months after he was appointed Britain’s ambassador to the US because the loss-making company was...
www.bloomberg.com
September 13, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Mandelson’s advisory firm failed to buy him out of his 28pc stake, prolonging the risk of conflicts of interest with the former US ambassador, because it is loss-making and therefore prohibited from buying back shares under the 2006 Companies Act
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Mandelson was defending Epstein after his conviction as a serial sex abuser in 2008. He even offered to discuss Epstein’s plight with his contacts. @harrynwilson.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com have had exclusive access to emails
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
UK Ambassador Told Epstein ‘I Think the World of You,’ Emails Reveal
Peter Mandelson, the prominent Labour politician who was named British ambassador to the US this year, expressed steadfast support and offered to discuss Epstein’s now-infamous 2008 case with his cont...
www.bloomberg.com
September 10, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Mandelson was defending Epstein after his conviction as a serial sex abuser in 2008. He even offered to discuss Epstein’s plight with his contacts. @harrynwilson.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com have had exclusive access to emails
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
