Paul Gronke
pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke
@pgronke.bsky.social
Professor, director, gardener, and a few other things. I mainly do elections.

Follow my work at HTTP://EVIC.reed.edu
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-gronke-83452311/
I loved the analysis of the impact of free buses -- what they really need to do is make bus lanes!

I'm encouraged that he seemed to understand he has to get along with Albany. A bit disappointed in some of the tone of the speech, but heck, he was excited. Give him that.
November 5, 2025 at 6:41 PM
I dig the excitement he is generating and that he's saying different things. But NYC is incredibly difficult to govern and I hope he ends up figuring out how to navigate that and doesn't end up being constantly frustrated.

We shall see. I don't interpret a lot from a result in NYC.
November 5, 2025 at 6:33 PM
You look only to the parents but not to the differences in their ages which seems to me quite important in this case.

Also: Columbia vs Chicago.

Not sure what to do with San Francisco but who is?
November 5, 2025 at 6:15 PM
This to me is the central challenge. With 40 years of statistical programming under my belt — all the way back to APL and Fortran — I can fashion highly focused queries and evaluate the results.

Not sure what I’d do if I were teaching stats.
October 9, 2025 at 7:28 PM
This has not been my experience, not by a long shot.

I find the LLMs produce workable code for most of my low level needs, dramatically reduce my search time for more complex tasks, and have helped complete tasks that otherwise would be beyond my capabilities.
October 9, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Why would you want to give free college tuition to a rich family? That’s a silly proposal.
October 7, 2025 at 6:22 AM
4/ I may be missing something, but confirmed my sense with @electionstudies.bsky.social .

Nothing statistically incorrect in the book -- that's important to note. I was just surprised to see that fairly elaborate weight adjustment suggested right up front. for use of the ANES.
September 12, 2025 at 7:44 PM
3/ .. in the book and post

"If we want to make inferences about the entire U.S. population, we need to adjust the weights."

I don't think that's correct. You can make inferences about the population percentage who voted, for instance, just not the population NUMBER.
September 12, 2025 at 7:42 PM
2/ Using the weights provided with the ANES without the extra process the post describes does allow inference to the sample population -- as long as by this we mean statistical quantities and not population or subgroup N's.

I was surprised to see the CPS process at the start, and a statement ...2/
September 12, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Not as in depth as you of course, but I have found that the hallucination rate has gone WAY down in the past 12-18 months. I almost never get fake packages / commands any more.
August 26, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Reposted by Paul Gronke
📣 Mark your calendars: The first-ever EPSS Conference will be held in Belfast, 18–20 June 2026

Organized under our new not-for-profit model.

➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/

More details soon, so watch this space.

See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
Belfast 2026 – EPSS
© 2025 – European Political Science CIC
epssnet.org
June 29, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Looks like mine is much older - mid 1970s. "Super Deluxe" brand. Yours is a relative youth!
June 26, 2025 at 5:06 PM