Paul Gronke
@pgronke.bsky.social
Professor, director, gardener, and a few other things. I mainly do elections.
Follow my work at HTTP://EVIC.reed.edu
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-gronke-83452311/
Follow my work at HTTP://EVIC.reed.edu
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-gronke-83452311/
Understand the need to fill space, a reminder that Harris won 68% of the vote in NYC. There were also three deeply flawed contenders.
Not underplaying the amazing Mamdani campaign and his talents, but IMO this is a lot more about campaigning (and shitty opponents) than ideology.
Time will tell.
Not underplaying the amazing Mamdani campaign and his talents, but IMO this is a lot more about campaigning (and shitty opponents) than ideology.
Time will tell.
November 5, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Understand the need to fill space, a reminder that Harris won 68% of the vote in NYC. There were also three deeply flawed contenders.
Not underplaying the amazing Mamdani campaign and his talents, but IMO this is a lot more about campaigning (and shitty opponents) than ideology.
Time will tell.
Not underplaying the amazing Mamdani campaign and his talents, but IMO this is a lot more about campaigning (and shitty opponents) than ideology.
Time will tell.
Reposted by Paul Gronke
"Dress for the job you want, not the job you have"
Here is Gregory Bovino, the man in charge of ICE agents in Chicago.
October 28, 2025 at 5:48 PM
"Dress for the job you want, not the job you have"
Reposted by Paul Gronke
The Oregon Republican Party tried to help Donald Trump make the case for military intervention in Portland with an image of a fiery protest — but since Portland is calm, they had to fabricate one by merging old photos of police in Ecuador and protesters in Brazil www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Republicans post fake image of Oregon protest – using photos of South America
A federal judge had blocked Trump’s request to deploy California national guard to Portland
www.theguardian.com
October 7, 2025 at 2:25 AM
The Oregon Republican Party tried to help Donald Trump make the case for military intervention in Portland with an image of a fiery protest — but since Portland is calm, they had to fabricate one by merging old photos of police in Ecuador and protesters in Brazil www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Reposted by Paul Gronke
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
October 6, 2025 at 11:48 PM
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Reposted by Paul Gronke
I am proud of MIT, where our branch of AAUP has voted unanimously to endorse this statement urging MIT leadership and the MIT Corporation to reject the Compact wholesale
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Letter Regarding Compact
MIT Chapter of the American Association of University Professors October 6, 2025 Statement on the “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” MIT has been invited by the federal governmen...
docs.google.com
October 7, 2025 at 12:01 AM
I am proud of MIT, where our branch of AAUP has voted unanimously to endorse this statement urging MIT leadership and the MIT Corporation to reject the Compact wholesale
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
@ivelasq3.bsky.social The new book on survey weighting in R is amazing but you may want to reconsider the first section on weighting the ANES (summarized at this post www.r-bloggers.com/2025/08/anes...)
I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/
I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/
ANES 2024 is Out! How to Analyze the Data with R | R-bloggers
Last fall, my co-authors Stephanie Zimmer, Rebecca Powell, and I released Exploring Complex Survey Data Analysis Using R. Earlier this August, we had the joy of teaching a workshop based on the book a...
www.r-bloggers.com
September 12, 2025 at 7:36 PM
@ivelasq3.bsky.social The new book on survey weighting in R is amazing but you may want to reconsider the first section on weighting the ANES (summarized at this post www.r-bloggers.com/2025/08/anes...)
I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/
I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/
Reposted by Paul Gronke
A glimpse into Trump's make-believe world of "giant water valves" in Northern California…
August 26, 2025 at 8:17 PM
A glimpse into Trump's make-believe world of "giant water valves" in Northern California…
Reposted by Paul Gronke
JD Vance is suddenly opposed to gerrymandering. Someone tell Greg Abbott.
July 30, 2025 at 4:10 PM
JD Vance is suddenly opposed to gerrymandering. Someone tell Greg Abbott.
Reposted by Paul Gronke
📣 Mark your calendars: The first-ever EPSS Conference will be held in Belfast, 18–20 June 2026
Organized under our new not-for-profit model.
➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
More details soon, so watch this space.
See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
Organized under our new not-for-profit model.
➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
More details soon, so watch this space.
See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
Belfast 2026 – EPSS
© 2025 – European Political Science CIC
epssnet.org
June 29, 2025 at 10:17 AM
📣 Mark your calendars: The first-ever EPSS Conference will be held in Belfast, 18–20 June 2026
Organized under our new not-for-profit model.
➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
More details soon, so watch this space.
See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
Organized under our new not-for-profit model.
➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
More details soon, so watch this space.
See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
Reposted by Paul Gronke
BREAKING: in unsigned order, U.S. Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to open portal to Chaos Realm, invite the One Without Name, He Who Annhilates to devour the Universe, consign all sentient beings to endless suffering; liberals dissent.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to excavate from Antarctic ice an extraterrestrial life-form, colloquially known as “The Thing,” that assimilates, then imitates, other organisms en route to planetary conquest. The liberals dissent.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to remove three members of the Consumer Product Safety Commission despite an ongoing legal battle over his authority to fire them without cause. The liberals dissent.
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
July 23, 2025 at 10:20 PM
BREAKING: in unsigned order, U.S. Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to open portal to Chaos Realm, invite the One Without Name, He Who Annhilates to devour the Universe, consign all sentient beings to endless suffering; liberals dissent.
Reposted by Paul Gronke
The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
July 9, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
Reposted by Paul Gronke
Today's @electionline.bsky.social Weekly features EVIC Director @pgronke.bsky.social's by-line: "Declining Job Satisfaction Among Local Election Administrators: Survey reveals trend in smallest jurisdictions, but identifying cause is a bigger challenge"w/ findings from EVIC LEO Survey Program.
In the newser this week, a look at the declining job satisfaction among local election administrators, esp in small jurisdictions. That, plus so much more election news and info (and an Emmy winner!): electionline.org/electionline...
electionline Weekly - electionline
electionline.org
June 26, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Today's @electionline.bsky.social Weekly features EVIC Director @pgronke.bsky.social's by-line: "Declining Job Satisfaction Among Local Election Administrators: Survey reveals trend in smallest jurisdictions, but identifying cause is a bigger challenge"w/ findings from EVIC LEO Survey Program.
Reposted by Paul Gronke
NYC just used #RankedChoiceVoting in its city primaries.
FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter explains how RCV delivered more choice, more competition, and better campaigns for NYC voters. 👀
FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter explains how RCV delivered more choice, more competition, and better campaigns for NYC voters. 👀
June 25, 2025 at 11:43 PM
NYC just used #RankedChoiceVoting in its city primaries.
FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter explains how RCV delivered more choice, more competition, and better campaigns for NYC voters. 👀
FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter explains how RCV delivered more choice, more competition, and better campaigns for NYC voters. 👀
This decision to reverse an earlier decision that threw out a grants package is ultimately a good news story.
Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error.
Now let's see if the lesson sticks.
www.wweek.com/news/city/20...
Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error.
Now let's see if the lesson sticks.
www.wweek.com/news/city/20...
Amid Outcry, City Council Restores Portland Children’s Levy Grants Package
Close to ten BIPOC executive directors of nonprofit organizations testified to the council, railing them for rejecting the funding recommendations.
www.wweek.com
June 25, 2025 at 11:55 PM
This decision to reverse an earlier decision that threw out a grants package is ultimately a good news story.
Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error.
Now let's see if the lesson sticks.
www.wweek.com/news/city/20...
Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error.
Now let's see if the lesson sticks.
www.wweek.com/news/city/20...
Reposted by Paul Gronke
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years.
NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
June 24, 2025 at 10:20 PM
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years.
NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
Reposted by Paul Gronke
Every time I hear about the dangers of electing inexperienced people to be a NYC mayor, I think about how Vincent Impellitteri, an absolute nobody, became acting mayor, lost the primary and then won running as the “Experience Party” candidate:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent...
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent...
Vincent R. Impellitteri - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
June 24, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Every time I hear about the dangers of electing inexperienced people to be a NYC mayor, I think about how Vincent Impellitteri, an absolute nobody, became acting mayor, lost the primary and then won running as the “Experience Party” candidate:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent...
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent...
POTUS and administration claims about the results of the bombing were nearly a complete fabrication / fantasy/ wishful thinking?
I’m shocked!
I’m shocked!
June 24, 2025 at 11:07 PM
POTUS and administration claims about the results of the bombing were nearly a complete fabrication / fantasy/ wishful thinking?
I’m shocked!
I’m shocked!
Reposted by Paul Gronke
We hope all #ElectionGeeks are enjoying the fabulous agenda of #ESRA2025. Our @electionsvoting.bsky.social Director @pgronke.bsky.social is with you in spirit, and our Research Director @paulonabike.bsky.social is onsite.
Sad to be missing #esra2025 due to a series of flight delays that would get me there a day late.
But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.
#electionscience #aesra #esra2025
But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.
#electionscience #aesra #esra2025
June 11, 2025 at 7:56 AM
We hope all #ElectionGeeks are enjoying the fabulous agenda of #ESRA2025. Our @electionsvoting.bsky.social Director @pgronke.bsky.social is with you in spirit, and our Research Director @paulonabike.bsky.social is onsite.
Life must be difficult as an upright biped with no spine.
June 9, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Life must be difficult as an upright biped with no spine.
Reposted by Paul Gronke
You can see why MARINES are necessary.
This is the spirit of Los Angeles.
This is California.
Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
#FreeDavidEndRaids
This is California.
Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
#FreeDavidEndRaids
June 9, 2025 at 10:22 PM
You can see why MARINES are necessary.
Sad to be missing #esra2025 due to a series of flight delays that would get me there a day late.
But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.
#electionscience #aesra #esra2025
But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.
#electionscience #aesra #esra2025
June 9, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Sad to be missing #esra2025 due to a series of flight delays that would get me there a day late.
But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.
#electionscience #aesra #esra2025
But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.
#electionscience #aesra #esra2025
Reposted by Paul Gronke
Midnight, June 7 is the deadline to comment on the revised Schedule F, Trump's plan to politicize the civil servants by converting them into at-will appointees that can be fired for the mildest pushback against illegal actions.
It's easy - here is how:
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/last-day-t...
It's easy - here is how:
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/last-day-t...
Last day to weigh in on Trump's plan to politicize the civil service
Trump has already shown us how he would use Schedule F powers
donmoynihan.substack.com
June 6, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Midnight, June 7 is the deadline to comment on the revised Schedule F, Trump's plan to politicize the civil servants by converting them into at-will appointees that can be fired for the mildest pushback against illegal actions.
It's easy - here is how:
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/last-day-t...
It's easy - here is how:
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/last-day-t...
Judge Richard L. Leon understands the appropriate use of exclamation points to signal his outrage.
Starting right on page 1.
Fundamental constitutional are no bullshit and can’t be taken away by executive order.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Starting right on page 1.
Fundamental constitutional are no bullshit and can’t be taken away by executive order.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
May 28, 2025 at 2:17 AM
Judge Richard L. Leon understands the appropriate use of exclamation points to signal his outrage.
Starting right on page 1.
Fundamental constitutional are no bullshit and can’t be taken away by executive order.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Starting right on page 1.
Fundamental constitutional are no bullshit and can’t be taken away by executive order.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
We don’t need an officer corps of “careerists”?
Does the POTUS have even a basic understanding of how we maintain our military?
Does the POTUS have even a basic understanding of how we maintain our military?
May 24, 2025 at 7:22 PM
We don’t need an officer corps of “careerists”?
Does the POTUS have even a basic understanding of how we maintain our military?
Does the POTUS have even a basic understanding of how we maintain our military?
Has anyone done a first look at the two party vote totals for President in the 2024 @electionstudies.bsky.social ?
No matter what I do with the weights, or try different samples (web only, in person, pooled), I'm getting Harris percentage at 55%.
Anything I'm missing?
No matter what I do with the weights, or try different samples (web only, in person, pooled), I'm getting Harris percentage at 55%.
Anything I'm missing?
May 22, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Has anyone done a first look at the two party vote totals for President in the 2024 @electionstudies.bsky.social ?
No matter what I do with the weights, or try different samples (web only, in person, pooled), I'm getting Harris percentage at 55%.
Anything I'm missing?
No matter what I do with the weights, or try different samples (web only, in person, pooled), I'm getting Harris percentage at 55%.
Anything I'm missing?