And this probably accurately reflects current thinking by Trump 👇

And round and round and round it goes... When it stops, nobody knows.

From a former US undersecretary of state

And while it's early, it's does not seem to be simply just cheap talk and empty promises. We shall see. I retain extremely cautious optimism here

And it seems internal intelligence assessments indicate we're likely to see more of the same. I think if anything, we might see some demonstrative Oshenik strikes.

🤷‍♂️

cooperation in further negotiations. In fact, we do see some signals that Putin may not be expecting Trump to serve Ukraine on a silver platter.

(2/2)

That said, I do think based on the evidence at the moment, we're probably heading towards this scenario (1/2)

I think what is most significant was Trump's response to the deal.

FWIW, it does seem there is some debate within the administration over continuing aid from U.S. stocks. Perhaps the pause was just procedural rather than reflecting significant debate? Puzzling.

OTOH, this did concern me a bit. It seems there was a temporary pause in military aid for a few days before Trump restored this weekend. I do recall Ukrainian officials stating it in fact had not ceased. Strange. Perhaps they wanted to avoid panic? Perhaps there's some nuance here?

Hearing this arrangement brought me back to something Trump said last year in criticizing Ze. Ironic 😄

It's actually a good sign, because Trump is signaling that he won't punish or blame Ukraine for the failure of negotiations.

The problem with that tactic (wait for Tuberville to leave the floor), is that the entire UC norm is dependent on everyone willing to protect each others prerogative. That's what makes Tuberville's blockade so malicious. Everybody's complicit in it.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...