Peter Kropotkin
@peterkropotkin.bsky.social
Professional dilettante; Interests include religion, philosophy, science/tech/AI, politics, social criticism, art, etc . RT =/= endorsement
This is what he said back then (date: 4/1/2025)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bQ9...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bQ9...
House Speaker responds to Trump's talk of a third term as president
YouTube video by WKYC Channel 3
www.youtube.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:03 PM
This is what he said back then (date: 4/1/2025)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bQ9...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bQ9...
It's actually not new. He made the exact same statement after Trump's first NBC Welker interview in March. This is just a reiteration.
October 28, 2025 at 5:55 PM
It's actually not new. He made the exact same statement after Trump's first NBC Welker interview in March. This is just a reiteration.
Admittedly escalation risk is always a factor in my calculus, but it's more to the margins at this point because Putin is and remains desperate to avoid finding excuses to get NATO directly drawn in.
October 24, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Admittedly escalation risk is always a factor in my calculus, but it's more to the margins at this point because Putin is and remains desperate to avoid finding excuses to get NATO directly drawn in.
And I agree with Hoffman. We're better off investing in accelerating Ukraine's domestic missile program so they can mass produce economically efficient weapon systems rather than use the same money on a few dozen highly expense munitions that aren't likely to do that much.
October 24, 2025 at 3:54 PM
And I agree with Hoffman. We're better off investing in accelerating Ukraine's domestic missile program so they can mass produce economically efficient weapon systems rather than use the same money on a few dozen highly expense munitions that aren't likely to do that much.
As a side, I think we need to avoid getting caught up over specific weapon systems and focus on the abstract on what systems are most practical and effective to Ukraine's defense
bsky.app/profile/frho...
bsky.app/profile/frho...
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.
In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.
Access the post here, short summary below.
1/6
missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.
In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.
Access the post here, short summary below.
1/6
missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
missilematters.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 3:51 PM
As a side, I think we need to avoid getting caught up over specific weapon systems and focus on the abstract on what systems are most practical and effective to Ukraine's defense
bsky.app/profile/frho...
bsky.app/profile/frho...
The threat is consistent with "more-of-the-same". He neither able nor willing to directly escalate against NATO. But (as I stated before 👇), hybrid campaign would get more vicious
bsky.app/profile/pete...
bsky.app/profile/pete...
On escalation risks, I think it's fair to say direct kinetic action by RU against NATO is very low (especially in light of RU comments). They're just not credible for same reasons as with other deliveries. But if TLAMs were delivered, I expect the hybrid campaign to get more intense and worse.
October 24, 2025 at 3:50 PM
The threat is consistent with "more-of-the-same". He neither able nor willing to directly escalate against NATO. But (as I stated before 👇), hybrid campaign would get more vicious
bsky.app/profile/pete...
bsky.app/profile/pete...
And this probably accurately reflects current thinking by Trump 👇
October 24, 2025 at 1:19 AM
And this probably accurately reflects current thinking by Trump 👇
Good enough. But the sanctions carry political force more than impact on RU economy. It indicates Trump is willing to press Putin rather than just arm-twist Ukraine. He is aiming for fair terms.
October 23, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Good enough. But the sanctions carry political force more than impact on RU economy. It indicates Trump is willing to press Putin rather than just arm-twist Ukraine. He is aiming for fair terms.
Which means Ze's patience (and Putin's arrogance and pride) has paid off. Or is paying off more.
October 23, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Which means Ze's patience (and Putin's arrogance and pride) has paid off. Or is paying off more.
I expect more cycles, or wouldn't be surprised, but the trajectory remains net positive.
October 23, 2025 at 11:21 PM
I expect more cycles, or wouldn't be surprised, but the trajectory remains net positive.
I'll admit it. I didn't think he would do it... and they have real teeth too.
October 23, 2025 at 11:20 PM
I'll admit it. I didn't think he would do it... and they have real teeth too.
In many ways... It seems like groundhog day... But the cycle feels... either shortened and replay slightly different.
October 21, 2025 at 11:04 PM
In many ways... It seems like groundhog day... But the cycle feels... either shortened and replay slightly different.
When asked by reporters at the Oval what were the implications of the meeting were, he said he didn't want his time wasted, and referred back to his insistence a ceasefire be on the line of contact.
bsky.app/profile/vata...
bsky.app/profile/vata...
Mr. President, don't waste your time on Putin. He'll lie again about how he wants to end the war. Putin lied to you in Alaska! The Russian army shells civilians every day.
"I don't know if there will be a meeting with Putin. I don't want to waste my time," Trump said.
"I don't know if there will be a meeting with Putin. I don't want to waste my time," Trump said.
October 21, 2025 at 10:58 PM
When asked by reporters at the Oval what were the implications of the meeting were, he said he didn't want his time wasted, and referred back to his insistence a ceasefire be on the line of contact.
bsky.app/profile/vata...
bsky.app/profile/vata...
So apparently what happened is, according to Lavrov, he told Rubio that Russia had not bent from is maximalist demands. And has made it clear it won't budge from them. So the Lavrov-Rubio meet (& Budapest summit) were canned.
(Reference article; recommended read).
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
(Reference article; recommended read).
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Trump’s second meeting with Putin is off
Russia’s foreign minister said he made clear to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a call on Monday that their demands in Ukraine haven’t changed.
www.politico.com
October 21, 2025 at 10:56 PM
So apparently what happened is, according to Lavrov, he told Rubio that Russia had not bent from is maximalist demands. And has made it clear it won't budge from them. So the Lavrov-Rubio meet (& Budapest summit) were canned.
(Reference article; recommended read).
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
(Reference article; recommended read).
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
As long as Putin is in power. He won't go anywhere. Nobody can.
October 21, 2025 at 8:25 PM
As long as Putin is in power. He won't go anywhere. Nobody can.
If he's so eager for the NPP he'd put all of his chips and effort on a settlement in the Israel-Hamas (Gaza) conflict. His opportunities for real success are better.
October 21, 2025 at 8:23 PM
If he's so eager for the NPP he'd put all of his chips and effort on a settlement in the Israel-Hamas (Gaza) conflict. His opportunities for real success are better.
To be clear, I (sadly) think Trump doesn't really care that much about how a deal ends, but I also think he understands there are real constraints in what is politically possible in terms of pressure, coercion, etc.
October 21, 2025 at 8:21 PM
To be clear, I (sadly) think Trump doesn't really care that much about how a deal ends, but I also think he understands there are real constraints in what is politically possible in terms of pressure, coercion, etc.
Jokes aside. I think this is an important political development. The postponement of a Rubio-Lavrov meeting, and delay of a Budapest summit, is suggestive of a president (as impatient as he is) who isn't looking (for whatever reason) to throw Ukraine under the bus.
October 21, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Jokes aside. I think this is an important political development. The postponement of a Rubio-Lavrov meeting, and delay of a Budapest summit, is suggestive of a president (as impatient as he is) who isn't looking (for whatever reason) to throw Ukraine under the bus.
And round and round and round it goes... When it stops, nobody knows.
October 21, 2025 at 7:15 PM
And round and round and round it goes... When it stops, nobody knows.
Orange Face never learns... Or refuses to.
October 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Orange Face never learns... Or refuses to.
Whether it stems from either or a combination of bad faith, delusion, or entitlement, Putin is asking for far more than what he can bargain for and what Trump (or even Ze) can deliver diplomatically.
October 20, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Whether it stems from either or a combination of bad faith, delusion, or entitlement, Putin is asking for far more than what he can bargain for and what Trump (or even Ze) can deliver diplomatically.
In all likelihood, at this pace, about 3 or 4 years plus 100Ks more casualties. I don't think Russia can sustain that.
October 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM
In all likelihood, at this pace, about 3 or 4 years plus 100Ks more casualties. I don't think Russia can sustain that.
Which is why they will never surrender it. Ever.
October 20, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Which is why they will never surrender it. Ever.
You need more than external pressure to get these situations settled.
October 19, 2025 at 5:20 PM
You need more than external pressure to get these situations settled.
I think the officials are referring to pressure in a historic sense. Which is in fact true. Trump has been more willing to press Kyiv for concessions than he has for Moscow. But he also hasn't arm-twisted him on substance... Probably because Ze has shown flexibility and good faith.
October 19, 2025 at 1:53 PM
I think the officials are referring to pressure in a historic sense. Which is in fact true. Trump has been more willing to press Kyiv for concessions than he has for Moscow. But he also hasn't arm-twisted him on substance... Probably because Ze has shown flexibility and good faith.