Bottom line: Governments, businesses and people are making definite strides towards a cleaner future. However, to ensure a resilient transition, Europe needs better coordination, greater investment, stronger social foundations and more political stability.

The various plans to boost the EU's economy add up to a mixed bag that recommits to decarbonisation as Europe’s economic backbone while simultaneously rowing back on key policies steering in that direction.

4️⃣ Europe will have to build strategic autonomy while managing economically critical trade relations. Too stringent protective trade measures could raise costs and slow the clean transition. Clean transition partnerships can help rebuild trust with the Global South and reduce overreliance on China.

3️⃣ The political conditions for further European cooperation are not ideal, but the value case has never been stronger. A joint EU approach that leverages the unique strengths of countries and regions holds significant benefits for Europe's (clean) economy and its position globally.

2️⃣ Deregulation interests see an opportunity in the EU's new focus on reducing administrative burdens. To simplify legislation without reducing substance, policymakers must distinguish legitimate business concerns from environmentally regressive agendas that risk undermining policy effectiveness.

1️⃣ The many investment needs are the enabling thread connecting all Europe’s strategic priorities, from competitiveness to climate to security. Resourcing these needs will require a coherent investment strategy and a break from the status quo in several politically challenging areas.

At E3G, we've identified four defining tests the EU and its climate transition will face in 2025.

You can read or download our orientation briefing here: www.e3g.org/publications...

Key ideas in the thread below 🧵👇

This dynamic risks aggravating mistrust and polarisation, leading to institutional clashes, policy inconsistencies, and ultimately inaction and paralysis. Yet, the EU’s effective response to pressing geopolitical and climate challenges still depends on its ability to build unity and consensus. 🧵9/9

The Commission - and its climate agenda - is still supported by Christian-democrats, liberals, and social-democrats, giving it a strong political foundation. But this coalition's leadership may struggle as right-wing-only majorities in the Parliament, Commission, and Council become more viable. 🧵8/9

The EPP is expected to continue forming ad-hoc majorities with groups to its right, making it the main deal broker. In this context, progressive groups may struggle to shape the EU’s agenda, and climate-ambitious MEPs - including from the EPP - will need to leverage all their bargaining power. 🧵7/9

💥The new political balance in the EU institutions herald a cycle making green policies more contentious. Teresa Ribera's hearing (transition portfolio) was the most tense of all. Tensions peaked when EPP sided with far-right weakened the EU's deforestation law, reversing an existing compromise. 🧵6/9

🔍The parliamentary hearings showed that EU decisionmakers see climate policy through the lens of economic competitiveness, adapitng to climate impacts, social acceptability, and regulatory stability and simplification. New EU climate action will have to respond clearly to those concerns! 🧵5/9

👎Key policy details remain unclear, particularly regarding financing (RRF, MFF, JTF...). They lacked plans for the EU’s social agenda, and failed to recognise the importance of energy and material efficiency. The "simplification" agenda remains a risk to EU’s regulatory stability in practice. 🧵4/9

👍Commissioner candidates pledged to continue Europe’s green and just transition, lowering energy bills and moving away from fossil fuels. Their focus will be on clean industry leadership, expanding renewables, upgrading grids, accelerating electrification, and addressing climate impacts. 🧵3/9

Perhaps the main takeaway is that the process reaffirmed the Commission’s continued commitment to Europe’s decarbonisation, but also revealed a more complex political landscape facing EU climate action. How so? 🧵2/9