Paul Cerro
@paulcerro.bsky.social
CEO @cedargrovech 2x exits // CIO @cedargrovecm multi-strategy investment fund + equity research
This morning, we released part 2 of our quick Q3'25 earnings notes.
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
November 13, 2025 at 2:41 PM
This morning, we released part 2 of our quick Q3'25 earnings notes.
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
Morgan Stanley out this morning that $HIMS October data looking pretty bleak
November 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Morgan Stanley out this morning that $HIMS October data looking pretty bleak
$REAL up 25% right now on killer earnings. We first wrote about this position when it was trading at just $5.13.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
November 11, 2025 at 2:47 PM
$REAL up 25% right now on killer earnings. We first wrote about this position when it was trading at just $5.13.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
$REAL once again killing it!
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
November 10, 2025 at 9:13 PM
$REAL once again killing it!
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
Amazing numbers for $WW this morning - better than expected
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
November 6, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Amazing numbers for $WW this morning - better than expected
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
Incredible numbers from $LQDA 🔥
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
November 3, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Incredible numbers from $LQDA 🔥
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
We sent out our original note on the $WW back in August but not many people understand the upside here.
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
October 21, 2025 at 3:54 PM
We sent out our original note on the $WW back in August but not many people understand the upside here.
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
Everyone's being kept up at night because of $NVDA
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
August 28, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Everyone's being kept up at night because of $NVDA
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy.
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
August 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy.
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
This morning, we shared around a new idea that we think could double that's hiding north of the border
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
August 11, 2025 at 3:13 PM
This morning, we shared around a new idea that we think could double that's hiding north of the border
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
Interesting note on shipping volumes
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
July 21, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Interesting note on shipping volumes
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
Truly cannot wait to share my report on OneSpaWorld $OSW with subs later this summer.
We notified everyone in our sub chat on March 31 that the market was grossly getting this one wrong.
+>24% since but the more important part is around their unique business model.
We notified everyone in our sub chat on March 31 that the market was grossly getting this one wrong.
+>24% since but the more important part is around their unique business model.
July 2, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Truly cannot wait to share my report on OneSpaWorld $OSW with subs later this summer.
We notified everyone in our sub chat on March 31 that the market was grossly getting this one wrong.
+>24% since but the more important part is around their unique business model.
We notified everyone in our sub chat on March 31 that the market was grossly getting this one wrong.
+>24% since but the more important part is around their unique business model.
Is this bullish because it's presumably over now?
June 22, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Is this bullish because it's presumably over now?
Had the pleasure to speak with @TSOH_Investing regarding our views on the Peloton $PTON turnaround, what we liked/disliked, and discussed our views for the company going forward.
We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-p...
We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-p...
June 4, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Had the pleasure to speak with @TSOH_Investing regarding our views on the Peloton $PTON turnaround, what we liked/disliked, and discussed our views for the company going forward.
We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-p...
We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-p...
Just released our newest report on the DICK's Sporting Goods $DKS acquisition of Foot Locker $FL
At a $24 takeout price and a $DKS sell-off, we believe that the current pricing leaves investors with an asymmetric opportunity for this arb trade.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
At a $24 takeout price and a $DKS sell-off, we believe that the current pricing leaves investors with an asymmetric opportunity for this arb trade.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
May 19, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Just released our newest report on the DICK's Sporting Goods $DKS acquisition of Foot Locker $FL
At a $24 takeout price and a $DKS sell-off, we believe that the current pricing leaves investors with an asymmetric opportunity for this arb trade.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
At a $24 takeout price and a $DKS sell-off, we believe that the current pricing leaves investors with an asymmetric opportunity for this arb trade.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
For the record, Soho House $SHCO added in their recent earnings that the takeover offer of $9/share they got back in December has not been assessed yet.
This tracks with our findings that there most likely was never a legitimate offer on the table
-13% since out report below
This tracks with our findings that there most likely was never a legitimate offer on the table
-13% since out report below
May 19, 2025 at 6:51 PM
For the record, Soho House $SHCO added in their recent earnings that the takeover offer of $9/share they got back in December has not been assessed yet.
This tracks with our findings that there most likely was never a legitimate offer on the table
-13% since out report below
This tracks with our findings that there most likely was never a legitimate offer on the table
-13% since out report below
Current economic situation
May 7, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Current economic situation
Retail investors have never bought this much stock (BofA).
And yet institutions continue to either wait on the sidelines or sell into strength.
Retail have been too used to quick recoveries and haven't experienced an extended drawdown.
Perhaps this is the year for a reality check.
And yet institutions continue to either wait on the sidelines or sell into strength.
Retail have been too used to quick recoveries and haven't experienced an extended drawdown.
Perhaps this is the year for a reality check.
May 7, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Retail investors have never bought this much stock (BofA).
And yet institutions continue to either wait on the sidelines or sell into strength.
Retail have been too used to quick recoveries and haven't experienced an extended drawdown.
Perhaps this is the year for a reality check.
And yet institutions continue to either wait on the sidelines or sell into strength.
Retail have been too used to quick recoveries and haven't experienced an extended drawdown.
Perhaps this is the year for a reality check.
From Barron’s weekend piece on asking fund managers where they believe the 10Y will be one year from now
May 4, 2025 at 9:35 PM
From Barron’s weekend piece on asking fund managers where they believe the 10Y will be one year from now
$LQDA up 11% today
Judge denies $UTHR for PI
We should all be good to go for May for those who bought in
Judge denies $UTHR for PI
We should all be good to go for May for those who bought in
May 2, 2025 at 5:50 PM
$LQDA up 11% today
Judge denies $UTHR for PI
We should all be good to go for May for those who bought in
Judge denies $UTHR for PI
We should all be good to go for May for those who bought in
An incredible stat I just learned about video games
Surgeons who played video games at least 3hrs/wk led to 37% fewer errors and finished surgeries 27% faster.
Remember that when your parents tell you that you're wasting time playing videogames
Surgeons who played video games at least 3hrs/wk led to 37% fewer errors and finished surgeries 27% faster.
Remember that when your parents tell you that you're wasting time playing videogames
May 1, 2025 at 5:34 PM
An incredible stat I just learned about video games
Surgeons who played video games at least 3hrs/wk led to 37% fewer errors and finished surgeries 27% faster.
Remember that when your parents tell you that you're wasting time playing videogames
Surgeons who played video games at least 3hrs/wk led to 37% fewer errors and finished surgeries 27% faster.
Remember that when your parents tell you that you're wasting time playing videogames
Has anyone actually read the $LLY lawsuit against Henry Meds?
It's pretty hilarious because Henry Meds is, and for the most part, always was just fraudulently stealing $LLY IP
It's pretty hilarious because Henry Meds is, and for the most part, always was just fraudulently stealing $LLY IP
April 28, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Has anyone actually read the $LLY lawsuit against Henry Meds?
It's pretty hilarious because Henry Meds is, and for the most part, always was just fraudulently stealing $LLY IP
It's pretty hilarious because Henry Meds is, and for the most part, always was just fraudulently stealing $LLY IP
Sent this am, we are long The RealReal $REAL
TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs
We think investors stand to benefit from strong tailwinds and a mispriced market
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realre...
TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs
We think investors stand to benefit from strong tailwinds and a mispriced market
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realre...
April 17, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Sent this am, we are long The RealReal $REAL
TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs
We think investors stand to benefit from strong tailwinds and a mispriced market
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realre...
TRR has been collateral damage in the Trump tariff war despite being luxury-focused and having ZERO direct exposure to tariffs
We think investors stand to benefit from strong tailwinds and a mispriced market
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/the-realre...
Insane
Booking volumes from the last week of March to first week of April across global and U.S. trade lanes plummeted.
Booking volumes from the last week of March to first week of April across global and U.S. trade lanes plummeted.
April 16, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Insane
Booking volumes from the last week of March to first week of April across global and U.S. trade lanes plummeted.
Booking volumes from the last week of March to first week of April across global and U.S. trade lanes plummeted.
In April, another new all-time low in consumers’ expectations for a better financial situation in coming year per @UMich survey
April 15, 2025 at 12:30 PM
In April, another new all-time low in consumers’ expectations for a better financial situation in coming year per @UMich survey