Paul Cerro
@paulcerro.bsky.social
CEO @cedargrovech 2x exits // CIO @cedargrovecm multi-strategy investment fund + equity research
Pinned
Paul Cerro
@paulcerro.bsky.social
· Feb 9
Cedar Grove Capital Management | Paul Cerro | Substack
Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and other Special Situations. Click to read Cedar Grove Capital Management, by Paul Cerro, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
www.cedargrovecm.com
I started my career on Wall Street as an Investment Banker for Merrill Lynch covering consumer, retail, and cannabis.
I share my portfolio, thoughts, and equity ideas via Substack; a multi-strategy fund specializing in L/S, M&A Arb, Special Situations, and event-driven ideas.
www.cedargrovecm.com
I share my portfolio, thoughts, and equity ideas via Substack; a multi-strategy fund specializing in L/S, M&A Arb, Special Situations, and event-driven ideas.
www.cedargrovecm.com
This morning, we released part 2 of our quick Q3'25 earnings notes.
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
November 13, 2025 at 2:41 PM
This morning, we released part 2 of our quick Q3'25 earnings notes.
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
$REAL crossed the 3x line, and we're pleased by the results.
$KITS.TO announced a record-breaking sales week
$SNWV recovering nicely from CMS changes
$LNSR arb is iffy
Find it below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/bunch-of-q...
Morgan Stanley out this morning that $HIMS October data looking pretty bleak
November 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Morgan Stanley out this morning that $HIMS October data looking pretty bleak
Never mind, it hit 3x since we posted sooner than I thought $REAL +38%
To showcase our original work on why there was such a mispricing, I've removed the paywall
Access it with your email and you'll be able to read the whole thing. Onto the next one!
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/the-realre...
To showcase our original work on why there was such a mispricing, I've removed the paywall
Access it with your email and you'll be able to read the whole thing. Onto the next one!
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/the-realre...
November 11, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Never mind, it hit 3x since we posted sooner than I thought $REAL +38%
To showcase our original work on why there was such a mispricing, I've removed the paywall
Access it with your email and you'll be able to read the whole thing. Onto the next one!
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/the-realre...
To showcase our original work on why there was such a mispricing, I've removed the paywall
Access it with your email and you'll be able to read the whole thing. Onto the next one!
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/the-realre...
$REAL up 25% right now on killer earnings. We first wrote about this position when it was trading at just $5.13.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
November 11, 2025 at 2:47 PM
$REAL up 25% right now on killer earnings. We first wrote about this position when it was trading at just $5.13.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
With how well the company is executing, it might end up being a 3x for us by the end of the year.
Once again, appreciate all those who've supported our work.
$REAL once again killing it!
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
November 10, 2025 at 9:13 PM
$REAL once again killing it!
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
Lifts GMV, sales, and EBITDA guide for FY'25. Crazy how people still don't understand the tailwinds here
Inflection in profitability will only expand with continued operating leverage
Congrats to those who played this; +11% rn
$WW is going to be a tough one to hold through what seems to be utter stupidity in the daily price moves, but coming out of that Q3'25 call, the future looks really bright.
November 10, 2025 at 4:09 PM
$WW is going to be a tough one to hold through what seems to be utter stupidity in the daily price moves, but coming out of that Q3'25 call, the future looks really bright.
Amazing numbers for $WW this morning - better than expected
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
November 6, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Amazing numbers for $WW this morning - better than expected
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
- Clinical subs roll off less than feared
- Overall subs better than expected
- Rev beat on estimates
- Adj. EBITDA beat
- Guidance narrowed to top of range for rev + AE
- Cash handsomely at $170M; +$17M Q/Q
$WW +7% in PM
Really weird that $LNSR hasn't announced an earnings date. Given the timing of Q2'25, it should have happened at some point this week. The fact that they haven't announced anything, even for next week, makes me suspicious that something else is going on.
An update from $FTC or $ALC?
An update from $FTC or $ALC?
November 5, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Really weird that $LNSR hasn't announced an earnings date. Given the timing of Q2'25, it should have happened at some point this week. The fact that they haven't announced anything, even for next week, makes me suspicious that something else is going on.
An update from $FTC or $ALC?
An update from $FTC or $ALC?
Was really shocked at the trade down of $LQDA once the market opens but man was it a buying opportunity for people looking to snipe more shares
+23% off the lows
+23% off the lows
Incredible numbers from $LQDA 🔥
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
November 4, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Was really shocked at the trade down of $LQDA once the market opens but man was it a buying opportunity for people looking to snipe more shares
+23% off the lows
+23% off the lows
Incredible numbers from $LQDA 🔥
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
November 3, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Incredible numbers from $LQDA 🔥
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
- blew past sales estimates
- profitable on an adjusted basis
- >2,000 unique patients
One of the many companies we've profiled this year to cross the 100% return mark
Very excited to see where it continues to go from here
Check our work below
We sent out our original note on the $WW back in August but not many people understand the upside here.
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
October 21, 2025 at 3:54 PM
We sent out our original note on the $WW back in August but not many people understand the upside here.
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
This AM, we sent around our most recent thoughts on $HIMS, likening Andrew Dudum to the infamous "Teflon Don," John Gotti.
Nothing bad seems to stick to this stock, but we outlined 3 potential scenarios that might.
Find it all below.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-andre...
Nothing bad seems to stick to this stock, but we outlined 3 potential scenarios that might.
Find it all below.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-andre...
HIMS: Andrew Dudum. The "Teflon Don" of Telehealth
Why time might be ticking for HIMS to continue exploiting its GLP-1 loophole
www.cedargroveresearch.com
October 17, 2025 at 12:47 PM
This AM, we sent around our most recent thoughts on $HIMS, likening Andrew Dudum to the infamous "Teflon Don," John Gotti.
Nothing bad seems to stick to this stock, but we outlined 3 potential scenarios that might.
Find it all below.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-andre...
Nothing bad seems to stick to this stock, but we outlined 3 potential scenarios that might.
Find it all below.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-andre...
Going to write up a further explanation of what I'm talking about for $WW
The "value" is from their terms in their credit agreement.
You can keep all assumptions the same and the equity value is worth >2x what it is now.
That's assuming nothing incremental. That's the play.
The "value" is from their terms in their credit agreement.
You can keep all assumptions the same and the equity value is worth >2x what it is now.
That's assuming nothing incremental. That's the play.
This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy.
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
October 10, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Going to write up a further explanation of what I'm talking about for $WW
The "value" is from their terms in their credit agreement.
You can keep all assumptions the same and the equity value is worth >2x what it is now.
That's assuming nothing incremental. That's the play.
The "value" is from their terms in their credit agreement.
You can keep all assumptions the same and the equity value is worth >2x what it is now.
That's assuming nothing incremental. That's the play.
I truly think we're going to look back on all the OpenAI announcements and wonder why anyone believed they could keep announcing deals with money they don't have or will have over the next few years
It's all pixie dust. Hindsight 20/20
It's all pixie dust. Hindsight 20/20
October 6, 2025 at 1:05 PM
I truly think we're going to look back on all the OpenAI announcements and wonder why anyone believed they could keep announcing deals with money they don't have or will have over the next few years
It's all pixie dust. Hindsight 20/20
It's all pixie dust. Hindsight 20/20
🚨 For students - don't forget that @cedargrovecm offers a student discount at 75% off the annual price.
I know how it feels to want to read research but not be able to afford the full price.
Use the link below to get access. A school email is required!
www.cedargrovecm.com/1be24f84
I know how it feels to want to read research but not be able to afford the full price.
Use the link below to get access. A school email is required!
www.cedargrovecm.com/1be24f84
Subscribe to Cedar Grove Capital Management
Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and other Special Situations. Click to read Cedar Grove Capital Management, by Paul Cerro, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
www.cedargrovecm.com
October 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM
🚨 For students - don't forget that @cedargrovecm offers a student discount at 75% off the annual price.
I know how it feels to want to read research but not be able to afford the full price.
Use the link below to get access. A school email is required!
www.cedargrovecm.com/1be24f84
I know how it feels to want to read research but not be able to afford the full price.
Use the link below to get access. A school email is required!
www.cedargrovecm.com/1be24f84
One thing I had to learn the hard way, which I'm seeing a lot from newcomers, is that a company can have "value" (i.e. hard assets) that make it worth more than what the market is valuing the stock, but that doesn't mean that you can unlock it
Sometimes...it's just paper value.
Sometimes...it's just paper value.
October 2, 2025 at 4:14 PM
One thing I had to learn the hard way, which I'm seeing a lot from newcomers, is that a company can have "value" (i.e. hard assets) that make it worth more than what the market is valuing the stock, but that doesn't mean that you can unlock it
Sometimes...it's just paper value.
Sometimes...it's just paper value.
Everyone's being kept up at night because of $NVDA
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
August 28, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Everyone's being kept up at night because of $NVDA
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy.
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
August 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy.
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
What I'm noticing more and more with stock pitches is that they've been lower and lower quality.
You can tell not much thought or diligence has gone into them. Perhaps it's the market that makes people think making money is easy but that shouldn't make your process any less stringent or in-depth.
You can tell not much thought or diligence has gone into them. Perhaps it's the market that makes people think making money is easy but that shouldn't make your process any less stringent or in-depth.
August 19, 2025 at 10:59 PM
What I'm noticing more and more with stock pitches is that they've been lower and lower quality.
You can tell not much thought or diligence has gone into them. Perhaps it's the market that makes people think making money is easy but that shouldn't make your process any less stringent or in-depth.
You can tell not much thought or diligence has gone into them. Perhaps it's the market that makes people think making money is easy but that shouldn't make your process any less stringent or in-depth.
In keeping up with the streak that we have going on, I've removed the paywall on our $DKS/$FL arb trade we published back in May
$DKS has rallied hard and the trade is up 6.7% right now
Assuming deal close, annualized return at ~12%
Check it out below for free
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
$DKS has rallied hard and the trade is up 6.7% right now
Assuming deal close, annualized return at ~12%
Check it out below for free
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
August 12, 2025 at 4:40 PM
In keeping up with the streak that we have going on, I've removed the paywall on our $DKS/$FL arb trade we published back in May
$DKS has rallied hard and the trade is up 6.7% right now
Assuming deal close, annualized return at ~12%
Check it out below for free
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
$DKS has rallied hard and the trade is up 6.7% right now
Assuming deal close, annualized return at ~12%
Check it out below for free
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
I had reservations for $LQDA coming into earnings today since the run up was so extreme but DAMN those patient starts are amazing
Well above even what I thought it was going to be (550 vs 350)
Call will be important but a great win since we published the idea earlier this year
Well above even what I thought it was going to be (550 vs 350)
Call will be important but a great win since we published the idea earlier this year
Also another idea that people might be interested in.
Our $LQDA pitch is back to where it was trading back in early Jan though nothing has materially changed besides not being able to sell Yutrepia sooner
May launch and all else equal, a path to 2x still there
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/yutrepia-l...
Our $LQDA pitch is back to where it was trading back in early Jan though nothing has materially changed besides not being able to sell Yutrepia sooner
May launch and all else equal, a path to 2x still there
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/yutrepia-l...
Yutrepia's Launch: A Catalyst for Liquidia (LQDA)
Why we think the path to a 2x for LQDA is likely
www.cedargrovecm.com
August 12, 2025 at 11:24 AM
I had reservations for $LQDA coming into earnings today since the run up was so extreme but DAMN those patient starts are amazing
Well above even what I thought it was going to be (550 vs 350)
Call will be important but a great win since we published the idea earlier this year
Well above even what I thought it was going to be (550 vs 350)
Call will be important but a great win since we published the idea earlier this year
This morning, we shared around a new idea that we think could double that's hiding north of the border
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
August 11, 2025 at 3:13 PM
This morning, we shared around a new idea that we think could double that's hiding north of the border
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
We've done so much work on Capri $CPRI around the divestment of Versace and keeping up with how trends are doing at the stores and the math behind it.
Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16%
Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...
Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16%
Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...
A Bunch of Quick Position Updates
Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Cedar Grove Capital Management, LLC (“Cedar Grove Capital” or “the fund”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or...
www.cedargrovecm.com
August 6, 2025 at 1:44 PM
We've done so much work on Capri $CPRI around the divestment of Versace and keeping up with how trends are doing at the stores and the math behind it.
Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16%
Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...
Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16%
Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...
Our recent free article outlines our investment in OneSpaWorld $OSW earlier in the year with just a few hours of research.
Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misun...
Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misun...
When Misunderstandings Create Opportunities
Why we decided to buy OneSpaWorld (OSW) with just a few hours of research
www.cedargrovecm.com
July 28, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Our recent free article outlines our investment in OneSpaWorld $OSW earlier in the year with just a few hours of research.
Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misun...
Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misun...
Interesting note on shipping volumes
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
July 21, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Interesting note on shipping volumes
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.