Paul Cerro
@paulcerro.bsky.social
CEO @cedargrovech 2x exits // CIO @cedargrovecm multi-strategy investment fund + equity research
Pinned
Paul Cerro
@paulcerro.bsky.social
· Dec 22
This AM, we released our "6 Themes for 2026" and why we think they matter. As a refresher, below are our 7 themes we were monitoring for 2025, which included our watchlist of stocks that mostly performed rather well
Take a look below for this year's takes
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/our-6-inve...
Take a look below for this year's takes
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/our-6-inve...
On Wednesday, we released our new podcast episode with Dr. Ashwin to discuss telehealth and #$HIMS
The timing couldn't have been more perfect. We talked
➡️ The issues with their GRAIL test
➡️ The dark side of lab tests and telehealth in general
➡️ The SNAC patent (perfectly timed)
➡️ And much more
The timing couldn't have been more perfect. We talked
➡️ The issues with their GRAIL test
➡️ The dark side of lab tests and telehealth in general
➡️ The SNAC patent (perfectly timed)
➡️ And much more
🎙️ IC #9: Talking Telehealth and HIMS w/ Ashwin Sharma
Our chat on all things telehealth and our views on HIMSwith our medical friend from across the pond
www.cedargroveresearch.com
February 6, 2026 at 5:38 PM
On Wednesday, we released our new podcast episode with Dr. Ashwin to discuss telehealth and #$HIMS
The timing couldn't have been more perfect. We talked
➡️ The issues with their GRAIL test
➡️ The dark side of lab tests and telehealth in general
➡️ The SNAC patent (perfectly timed)
➡️ And much more
The timing couldn't have been more perfect. We talked
➡️ The issues with their GRAIL test
➡️ The dark side of lab tests and telehealth in general
➡️ The SNAC patent (perfectly timed)
➡️ And much more
The disgusting thing about the recent #$HIMS drawdown is that all the pumpers of the name are making jokes in order to cope with how wrong they were/are with no remorse for influencing naive retail traders to go down with the ship alongside them.
Once garbage, always garbage.
Once garbage, always garbage.
February 6, 2026 at 1:03 PM
The disgusting thing about the recent #$HIMS drawdown is that all the pumpers of the name are making jokes in order to cope with how wrong they were/are with no remorse for influencing naive retail traders to go down with the ship alongside them.
Once garbage, always garbage.
Once garbage, always garbage.
This morning, we released our recent note on a special situation trade regarding Abivax #$ABVX and the rumors around a potential buyout.
The company has a stellar, de-risked drug asset, and we think the downside is limited.
See why we're optimistic below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/special-si...
The company has a stellar, de-risked drug asset, and we think the downside is limited.
See why we're optimistic below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/special-si...
February 4, 2026 at 5:54 PM
This morning, we released our recent note on a special situation trade regarding Abivax #$ABVX and the rumors around a potential buyout.
The company has a stellar, de-risked drug asset, and we think the downside is limited.
See why we're optimistic below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/special-si...
The company has a stellar, de-risked drug asset, and we think the downside is limited.
See why we're optimistic below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/special-si...
This morning, I sent out my conversation with Ashwin where we talk about telehealth and #$HIMS specifically
Perfect timing, too, because we go into
➡️ GRAIL cancer screening
➡️ Telehealth's future
➡️ The dark side of telehealth
➡️ #$HIMS treatment offerings
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-9-talki...
Perfect timing, too, because we go into
➡️ GRAIL cancer screening
➡️ Telehealth's future
➡️ The dark side of telehealth
➡️ #$HIMS treatment offerings
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-9-talki...
February 4, 2026 at 4:27 PM
This morning, I sent out my conversation with Ashwin where we talk about telehealth and #$HIMS specifically
Perfect timing, too, because we go into
➡️ GRAIL cancer screening
➡️ Telehealth's future
➡️ The dark side of telehealth
➡️ #$HIMS treatment offerings
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-9-talki...
Perfect timing, too, because we go into
➡️ GRAIL cancer screening
➡️ Telehealth's future
➡️ The dark side of telehealth
➡️ #$HIMS treatment offerings
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-9-talki...
All it takes is ONE idea to work out, and it pays for itself.
An email from a sub the other day, which I greatly appreciate.
#$LQDA we pitched in Jan'25 and it's already ~4x
www.cedargroveresearch.com
An email from a sub the other day, which I greatly appreciate.
#$LQDA we pitched in Jan'25 and it's already ~4x
www.cedargroveresearch.com
February 3, 2026 at 5:40 PM
All it takes is ONE idea to work out, and it pays for itself.
An email from a sub the other day, which I greatly appreciate.
#$LQDA we pitched in Jan'25 and it's already ~4x
www.cedargroveresearch.com
An email from a sub the other day, which I greatly appreciate.
#$LQDA we pitched in Jan'25 and it's already ~4x
www.cedargroveresearch.com
Just like last year, we shared our high-level watchlist for both longs and shorts.
This year had way more shorts because we thought the coming landscape was more of a target-rich environment.
So far, from 12.22.25 to the close of business Friday, they've killed it.
This year had way more shorts because we thought the coming landscape was more of a target-rich environment.
So far, from 12.22.25 to the close of business Friday, they've killed it.
February 1, 2026 at 9:33 PM
Just like last year, we shared our high-level watchlist for both longs and shorts.
This year had way more shorts because we thought the coming landscape was more of a target-rich environment.
So far, from 12.22.25 to the close of business Friday, they've killed it.
This year had way more shorts because we thought the coming landscape was more of a target-rich environment.
So far, from 12.22.25 to the close of business Friday, they've killed it.
Reposted by Paul Cerro
CBO estimates troop deployments to US cities in June-December 2025 cost half a billion dollars.
www.cbo.gov
January 28, 2026 at 7:24 PM
CBO estimates troop deployments to US cities in June-December 2025 cost half a billion dollars.
Finally people are starting to talk about this more!
Good article from @WSJ about the intricacies of the new SNAP program and why it's causing chaos.
As a reminder, we wrote about this over a week ago about companies who have higher exposure to these changes that could face headwinds.
Good article from @WSJ about the intricacies of the new SNAP program and why it's causing chaos.
As a reminder, we wrote about this over a week ago about companies who have higher exposure to these changes that could face headwinds.
January 28, 2026 at 7:59 PM
Finally people are starting to talk about this more!
Good article from @WSJ about the intricacies of the new SNAP program and why it's causing chaos.
As a reminder, we wrote about this over a week ago about companies who have higher exposure to these changes that could face headwinds.
Good article from @WSJ about the intricacies of the new SNAP program and why it's causing chaos.
As a reminder, we wrote about this over a week ago about companies who have higher exposure to these changes that could face headwinds.
Reposted by Paul Cerro
Our Fed Meeting Day feed is live. Follow for real-time reaction & analysis as Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve makes a pivotal rate announcement under the most intense scrutiny ever. Please repost for reach 👍 bsky.app/profile/did:...
January 28, 2026 at 1:49 PM
Our Fed Meeting Day feed is live. Follow for real-time reaction & analysis as Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve makes a pivotal rate announcement under the most intense scrutiny ever. Please repost for reach 👍 bsky.app/profile/did:...
👏🏼 this 👏🏼 is 👏🏼 why 👏🏼 behavioral 👏🏼 changes 👏🏼 are 👏🏼 critical! #$WW
"Studies show that after stopping the drugs, people typically regain lost weight within about 1.5 years. And any improvements in blood sugar, blood pressure or cholesterol are reversed."
"Studies show that after stopping the drugs, people typically regain lost weight within about 1.5 years. And any improvements in blood sugar, blood pressure or cholesterol are reversed."
January 28, 2026 at 1:19 PM
👏🏼 this 👏🏼 is 👏🏼 why 👏🏼 behavioral 👏🏼 changes 👏🏼 are 👏🏼 critical! #$WW
"Studies show that after stopping the drugs, people typically regain lost weight within about 1.5 years. And any improvements in blood sugar, blood pressure or cholesterol are reversed."
"Studies show that after stopping the drugs, people typically regain lost weight within about 1.5 years. And any improvements in blood sugar, blood pressure or cholesterol are reversed."
A little over 4 months ago, we shared a potential take-out trade idea with Lands' End #$LE - that trade is now up ~30%, yielding a 115% IRR
The best part, there's still juice left! WHP is launching a tender offer that could still yield great returns.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/quick-upda...
The best part, there's still juice left! WHP is launching a tender offer that could still yield great returns.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/quick-upda...
January 27, 2026 at 2:07 PM
A little over 4 months ago, we shared a potential take-out trade idea with Lands' End #$LE - that trade is now up ~30%, yielding a 115% IRR
The best part, there's still juice left! WHP is launching a tender offer that could still yield great returns.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/quick-upda...
The best part, there's still juice left! WHP is launching a tender offer that could still yield great returns.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/quick-upda...
Another win for us in the rumored take-private universe
Highlighted back in September that #$LE could be taken private from WHP.
This morning, #$LE announced it was being acquired. The stock is up ~26% right now
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/arb-update...
Highlighted back in September that #$LE could be taken private from WHP.
This morning, #$LE announced it was being acquired. The stock is up ~26% right now
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/arb-update...
January 26, 2026 at 1:44 PM
Another win for us in the rumored take-private universe
Highlighted back in September that #$LE could be taken private from WHP.
This morning, #$LE announced it was being acquired. The stock is up ~26% right now
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/arb-update...
Highlighted back in September that #$LE could be taken private from WHP.
This morning, #$LE announced it was being acquired. The stock is up ~26% right now
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/arb-update...
Wonder what caused this. Will probably never know
January 23, 2026 at 3:54 PM
Wonder what caused this. Will probably never know
FWIW, if #$HIMS decides to launch compounded tirzepatide, that's the dead giveaway that they will never strike a deal with #$LLY or #$NVO to carry their meds through integration again
They're effectively locking themselves out by doing that. Why be bullish if they do that?
They're effectively locking themselves out by doing that. Why be bullish if they do that?
January 20, 2026 at 7:11 PM
This morning, we released a 13-page report on SNAP benefits changes currently taking place and ramping up throughout 2026.
These SNAP changes will affect millions of Americans and restrict certain food/bev categories from being purchased.
1/2
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/big-change...
These SNAP changes will affect millions of Americans and restrict certain food/bev categories from being purchased.
1/2
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/big-change...
Big Changes Coming To SNAP
Why recent amendments to SNAP in 2026 could spell trouble for legacy CPG companies
www.cedargroveresearch.com
January 20, 2026 at 3:08 PM
This morning, we released a 13-page report on SNAP benefits changes currently taking place and ramping up throughout 2026.
These SNAP changes will affect millions of Americans and restrict certain food/bev categories from being purchased.
1/2
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/big-change...
These SNAP changes will affect millions of Americans and restrict certain food/bev categories from being purchased.
1/2
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/big-change...
Coming out with a ~13 page report tomorrow on a topic that barely anyone is talking about
Negative implications from the OBBBA that partially took effect on Jan 1 and will ramp up over 2026
A few companies we discuss could have sizable exposure
Get it via the 🔗 below
www.cedargroveresearch.com
Negative implications from the OBBBA that partially took effect on Jan 1 and will ramp up over 2026
A few companies we discuss could have sizable exposure
Get it via the 🔗 below
www.cedargroveresearch.com
Home | Cedar Grove Capital Management
Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and other Special Situations.
www.cedargroveresearch.com
January 19, 2026 at 1:36 PM
Coming out with a ~13 page report tomorrow on a topic that barely anyone is talking about
Negative implications from the OBBBA that partially took effect on Jan 1 and will ramp up over 2026
A few companies we discuss could have sizable exposure
Get it via the 🔗 below
www.cedargroveresearch.com
Negative implications from the OBBBA that partially took effect on Jan 1 and will ramp up over 2026
A few companies we discuss could have sizable exposure
Get it via the 🔗 below
www.cedargroveresearch.com
Two things
1. God do they know how screwed they are going into midterms
2. We're going to see a hell of a lot more "the boat is sinking, what else can we throw overboard to keep us afloat" over the next few months
1. God do they know how screwed they are going into midterms
2. We're going to see a hell of a lot more "the boat is sinking, what else can we throw overboard to keep us afloat" over the next few months
January 16, 2026 at 9:04 PM
Two things
1. God do they know how screwed they are going into midterms
2. We're going to see a hell of a lot more "the boat is sinking, what else can we throw overboard to keep us afloat" over the next few months
1. God do they know how screwed they are going into midterms
2. We're going to see a hell of a lot more "the boat is sinking, what else can we throw overboard to keep us afloat" over the next few months
Market being really weird
Indicies up but so much over the past week has gotten shot in the face despite the bulk of earnings season having yet to start
Don't know what to make of it
Indicies up but so much over the past week has gotten shot in the face despite the bulk of earnings season having yet to start
Don't know what to make of it
January 16, 2026 at 5:26 PM
Market being really weird
Indicies up but so much over the past week has gotten shot in the face despite the bulk of earnings season having yet to start
Don't know what to make of it
Indicies up but so much over the past week has gotten shot in the face despite the bulk of earnings season having yet to start
Don't know what to make of it
Reposted by Paul Cerro
Yesterday, we sent out a chart of what a $1.5T military looks like. This was on the heels of Trump tweeting last week regarding a demand to increase the defense budget by an additional $550B.
At that rate, the U.S. would be 3.1x China & Russia combined.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/cotw-how-a...
At that rate, the U.S. would be 3.1x China & Russia combined.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/cotw-how-a...
January 12, 2026 at 6:53 PM
Yesterday, we sent out a chart of what a $1.5T military looks like. This was on the heels of Trump tweeting last week regarding a demand to increase the defense budget by an additional $550B.
At that rate, the U.S. would be 3.1x China & Russia combined.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/cotw-how-a...
At that rate, the U.S. would be 3.1x China & Russia combined.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/cotw-how-a...
BofA saying $HIMS expectations too high for 2026
New products unlikely to offset lower core. $HIMS relied too much on GLP-1s to get them to the next leg up and now competition is fiercer than ever w/ still no access to $NVO oral pill
Lower PT from $32 to $29 on higher multiple
New products unlikely to offset lower core. $HIMS relied too much on GLP-1s to get them to the next leg up and now competition is fiercer than ever w/ still no access to $NVO oral pill
Lower PT from $32 to $29 on higher multiple
January 8, 2026 at 2:05 PM
BofA saying $HIMS expectations too high for 2026
New products unlikely to offset lower core. $HIMS relied too much on GLP-1s to get them to the next leg up and now competition is fiercer than ever w/ still no access to $NVO oral pill
Lower PT from $32 to $29 on higher multiple
New products unlikely to offset lower core. $HIMS relied too much on GLP-1s to get them to the next leg up and now competition is fiercer than ever w/ still no access to $NVO oral pill
Lower PT from $32 to $29 on higher multiple
If tariffs are so good, then why are >1,000 businesses suing this administration?
January 7, 2026 at 10:15 PM
If tariffs are so good, then why are >1,000 businesses suing this administration?