And for my IDEV friend and those concerned with energy access and equity:

“Today, around 730 million people still live without electricity, and nearly 2 billion rely on polluting cooking methods. As things stand, the world is not on track to close this huge gap in the provision of modern energy.”

“In the STEPS, coal use peaks earlier than in the CPS and oil demand flattens by the end of the decade, but natural gas demand continues to grow into the 2030s, as a wave of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports brings downward pressure on prices.”

Regarding demand from specific fuels and energy transition:

“In the CPS, oil and natural gas demand continue to grow to mid-century, although coal goes into decline before 2030…”

And for those holding out hopes for the most ambitious decarb scenarios:

“In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario), warming peaks around 2050 at about 1.65 °C and declines slowly after that, largely due to active measures to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.“

Regarding warming pathways:

“The emissions trajectory in the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) is consistent with warming of almost 3 °C by 2100, whereas lower levels of emissions in the Stated Policy Scenario (STEPS) keep this to around 2.5 °C, slightly higher than the 2024 version of the STEPS.“

From a public perception stand point, we seemed to have turned a corner on #adaptation - though not for positive reasons - so I hope COP will deliver for those driven from their homes by climate hazards.

Read the full @unhcr.org report here: www.unhcr.org/media/no-esc...

As well as violence and geopolitical instability.

“Almost half the world’s displaced people are facing conflict and climate impacts in politically fragile states, including Sudan, Syria, Haiti, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lebanon, Myanmar and Yemen.”

And the poor get poorer or in this case, are driven toward worse climate conditions.

“Three-quarters of refugees and other displaced people now live in countries facing high or extreme exposure to climate-related hazards, with repeated displacement becoming increasingly common.

Of course the vulnerable are most susceptible to the shocks and stresses that drive displacement.

“Refugees and displaced people, often living in precarious physical and political conditions, are among the hardest hit by the climate crisis despite contributing little to its causes.”

As with all things #climateaction the limiting factor is funding for critical interventions.

“Fragile and conflict-affected countries hosting refugees receive only a quarter of the climate finance they need.”

Seems to be an example where writing in layman’s terms does more harm than good. And opens the door for palatable but damaging messaging that enables/promotes apathy or distraction. Like if a billionaire with a global platform suggested, “all as well, look over here instead.”

Hypothetically…

Public man-made death - I fear this is a term with which we must become (even more) familiar, as we will likely see it with increasing frequency going forward.

“The Administration, for its part, has denied causing widespread harm, even as it has made the scale of the damage harder to measure—halting data monitoring and dismissing the inspectors general who might have documented it. This is common in cases of public man-made death.”

Meanwhile, on the same day this exposé was published, the architect of USAID’s demise was awarded with a trillion-dollar compensation package.

Sit with that for a moment and reflect on how our collective economic, political, and social systems could allow either outcome.

Why does this read as a storyline that begins with a dubious initial attempt to advance an inadequately studied and immensely risky technology that rapidly morphs into the fanatical motivation of a comic book super villain?

My first job post-undergrad primarily involved advocacy comms for the Clean Air Act among other environmental policies. The best argument focused on the health implications and related economic fallout. That was ~15 years ago. The story is largely the same but public awareness hasn’t moved enough.

Likewise and thanks so much for the great talk, Jeff. Looking forward to your next book!

Hearing you speak at NY Climate Week 2024 was an all time experience.