Owen
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oweninvan.bsky.social
Owen
@oweninvan.bsky.social
1.3K followers 1.8K following 910 posts
The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men gang aft agley, an' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain, for promis'd joy!
Vancouver, BC
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oweninvan.bsky.social
"Could a rise in Indigenous-led developments move the needle on Canada's housing shortage?"
Sort of? Many see "13k homes @ Jericho" & forget that that's over 30 years. Senakw is great, but the Squamish are going to have win a lot more court cases to make a big dent...
Could a rise in Indigenous-led developments move the needle on Canada's housing shortage? New housing developments by First Nations offer affordable homes near cities
November 11, 2025 at 12:53 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
In a rare confluence, BC Policy Solutions & the chamber of commerce people seem to be on the same page that corporate taxes aren't the major issue. I think, from left or right, the budget strikes as unambitious considering the rhetoric leading up to it...

Three missed opportunities in Canada’s federal budget Nov 7, 2025 — by Alex Hemingway in News, Research Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget comes at an important moment for Canada as we face an increasingly hostile United States and the need to chart our own path.
November 10, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Reposted by Owen
ivacheung.com
"Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" in the style of Zohran Mamdani's campaign sign.
November 9, 2025 at 4:30 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
Oof! Here's a big red flag for housing delivery in Vancouver. A 114'-wide assembly in a TOA (Cambie) is listed for about the low end of 2.5x a lone 50' lot. The lowest listing I could find nearby was $2.9M. Basically, apartment land values are unfeasibly low already.
Oakridge development site by court order 715 West 41st Ave & 5693 Heather St, Vancouver $7,800,000 Share Print Contact our office Price $7,800,000 Property type Development site Lot size 13,680 SF (114′ × 120′) Zoning R1-1 Development potential Various land use scenarios PID 010-165-886, 005-090-270 Legal description Lots 4 & 5 of Lot 1 Block 998 District Lot 526 Plan 8313
November 8, 2025 at 12:58 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
@DougSaunders.bsky.social never misses.

I don't know if it fully explains the apparent lack of willingness to act like we have a trade emergency & a housing crisis, but maybe the deficit explains that well enough.
Opinion: Carney’s confusing budget exemplifies the politics of quadrangulation
The Prime Minister is the latest centre-left leader trying to face in many directions at once
www.theglobeandmail.com
November 8, 2025 at 12:58 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
Is there enough chip fab investment planned for all the AI datacenters in the works?
Fab equipment investment expected to more than double from 2019 to 2028, but growth 2024 to 2025 is quite modest. Shifts in global Fab investment: big drop in China.
November 7, 2025 at 6:34 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
Paul Kershaw in the G&M: OAS is a pretty lavish subsidy for high income seniors that is dramatically more generous to higher incomes than the Canada Child Benefit. And it's THE rapidly growing problem for the Federal deficit over the next 4 years.
Canada claws back the Canada Child Benefit at household incomes above $81,000 – but allows OAS to flow freely until a couple makes $182,000. In effect, middle-income parents raising children are asked to tighten their belts while retired couples with six-figure incomes continue to collect $18,000 subsidies. That is not shared sacrifice. It is structural ageism against young people written into fiscal policy. The biggest pressure point is Old Age Security. It has taken more new spending than any other program over the past decade – and will take even more in the years ahead. OAS cost $76-billion in 2023 and is on track to hit $104-billion by 2029. That $28-billion increase looms over every other line in the budget.
November 6, 2025 at 11:23 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
I probably should've been able to guess some of these but I don't think I could have got the order right at all. Before you look, who do you think is the top earning dead musician of 2025? Who just barely makes the top 10?
www.ajournalofmusica...
November 6, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Reposted by Owen
thatalaina.bsky.social
When someone crosses the floor in parliament the gaining party should have to line up on their side of the house, hand in hand, singing

"Red rover red rover, send Chris d'Entremont over"

#cdnpoli
November 5, 2025 at 4:26 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
$20B more (+33%) in mortgage loans for multi-family rental housing. I haven't looked how this compares to other CMHC programs but off the top of my head I think it's similar to the increase in the Apartment Construction Loan Program last budget?
Building More Multi-Unit Homes Multi-unit homes are critical to increasing the housing supply and providing affordable housing to Canadians. To catalyse the creation of these types of homes, the government is supporting the financing of new multi-unit rental housing through mortgage loan insurance and securitisation. Budget 2025 announces that the government will increase the Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) annual issuance limit from $60 billion to $80 billion, starting in 2026 to unlock thousands of new housing units per year. This will increase access to cost-effective mortgage funding for lenders, helping them offer more mortgages and support the construction of new multi-unit housing across Canada. The increase will apply exclusively to multi-unit housing. The government will maintain the current pace of its purchases of CMBs, up to $30 billion annually, to allow the private market full access to the additional issuance.
November 5, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Reposted by Owen
philmarfisi.bsky.social
And to assist with this, funding for Build Canada Homes inexplicably got reduced from previous commitments. Unsure how they expect to both catalyze new building technology and dramatically ramp up affordable housing with what amounts to pocket change.
nealjennings.bsky.social Neal Jennings ☮️ @nealjennings.bsky.social · 6d
Federal budget: "The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimates that to restore affordability to 2019 levels, homebuilding must nearly double from its current pace of around 280,000 homes per year to between 430,000 and 480,000 homes per year over the next decade."

[cries in 2019]
November 4, 2025 at 11:39 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
Has anyone estimated how much poverty rates are about to go up because of cancelling the consumer carbon price? The last rebate went out in April.
Cancelling the Divisive Consumer Carbon Price Canada's new government cancelled the divisive consumer fuel charge—directly allowing Canadians to save money from the price they pay at the pump. The government also removed the requirement for provinces and territories to have a consumer-facing carbon price as of April 1, 2025. These actions have reduced gasoline prices in most provinces and territories by up to 18¢/L in comparison to 2024-2025, lowering headline inflation. The government is also winding down mechanisms to return direct fuel charge proceeds to Canadians, small- and medium-sized businesses, farmers, and Indigenous governments. This measure is estimated to cost about $4.2 billion in 2025-26. This included a final Canada Carbon Rebate payment in April 2025 to residents of provinces where the fuel charge applied.
November 4, 2025 at 9:44 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
To help achieve the 5% NATO defence spending target, the Snowbirds will be writing highlights from the 2025 budget in the sky.
November 4, 2025 at 9:10 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
Great article, but again, i think the "shoebox" era is far from over, 'cuz people want them.

We should build nice narrow-lot apartments anyway though; maybe some singles will choose to have roommates instead of being forced to by zoning!
November 2, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Reposted by Owen
conradspeckert.bsky.social
Reading through the comments is fascinating, but one person claims that a scissor stair design would have been more efficient... That's incorrect, a scissor stair version actually uses more area than two separate switchback stairs for this particular scenario, because...
November 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
"Jays win world series" is unfortunately pretty representative of the "news" Google chooses to share with me.
G Blue Jays win World Series The Blue Jays clinched the World Series title after winning Game 7. 34m ago
November 2, 2025 at 10:09 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
The narrative is more "people don't want shoebox condos" than ever but I think many saying that would consider 500sf a "shoebox" & apparently condos over 540sf aren't selling.
1/3
To answer that cautious demand, Hudson has designed units of around 500 square feet that are priced at around $1,200 a square foot, or $600,000. Mr. Amzaleg said he knows from experience that anything above $650,000 takes a long time to sell. The problem is that some developers aren’t listening to the market, Mr. Amzaleg said.
November 2, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Reposted by Owen
jensvb.bsky.social
This graph is based on CMHC Rms data, combining Edmonton and Calgary to reduce noise. Edmonton and Calgary are good examples for highlighting the relationship between rents and vacancy rates because they don’t have rent control, fairly elastic housing supply, and have gone through several economic boom-bust cycles. The rent change is fixed-sample rent change adjusted for inflation. Fixed sample means that for each cycle it compares rents across the same set of physical units, avoiding it getting skewed by compositional effects like a lot of new units coming online in a particular year. The code for the graph is available for anyone to reproduce or adapt. https://github.com/mountainMath/xkcd_exponential/blob/main/rental_xkcd.md
November 2, 2025 at 1:44 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
The good news is that Metro Vancouver housing permits (total units, all types) are running above starts recently, not crashing. In the City of Vancouver things are, as usual, just muddling along in neutral. The question I suppose is how many permits will ever lead to completions.
housing Permits and starts have been fairly stable in City of Vancouver for years. For the rest of Metro Vancouver, permits have been mostly higher than starts, some times by a lot, or about the same, since early 2022.
November 1, 2025 at 8:12 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
If I were rich, I'd just have two dishwashers and never put the dishes away.
wsj.com The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 11d
The loading-the-dishwasher struggle is real. Even—or especially—for the $20,000 1X Neo humanoid home robot.

🔗: on.wsj.com/47whlZ1
November 1, 2025 at 5:07 PM
oweninvan.bsky.social
I think it's fairly obvious that blanket vacancy control, especially now, would be extremely destructive to rental construction. But I do wonder if vacancy control after, say, 30 years, combined with the current system of applying for above limit increases
www.cbc.ca/news/cana...
November 1, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Reposted by Owen
ebwhamilton.bsky.social
Pro-housing voices from the right of center are increasingly focused on a "we need housing For Families" framing.

In a new column I explain why broad-based liberalization, especially for inexpensive types of housing, is important for helping people start families: www.governing.com/urban/to-sup...
To Support Families, Repair the Housing Ladder
The cost of housing is one big barrier to family formation. But simply building more single family homes isn't the answer.
www.governing.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Reposted by Owen
akurjata.ca
In 100 per cent unsurprising news, the bank that supposedly pulled funding from a Richmond project because of the Cowichan court decision says it definitely did not pull funding because of the Cowichan court decision

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/cou...
Councillor says $100M project denied loan over Cowichan case, bank says not a factor
A Richmond, B.C., councillor says a company based in the city has been refused financing for what she says is a $100 million project because of uncertainty over their site
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca
October 31, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Reposted by Owen
westside-backyard.bsky.social
An entirely normal reaction to current separate policies being consolidated into a single plan coordinating direction for the city that does not actually making any changes to existing circumstances
Article by Brian Palmquist on his City Conversations Substack titled "Vancouver's Plan to die": "Vancouver's proposed Official Development Plan will be the death of all neighbourhoods for all generations"
October 29, 2025 at 3:35 AM
oweninvan.bsky.social
Did anyone else's Google Assistant get an upgrade that makes it not work anymore? My wife tried calling me, & it called some other Owen, not in her phone book, instead, multiple times. Another time, it texted me something random instead of asking her what she would like to say. And more weird things
October 27, 2025 at 1:13 AM