Digital technology played a vital role in the spread of the Arab Spring in 2011. The end of that story saw the collapse of the Assad regime at the hands of HTS. I spoke to @orwaajjoub.bsky.social, one of few people that knows the inner workings of the group.

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podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...

With #HTS now in power in #Damascus, the group’s authoritarian approach raises questions about its ability to unite a war-torn nation. #HTS must address internal divisions, external meddling, and local grievances—or risk an uncertain future in fragile #Syria. 8/8

Approaching 2024, #HTS faced internal rifts and growing civilian discontent in #Idlib. Economic strains, factional disputes, and local grievances all tested the group’s governance framework—raising doubts about its capacity to maintain unity. 7/8
www.mei.edu/publications...

In 2022, confrontations escalated. #HTS clashed with the Syrian National Army (#SNA) and navigated #Turkey’s involvement to expand its territorial hold. Rival factions contended for leverage, reshaping local alliances and elevating #HTS’s profile. 6/8
www.mei.edu/publications...

By 2021, #HTS emerged as an authoritarian regime in northwest Syria—enforcing strict security measures, control, and limited political freedoms. Severing formal ties with #al_Qaeda allowed HTS to centralize power without external links. www.mei.edu/publications... 5/8

Also in 2020, debates raged over local vs. global agendas. #HTS’s focus on local governance contrasted with al-Qaeda’s transnational vision, intensifying splits and foreshadowing a decisive break in jihadist solidarity. www.mei.edu/publications...
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By 2020, ideological clashes intensified. #HTS sought a localized agenda, drifting from al-Qaeda’s global objectives and fueling power contests within jihadist circles. This pivot set the stage for broader confrontations in northern #Syria. 3/8
theconflictarchives.com/middle-east-...

From 2012–2019, Jabhat al-Nusra formally cut ties with #ISIS 2013 and #AlQaeda 2016, paving the way for #HTS. Internal power plays and shifting alliances defined this formative phase, as rival factions jockeyed for influence and political gains. theconflictarchives.com/middle-east-.... 2/8

Thank you Aron!