If anything, it's more like a slog.

I think the AI trade wins, but net/net, we're not in as good a place now as we were in Jan 2025.

5/5

• Lower growth likely means earnings in 2025 will underperform from earlier estimates.

So... great progress from the abyss, but this is not a "go go go all growth all the time" situation.

4/5

• For example, the good is that Goldman raised full year real GDP growth to 1% from 0.5%. The bad news is that 1% is well below full potential growth and is not a growth environment.

3/5

• The temporary deal with China still leaves average 17% tariff, highest in 85 years
• Full impact probably hits in June or July; CPI MoM could rise by roughly 0.2%-0.3%. But... it is one-time.
• This will slow economic growth a bit.

2/5