Ophir Gottlieb
@ophirgottlieb.bsky.social
CEO Capital Market Labs. Contrib Bloomberg, Reuters, Factset, Refinitiv. Stanford Trained Mathematician. Former Option Market Maker, Hedge Fund Manager. AI/ML.
• July jobs 73K vs 110K est
• June revised down from 147K to 14K
• May revised down by 125K down to 19K
• June revised down from 147K to 14K
• May revised down by 125K down to 19K
August 1, 2025 at 7:13 PM
• July jobs 73K vs 110K est
• June revised down from 147K to 14K
• May revised down by 125K down to 19K
• June revised down from 147K to 14K
• May revised down by 125K down to 19K
Economic Data Today
July 3, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Economic Data Today
》ADP Employment Change
• -33K vs 95k est; 95K prior
• First drop since Mar '23
I'll say it like I did on Jun 12, 2025:
I think the labor market is not as strong as ppl think.
• -33K vs 95k est; 95K prior
• First drop since Mar '23
I'll say it like I did on Jun 12, 2025:
I think the labor market is not as strong as ppl think.
July 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM
》ADP Employment Change
• -33K vs 95k est; 95K prior
• First drop since Mar '23
I'll say it like I did on Jun 12, 2025:
I think the labor market is not as strong as ppl think.
• -33K vs 95k est; 95K prior
• First drop since Mar '23
I'll say it like I did on Jun 12, 2025:
I think the labor market is not as strong as ppl think.
PCE Price Inflation YoY:
2.3% vs 2.3% est and 2.2% prior.
PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.1% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation YoY:
2.7% vs 2.6% est and 2.6% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.2% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
2.3% vs 2.3% est and 2.2% prior.
PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.1% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation YoY:
2.7% vs 2.6% est and 2.6% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.2% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
June 27, 2025 at 1:32 PM
PCE Price Inflation YoY:
2.3% vs 2.3% est and 2.2% prior.
PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.1% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation YoY:
2.7% vs 2.6% est and 2.6% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.2% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
2.3% vs 2.3% est and 2.2% prior.
PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.1% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation YoY:
2.7% vs 2.6% est and 2.6% prior.
Core PCE Price Inflation MoM:
0.2% vs 0.1% est and 0.1% prior.
》PCE
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.1% vs 2.2% est
》Core PCE
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.5% vs 2.5% est
US inflation has, for all intents and purposes, hit the Fed's target.
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.1% vs 2.2% est
》Core PCE
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.5% vs 2.5% est
US inflation has, for all intents and purposes, hit the Fed's target.
May 30, 2025 at 1:55 PM
》PCE
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.1% vs 2.2% est
》Core PCE
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.5% vs 2.5% est
US inflation has, for all intents and purposes, hit the Fed's target.
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.1% vs 2.2% est
》Core PCE
• MoM: 0.1% vs 0.1% est
• YoY: 2.5% vs 2.5% est
US inflation has, for all intents and purposes, hit the Fed's target.
🚨US court blocks Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs
via Reuters
Court blocks Trump's tariffs, citing overreach of authority
Constitution grants Congress power to regulate international commerce
via Reuters
Court blocks Trump's tariffs, citing overreach of authority
Constitution grants Congress power to regulate international commerce
May 28, 2025 at 11:30 PM
🚨US court blocks Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs
via Reuters
Court blocks Trump's tariffs, citing overreach of authority
Constitution grants Congress power to regulate international commerce
via Reuters
Court blocks Trump's tariffs, citing overreach of authority
Constitution grants Congress power to regulate international commerce
» CPI
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.3% vs 2.4% est; 2.4% prior.
» Core CPI
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.8% vs 2.8% est; 2.8% prior.
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.3% vs 2.4% est; 2.4% prior.
» Core CPI
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.8% vs 2.8% est; 2.8% prior.
May 13, 2025 at 1:25 PM
» CPI
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.3% vs 2.4% est; 2.4% prior.
» Core CPI
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.8% vs 2.8% est; 2.8% prior.
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.3% vs 2.4% est; 2.4% prior.
» Core CPI
MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
YoY: 2.8% vs 2.8% est; 2.8% prior.
• ADP was very weak (yesterday).
• Today, we get weekly claims.
• Tomorrow, full non farm payrolls.
》Initial Jobless Claims
• 241K vs 224K est
• DOGE claims trivial: 470 ppl
》Continuing Jobless Claims
• 1.916M vs 1.86M est
• Highest since November 2021
• Today, we get weekly claims.
• Tomorrow, full non farm payrolls.
》Initial Jobless Claims
• 241K vs 224K est
• DOGE claims trivial: 470 ppl
》Continuing Jobless Claims
• 1.916M vs 1.86M est
• Highest since November 2021
May 1, 2025 at 1:05 PM
• ADP was very weak (yesterday).
• Today, we get weekly claims.
• Tomorrow, full non farm payrolls.
》Initial Jobless Claims
• 241K vs 224K est
• DOGE claims trivial: 470 ppl
》Continuing Jobless Claims
• 1.916M vs 1.86M est
• Highest since November 2021
• Today, we get weekly claims.
• Tomorrow, full non farm payrolls.
》Initial Jobless Claims
• 241K vs 224K est
• DOGE claims trivial: 470 ppl
》Continuing Jobless Claims
• 1.916M vs 1.86M est
• Highest since November 2021
OK, heads up for Friday morning:
ADP was really weak; the Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this Friday is a big binary event.
If NFP is strong, we could rip higher. If NFP echoes ADP, we could have a new leg down.
ADP:
• 62K vs 115K est and 147K prior.
ADP was really weak; the Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this Friday is a big binary event.
If NFP is strong, we could rip higher. If NFP echoes ADP, we could have a new leg down.
ADP:
• 62K vs 115K est and 147K prior.
April 30, 2025 at 2:25 PM
OK, heads up for Friday morning:
ADP was really weak; the Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this Friday is a big binary event.
If NFP is strong, we could rip higher. If NFP echoes ADP, we could have a new leg down.
ADP:
• 62K vs 115K est and 147K prior.
ADP was really weak; the Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this Friday is a big binary event.
If NFP is strong, we could rip higher. If NFP echoes ADP, we could have a new leg down.
ADP:
• 62K vs 115K est and 147K prior.
Not good.
» US Job Openings (JOLTS)
• 7.192M vs 7.48M est; 7.48M prior.
• Job vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed fell to 1.02
» US Job Openings (JOLTS)
• 7.192M vs 7.48M est; 7.48M prior.
• Job vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed fell to 1.02
April 29, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Not good.
» US Job Openings (JOLTS)
• 7.192M vs 7.48M est; 7.48M prior.
• Job vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed fell to 1.02
» US Job Openings (JOLTS)
• 7.192M vs 7.48M est; 7.48M prior.
• Job vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed fell to 1.02
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
• Texas factory activity rose in March
• Perceptions of business conditions down
• Business activity down; lowest since July
• Company outlook down; 8-month low
• Outlook uncertainty highest since fall 2022
• Texas factory activity rose in March
• Perceptions of business conditions down
• Business activity down; lowest since July
• Company outlook down; 8-month low
• Outlook uncertainty highest since fall 2022
April 28, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
• Texas factory activity rose in March
• Perceptions of business conditions down
• Business activity down; lowest since July
• Company outlook down; 8-month low
• Outlook uncertainty highest since fall 2022
• Texas factory activity rose in March
• Perceptions of business conditions down
• Business activity down; lowest since July
• Company outlook down; 8-month low
• Outlook uncertainty highest since fall 2022
March PCE inflation (out on Wed Apr 30) should read 2.1% (rounded).
Apr PCE (out in late May) should read 2.0% (rounded).
Tariffs are a 🤷♂️but this is the Fed's target measure. It could be time to cut, tbh, politics aside.
Apr PCE (out in late May) should read 2.0% (rounded).
Tariffs are a 🤷♂️but this is the Fed's target measure. It could be time to cut, tbh, politics aside.
April 27, 2025 at 3:27 PM
March PCE inflation (out on Wed Apr 30) should read 2.1% (rounded).
Apr PCE (out in late May) should read 2.0% (rounded).
Tariffs are a 🤷♂️but this is the Fed's target measure. It could be time to cut, tbh, politics aside.
Apr PCE (out in late May) should read 2.0% (rounded).
Tariffs are a 🤷♂️but this is the Fed's target measure. It could be time to cut, tbh, politics aside.
Inflation expectations getting squirrely:
» UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations
• 6.5% vs 6.7% est; and 5% prior.
» UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations
• 4.4% vs 4.4% consensus and 4.1% prior.
» UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations
• 6.5% vs 6.7% est; and 5% prior.
» UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations
• 4.4% vs 4.4% consensus and 4.1% prior.
April 25, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Inflation expectations getting squirrely:
» UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations
• 6.5% vs 6.7% est; and 5% prior.
» UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations
• 4.4% vs 4.4% consensus and 4.1% prior.
» UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations
• 6.5% vs 6.7% est; and 5% prior.
» UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations
• 4.4% vs 4.4% consensus and 4.1% prior.
US dollar hitting multi-year lows is an inflationary impulse.
April 21, 2025 at 1:49 PM
US dollar hitting multi-year lows is an inflationary impulse.
$DXY (US dollar index) is now at a 52 wk low.
• Imported Goods: More expensive (intensifies tariffs)
• Borrowing Costs: Higher yields (consumers & gov't)
• Imported Goods: More expensive (intensifies tariffs)
• Borrowing Costs: Higher yields (consumers & gov't)
April 11, 2025 at 3:10 PM
$DXY (US dollar index) is now at a 52 wk low.
• Imported Goods: More expensive (intensifies tariffs)
• Borrowing Costs: Higher yields (consumers & gov't)
• Imported Goods: More expensive (intensifies tariffs)
• Borrowing Costs: Higher yields (consumers & gov't)
Borrowing costs (10yr yield) are *higher* today than when tariffs were announced.
That is a flight *out of* the US.
This is making the debt burden worse while causing inflation and slowing growth. This is a total fail (so far).
That is a flight *out of* the US.
This is making the debt burden worse while causing inflation and slowing growth. This is a total fail (so far).
April 7, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Borrowing costs (10yr yield) are *higher* today than when tariffs were announced.
That is a flight *out of* the US.
This is making the debt burden worse while causing inflation and slowing growth. This is a total fail (so far).
That is a flight *out of* the US.
This is making the debt burden worse while causing inflation and slowing growth. This is a total fail (so far).
Trump threatens new 50% tariffs on China if Beijing doesn’t remove retaliatory duties
- @cnbc
- @cnbc
April 7, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Trump threatens new 50% tariffs on China if Beijing doesn’t remove retaliatory duties
- @cnbc
- @cnbc
》PPI
• MoM: 0.0% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.2% vs 3.3% est
》Core PPI
• MoM: -0.1% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.4% vs 3.5% est
Some of this data feeds into *PCE* but they were *higher.* Not good.
• MoM: 0.0% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.2% vs 3.3% est
》Core PPI
• MoM: -0.1% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.4% vs 3.5% est
Some of this data feeds into *PCE* but they were *higher.* Not good.
March 13, 2025 at 1:06 PM
》PPI
• MoM: 0.0% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.2% vs 3.3% est
》Core PPI
• MoM: -0.1% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.4% vs 3.5% est
Some of this data feeds into *PCE* but they were *higher.* Not good.
• MoM: 0.0% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.2% vs 3.3% est
》Core PPI
• MoM: -0.1% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.4% vs 3.5% est
Some of this data feeds into *PCE* but they were *higher.* Not good.
If you think 2.8% inflation is good (CPI just now) then I have better news for you...
... PCE inflation is 2.5%, will hit 2.1% in April (Cleveland Fed NowCast) and that's what the Fed watches.
... PCE inflation is 2.5%, will hit 2.1% in April (Cleveland Fed NowCast) and that's what the Fed watches.
March 12, 2025 at 1:37 PM
If you think 2.8% inflation is good (CPI just now) then I have better news for you...
... PCE inflation is 2.5%, will hit 2.1% in April (Cleveland Fed NowCast) and that's what the Fed watches.
... PCE inflation is 2.5%, will hit 2.1% in April (Cleveland Fed NowCast) and that's what the Fed watches.
》CPI
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 2.8% vs 2.9% YoY
》Core CPI
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.1% vs 3.2% YoY
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 2.8% vs 2.9% YoY
》Core CPI
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.1% vs 3.2% YoY
March 12, 2025 at 12:58 PM
》CPI
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 2.8% vs 2.9% YoY
》Core CPI
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.1% vs 3.2% YoY
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 2.8% vs 2.9% YoY
》Core CPI
• MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% est
• YoY: 3.1% vs 3.2% YoY
The flippening... via - BBG
• US business optimism drops: 59% of respondents cite tariffs as a negative impact.
• US executive confidence dropped to 47% from 67% in December.
• US business optimism drops: 59% of respondents cite tariffs as a negative impact.
• US executive confidence dropped to 47% from 67% in December.
March 6, 2025 at 3:44 PM
The flippening... via - BBG
• US business optimism drops: 59% of respondents cite tariffs as a negative impact.
• US executive confidence dropped to 47% from 67% in December.
• US business optimism drops: 59% of respondents cite tariffs as a negative impact.
• US executive confidence dropped to 47% from 67% in December.
$AMZN This is AWS growth rate and this quarter consensus estimate is 19.2% growth.
This will be the big one; up and to the right makes the stock go up and to the right (and vice versa).
For the earnings review and then impact on the future join CML Pro today before the report: bit.ly/CMLPro
This will be the big one; up and to the right makes the stock go up and to the right (and vice versa).
For the earnings review and then impact on the future join CML Pro today before the report: bit.ly/CMLPro
February 6, 2025 at 4:51 PM
$AMZN This is AWS growth rate and this quarter consensus estimate is 19.2% growth.
This will be the big one; up and to the right makes the stock go up and to the right (and vice versa).
For the earnings review and then impact on the future join CML Pro today before the report: bit.ly/CMLPro
This will be the big one; up and to the right makes the stock go up and to the right (and vice versa).
For the earnings review and then impact on the future join CML Pro today before the report: bit.ly/CMLPro
Economic data today
January 31, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Economic data today
I'll say again, oddly well behaved reaction to DeepSeek. The woodshedded companies are appropriate, and the other ripping are also appropriate.
Example in mega land: $AMZN fresh ATH
Example in mega land: $AMZN fresh ATH
January 28, 2025 at 3:15 PM
I'll say again, oddly well behaved reaction to DeepSeek. The woodshedded companies are appropriate, and the other ripping are also appropriate.
Example in mega land: $AMZN fresh ATH
Example in mega land: $AMZN fresh ATH