How pre-season expectations for clubs have varied since 2015:

- Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise
- MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17
- Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022
- Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24

Admittedly not a full programme of matches, but the fact that the team with the 11,000-seater stadium is the shortest-priced favourite this weekend in the Premier League is pretty remarkable.

I missed this last week - Barcelona hadn’t lost a league game that wasn’t a dead rubber in six years. They hadn’t dropped a single point in 12 months. And then they lose, at home, to a team in the relegation zone. Hard to think of many bigger upsets in any league, anywhere.

We're a third of the way through the season, and this is how the predicted points for each team has evolved over the season, according to spread betting on Sporting Index.

Striking parallel with the league table after Liverpool beat City at home in November 2019, en route to winning the league. Back then, the same points as today but from one fewer game, and a point smaller lead over second.