Omar Chaudhuri
@omarchaudhuri.bsky.social
Chief Intelligence Officer at Twenty First Group
Pretty astonishing result in the NWSL today: Kansas City Current knocked out at home in the first round of the playoffs by 8th seed Gotham FC having put in - by far - the most dominant regular season record in the league’s history. US sports fans accept it, European men’s football fans would never…
November 9, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Pretty astonishing result in the NWSL today: Kansas City Current knocked out at home in the first round of the playoffs by 8th seed Gotham FC having put in - by far - the most dominant regular season record in the league’s history. US sports fans accept it, European men’s football fans would never…
On Daniel Levy: www.linkedin.com/posts/omar-c...
I don't buy the idea that Daniel Levy's tenure at Tottenham Hotspur didn't deliver on-field success.
In the 9 full Premier League seasons before becoming Executive Chairman, Tottenham'...
I don't buy the idea that Daniel Levy's tenure at Tottenham Hotspur didn't deliver on-field success.
In the 9 full Premier League seasons before becoming Executive Chairman, Tottenham's average posit...
www.linkedin.com
September 5, 2025 at 3:01 PM
On Daniel Levy: www.linkedin.com/posts/omar-c...
In terms of absolute difference in revenues, has there ever been a bigger upset in football, ever? c. £6m plays c. £600m.
August 27, 2025 at 9:30 PM
In terms of absolute difference in revenues, has there ever been a bigger upset in football, ever? c. £6m plays c. £600m.
How pre-season expectations for clubs have varied since 2015:
- Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise
- MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17
- Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022
- Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24
- Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise
- MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17
- Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022
- Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24
August 13, 2025 at 7:23 PM
How pre-season expectations for clubs have varied since 2015:
- Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise
- MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17
- Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022
- Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24
- Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise
- MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17
- Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022
- Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24
My hot take on the England-India series is that it was a great series but nowhere near as good as the 2023 Ashes for consistent drama and see-sawing. There were some pretty slow days (by admittedly high modern standards) and only one genuinely good pitch in the whole series. But an epic finish.
August 4, 2025 at 1:21 PM
My hot take on the England-India series is that it was a great series but nowhere near as good as the 2023 Ashes for consistent drama and see-sawing. There were some pretty slow days (by admittedly high modern standards) and only one genuinely good pitch in the whole series. But an epic finish.
On tonight’s evidence, the time taken between the whistle and start of run up remains the strongest predictor of a penalty kick’s success.
July 17, 2025 at 9:50 PM
On tonight’s evidence, the time taken between the whistle and start of run up remains the strongest predictor of a penalty kick’s success.
Amazingly weird odds scenarios playing out here because of the skewed draw - England winning but their odds of reaching the final per our model has gone from 47% before Netherlands were ahead, to 26% now, while France have gone from 16% to 33% after falling behind.
July 13, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Amazingly weird odds scenarios playing out here because of the skewed draw - England winning but their odds of reaching the final per our model has gone from 47% before Netherlands were ahead, to 26% now, while France have gone from 16% to 33% after falling behind.
By my maths, Alcaraz was a minimum of 41 points from victory when Sinner was 1 point away. The only other sport that can parallel these scenarios (I think) is test cricket - a last-wicket pair needing over 50 to win. Makes for such great sport
June 8, 2025 at 7:06 PM
By my maths, Alcaraz was a minimum of 41 points from victory when Sinner was 1 point away. The only other sport that can parallel these scenarios (I think) is test cricket - a last-wicket pair needing over 50 to win. Makes for such great sport
Not seen this parallel drawn, but United’s win yesterday reminded me of Liverpool’s against Dortmund in 2016. Europa League quarter final, new manager, centre back with the winner. Liverpool’s perhaps more dramatic thanks to the away goals rule.
April 18, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Not seen this parallel drawn, but United’s win yesterday reminded me of Liverpool’s against Dortmund in 2016. Europa League quarter final, new manager, centre back with the winner. Liverpool’s perhaps more dramatic thanks to the away goals rule.
My first sight of Grand Slam Track this evening. Love MJ and attempts at new things in sport. But first impressions matter, and all a bit amateurish:
1) Empty stadium
2) Sound issues on broadcast
3) Really poor explanation video on format
On the plus side: Steve Cram
1) Empty stadium
2) Sound issues on broadcast
3) Really poor explanation video on format
On the plus side: Steve Cram
April 6, 2025 at 8:04 PM
My first sight of Grand Slam Track this evening. Love MJ and attempts at new things in sport. But first impressions matter, and all a bit amateurish:
1) Empty stadium
2) Sound issues on broadcast
3) Really poor explanation video on format
On the plus side: Steve Cram
1) Empty stadium
2) Sound issues on broadcast
3) Really poor explanation video on format
On the plus side: Steve Cram
Admittedly not a full programme of matches, but the fact that the team with the 11,000-seater stadium is the shortest-priced favourite this weekend in the Premier League is pretty remarkable.
March 15, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Admittedly not a full programme of matches, but the fact that the team with the 11,000-seater stadium is the shortest-priced favourite this weekend in the Premier League is pretty remarkable.
I missed this last week - Barcelona hadn’t lost a league game that wasn’t a dead rubber in six years. They hadn’t dropped a single point in 12 months. And then they lose, at home, to a team in the relegation zone. Hard to think of many bigger upsets in any league, anywhere.
February 10, 2025 at 7:47 PM
I missed this last week - Barcelona hadn’t lost a league game that wasn’t a dead rubber in six years. They hadn’t dropped a single point in 12 months. And then they lose, at home, to a team in the relegation zone. Hard to think of many bigger upsets in any league, anywhere.
Of all the takes on the UCL, I thought this was the most perceptive. It wasn’t as good as I’d hoped it would be, but it was better than before. And I think the likes of the EFL and groups of European leagues should think about how lots of games at once can make for fun TV for (informed) fans
Think what's especially interesting (and this theory is a joint production with @migueldelaney.bsky.social) is that this is a different sort of made-for-TV spectacle. It's not television showing the product. It's that television itself is the product.
February 1, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Of all the takes on the UCL, I thought this was the most perceptive. It wasn’t as good as I’d hoped it would be, but it was better than before. And I think the likes of the EFL and groups of European leagues should think about how lots of games at once can make for fun TV for (informed) fans
Comparing Leicester 15/16 and Forest 24/25:
Pre-season betting market:
LEI - 6th-favourites for relegation, projected 39 points
FOR - 4th-favourites for relegation, projected 38 points
By gameweek 10:
LEI - 5th, 19 points, projected 10th & 52 points
FOR - 3rd, 19 points, projected 11th & 51 points
Pre-season betting market:
LEI - 6th-favourites for relegation, projected 39 points
FOR - 4th-favourites for relegation, projected 38 points
By gameweek 10:
LEI - 5th, 19 points, projected 10th & 52 points
FOR - 3rd, 19 points, projected 11th & 51 points
January 7, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Comparing Leicester 15/16 and Forest 24/25:
Pre-season betting market:
LEI - 6th-favourites for relegation, projected 39 points
FOR - 4th-favourites for relegation, projected 38 points
By gameweek 10:
LEI - 5th, 19 points, projected 10th & 52 points
FOR - 3rd, 19 points, projected 11th & 51 points
Pre-season betting market:
LEI - 6th-favourites for relegation, projected 39 points
FOR - 4th-favourites for relegation, projected 38 points
By gameweek 10:
LEI - 5th, 19 points, projected 10th & 52 points
FOR - 3rd, 19 points, projected 11th & 51 points
Some potentially interesting MD8 narratives emerging. PSV at home to Liverpool, who may be guaranteed 1st - a PSV win would put pressure on City/PSG, maybe Real. And Stuttgart host PSG, who have City next - could be winner takes all. Though currently not looking like much competition for 24th.
December 11, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Some potentially interesting MD8 narratives emerging. PSV at home to Liverpool, who may be guaranteed 1st - a PSV win would put pressure on City/PSG, maybe Real. And Stuttgart host PSG, who have City next - could be winner takes all. Though currently not looking like much competition for 24th.
Potential for a group of:
Fluminense, 16th in Brazil
Salzburg, 7th in Austria
León, 11th in Mexico
Al Ain, 6th in UAE
Or, according to our model, the equivalent of
Southampton
Ipswich Town
Sheffield Wednesday
Exeter City
in terms of current performance levels
Fluminense, 16th in Brazil
Salzburg, 7th in Austria
León, 11th in Mexico
Al Ain, 6th in UAE
Or, according to our model, the equivalent of
Southampton
Ipswich Town
Sheffield Wednesday
Exeter City
in terms of current performance levels
December 3, 2024 at 4:29 PM
Potential for a group of:
Fluminense, 16th in Brazil
Salzburg, 7th in Austria
León, 11th in Mexico
Al Ain, 6th in UAE
Or, according to our model, the equivalent of
Southampton
Ipswich Town
Sheffield Wednesday
Exeter City
in terms of current performance levels
Fluminense, 16th in Brazil
Salzburg, 7th in Austria
León, 11th in Mexico
Al Ain, 6th in UAE
Or, according to our model, the equivalent of
Southampton
Ipswich Town
Sheffield Wednesday
Exeter City
in terms of current performance levels
We're a third of the way through the season, and this is how the predicted points for each team has evolved over the season, according to spread betting on Sporting Index.
December 2, 2024 at 8:34 AM
We're a third of the way through the season, and this is how the predicted points for each team has evolved over the season, according to spread betting on Sporting Index.
Norway, Japan and Brazil’s leagues an advert for competitive balance. Bodo/Glimt are champions on just 2 points per game, the lead switching in the 2nd-last week. J League has 3 teams in the title race on the last day, with leaders Vissel on 1.9 PPG. Botafogo haven’t won since 1995 & may trip up yet
December 1, 2024 at 8:50 PM
Norway, Japan and Brazil’s leagues an advert for competitive balance. Bodo/Glimt are champions on just 2 points per game, the lead switching in the 2nd-last week. J League has 3 teams in the title race on the last day, with leaders Vissel on 1.9 PPG. Botafogo haven’t won since 1995 & may trip up yet
Striking parallel with the league table after Liverpool beat City at home in November 2019, en route to winning the league. Back then, the same points as today but from one fewer game, and a point smaller lead over second.
December 1, 2024 at 5:58 PM
Striking parallel with the league table after Liverpool beat City at home in November 2019, en route to winning the league. Back then, the same points as today but from one fewer game, and a point smaller lead over second.
Putting India's comeback win in Australia into context:
- 8% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in the first innings in test cricket history, and 5% (13/244) since 1900.
- 14% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in Australia in the first innings, and 9% (3/34) since 1900.
- 8% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in the first innings in test cricket history, and 5% (13/244) since 1900.
- 14% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in Australia in the first innings, and 9% (3/34) since 1900.
November 25, 2024 at 9:32 AM
Putting India's comeback win in Australia into context:
- 8% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in the first innings in test cricket history, and 5% (13/244) since 1900.
- 14% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in Australia in the first innings, and 9% (3/34) since 1900.
- 8% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in the first innings in test cricket history, and 5% (13/244) since 1900.
- 14% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in Australia in the first innings, and 9% (3/34) since 1900.
Women’s North London, Rhône-Alpes and El Clásico derbies all scheduled during the men’s international break to maximise interest, but all effectively over as contests before a quarter of the game was played. No hype/marketing/promotion of rivalries survives competitive imbalance over the long term.
November 16, 2024 at 9:12 PM
Women’s North London, Rhône-Alpes and El Clásico derbies all scheduled during the men’s international break to maximise interest, but all effectively over as contests before a quarter of the game was played. No hype/marketing/promotion of rivalries survives competitive imbalance over the long term.
Thanks to @sportingintel.bsky.social for allowing me to do a guest post on his Substack, covering the remarkable performance of Rúben Amorim and Sporting CP. A few observations... (1/5) sportingintelligence832.substack.com/p/ruben-amor...
Ruben Amorin starts work at Man Utd as football's most overachieving coach
The Portuguese manager was recently identified as the best in the world when considering the resources he had at Sporting Lisbon and the results he delivered.
sportingintelligence832.substack.com
November 15, 2024 at 12:38 PM
Thanks to @sportingintel.bsky.social for allowing me to do a guest post on his Substack, covering the remarkable performance of Rúben Amorim and Sporting CP. A few observations... (1/5) sportingintelligence832.substack.com/p/ruben-amor...