Nuño Sempere
@nunosempere.com
Measure is unceasing, disagreement is a ladder.
nunosempere.com
nunosempere.com
Forecaster estimates of a 3rd Trump term—Trump is a funny guy
October 27, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Forecaster estimates of a 3rd Trump term—Trump is a funny guy
I am extremely grateful to my American overlords for financing my intense interest in anticipating large-scale risks.
October 13, 2025 at 6:42 PM
I am extremely grateful to my American overlords for financing my intense interest in anticipating large-scale risks.
Our headline item is our changing probability estimate for a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire by October 1st before and after the summit
August 18, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Our headline item is our changing probability estimate for a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire by October 1st before and after the summit
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025
August 18, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025
June 13, 2025 at 2:08 AM
I'm commoditizing elite forecasting at askaforecaster.com. Ask about career changes, strategic decisions, Taiwan invasions!
May 22, 2025 at 3:33 PM
I'm commoditizing elite forecasting at askaforecaster.com. Ask about career changes, strategic decisions, Taiwan invasions!
Same location as of 2023-05 for reference
May 15, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Same location as of 2023-05 for reference
Satellite image of the Stargate project. It's huge. See a football field at the top right for reference.
May 15, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Satellite image of the Stargate project. It's huge. See a football field at the top right for reference.
ALLFED running a funding appeal to not fire half of their staff. I think they are doing good work, and they seem good for increasing resiliency during black swans (e.g., during a big solar flare)
April 16, 2025 at 11:46 PM
ALLFED running a funding appeal to not fire half of their staff. I think they are doing good work, and they seem good for increasing resiliency during black swans (e.g., during a big solar flare)
I asked my friend group for their relationship timelines. This allows me to construct a baserate for the reference class of {male, very but not world-shatteringly smart, generally altruistic, perhaps EA-adjacent, in their 20s or 30s, gainfully employed or studying}
April 16, 2025 at 1:06 PM
I asked my friend group for their relationship timelines. This allows me to construct a baserate for the reference class of {male, very but not world-shatteringly smart, generally altruistic, perhaps EA-adjacent, in their 20s or 30s, gainfully employed or studying}
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2025: Tariff yoyo, OpenAI slashing safety testing, Iran nuclear programme negotiations, 1K H5N1 confirmed herd infections. <https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025>
April 14, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2025: Tariff yoyo, OpenAI slashing safety testing, Iran nuclear programme negotiations, 1K H5N1 confirmed herd infections. <https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025>
XD, I like English translations of Chinese phrases.
April 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
XD, I like English translations of Chinese phrases.
Insane "closing in" (on Taiwan) poster released by PLA
April 1, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Insane "closing in" (on Taiwan) poster released by PLA
I kinda empathize with Ethiopia wanting to invade part of Eritrea to get sea access here.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/...
March 31, 2025 at 4:17 PM
I kinda empathize with Ethiopia wanting to invade part of Eritrea to get sea access here.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/...
Pretty insane China/Poland trade route through Iran to avoid Russia btw
March 11, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Pretty insane China/Poland trade route through Iran to avoid Russia btw
Twitter seems t be down! Here is a calculator for distributions I wrote the other day: github.com/NunoSempere/...
March 10, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Twitter seems t be down! Here is a calculator for distributions I wrote the other day: github.com/NunoSempere/...
In this age of loneliness and increases in political polarization, the solution is clear: date lefty cuties.
November 20, 2024 at 4:54 PM
In this age of loneliness and increases in political polarization, the solution is clear: date lefty cuties.
Here is a link to a browser that I am maintaining.
https://github.com/NunoSempere/rosenrot-browser
https://github.com/NunoSempere/rosenrot-browser
November 20, 2024 at 4:53 PM
Here is a link to a browser that I am maintaining.
https://github.com/NunoSempere/rosenrot-browser
https://github.com/NunoSempere/rosenrot-browser