Nuño Sempere
@nunosempere.com
Measure is unceasing, disagreement is a ladder.
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Nuño Sempere
@nunosempere.com
· Apr 10
Ask me anything in this thread and I'll answer it until further notice (noticing that bsky engagement rate is pretty low and trying to increase it)
As the UK stopped being a global superpower James Bond just became a quaint relic and got replaced with Mission Impossible. Curious to see what comes next.
November 24, 2025 at 8:46 PM
As the UK stopped being a global superpower James Bond just became a quaint relic and got replaced with Mission Impossible. Curious to see what comes next.
Some people really really want particular threat models in AI to be right, so they kind of bend evidence to fit their notions. Seems dangerous, unwise.
November 17, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Some people really really want particular threat models in AI to be right, so they kind of bend evidence to fit their notions. Seems dangerous, unwise.
Oral arguments on Trump tariffs at SCOTUS are actually pretty engaging to read: <https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf>
https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf
https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf
www.supremecourt.gov
November 10, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Oral arguments on Trump tariffs at SCOTUS are actually pretty engaging to read: <https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2025/24-1287_097c.pdf>
Forecaster estimates of a 3rd Trump term—Trump is a funny guy
October 27, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Forecaster estimates of a 3rd Trump term—Trump is a funny guy
If Sentinel wasn't called Sentinel, it might have been called Speculative Catastrophes Horizon Watch and Emergency Reserve Team (SCHWERT). But they wouldn't let me.
October 21, 2025 at 11:31 PM
If Sentinel wasn't called Sentinel, it might have been called Speculative Catastrophes Horizon Watch and Emergency Reserve Team (SCHWERT). But they wouldn't let me.
I am extremely grateful to my American overlords for financing my intense interest in anticipating large-scale risks.
October 13, 2025 at 6:42 PM
I am extremely grateful to my American overlords for financing my intense interest in anticipating large-scale risks.
So MacKenzie Scott (exwife of Bezos) spent 20B on climate & racial justice. At 100K USD per person per year, over 5 years, that's an army of 40K people working day in, day out
October 7, 2025 at 5:59 PM
So MacKenzie Scott (exwife of Bezos) spent 20B on climate & racial justice. At 100K USD per person per year, over 5 years, that's an army of 40K people working day in, day out
Sad that The Base Rate Times died
September 23, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Sad that The Base Rate Times died
Tried roastmypost.org yesterday for the weekly Sentinel brief. It caught a few typos and small stuff, but I can see how the general idea is useful
September 23, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Tried roastmypost.org yesterday for the weekly Sentinel brief. It caught a few typos and small stuff, but I can see how the general idea is useful
Humans just recombine too slowly, i.e., given two humans that are interesting on a given metric, it just takes too long to produce a descendant human that shares traits of both. Given this, very unclear how humans don't become obsolete eventually over the epochs.
September 23, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Humans just recombine too slowly, i.e., given two humans that are interesting on a given metric, it just takes too long to produce a descendant human that shares traits of both. Given this, very unclear how humans don't become obsolete eventually over the epochs.
Mhh, the algorithm seems to like strong emotions, gratitude, fear, frustration
September 19, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Mhh, the algorithm seems to like strong emotions, gratitude, fear, frustration
Talking about loss of control with someone yesterday: Paraguay does not rule the world, and yet it does fine
September 18, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Talking about loss of control with someone yesterday: Paraguay does not rule the world, and yet it does fine
Talking about loss of control with someone yesterday: Paraguay does not rule the world, and yet it does pretty fine
September 18, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Talking about loss of control with someone yesterday: Paraguay does not rule the world, and yet it does pretty fine
We'll be dropping a podcast with Ivan Vendrov on recommender systems later today
September 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM
We'll be dropping a podcast with Ivan Vendrov on recommender systems later today
Profile of a Nigerian prediction market CTO https://techcabal.com/2025/08/30/oluwaleke-fakorede-gowagr/
A bike accident was the breaking point for Oluwaleke Fakorede
When a crash nearly ended his life, Oluwaleke Fakorede chose to rebuild it abroad, driving GoWagr from Nigeria’s chaos to global ambition.
techcabal.com
September 9, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Profile of a Nigerian prediction market CTO https://techcabal.com/2025/08/30/oluwaleke-fakorede-gowagr/
Interacting with google APIs continues to be frustrating, but I now have something that halfway transforms a google document, and its comments, into markdown, so that one can feed it into llms
September 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Interacting with google APIs continues to be frustrating, but I now have something that halfway transforms a google document, and its comments, into markdown, so that one can feed it into llms
Seems like one of the benefits of having a \\"current thing" is that people's peacocking is more directly comparable?
September 7, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Seems like one of the benefits of having a \\"current thing" is that people's peacocking is more directly comparable?
Seems like one of the benefits of having a \\"current thing" is that people's peacocking is more directly comparable?
September 7, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Seems like one of the benefits of having a \\"current thing" is that people's peacocking is more directly comparable?
Subtle trap in teaching agency, but actually teaching a form of performative agency that involves a fair amount of preference falsification
August 30, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Subtle trap in teaching agency, but actually teaching a form of performative agency that involves a fair amount of preference falsification
Renewing my passport soon, so cut my beard. Looking forward to not being randomly stopped at airports &c
August 29, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Renewing my passport soon, so cut my beard. Looking forward to not being randomly stopped at airports &c
Well, it looks like I'll have to shift my career somewhat to de-emphasize object-level forecasting. Might get more into financing growth in developing countries
August 28, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Well, it looks like I'll have to shift my career somewhat to de-emphasize object-level forecasting. Might get more into financing growth in developing countries
Some discussion of federal accountability https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/the-institutional-structure-of-the
The Institutional Structure of the Federal Reserve
With a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed (ungated here) from Senator Elizabeth Warren, and a long Manhattan Institute essay last year by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran, the latter CEA Chair and Fed Board nominee, both ends of the horseshoe are calling for fundamental reform at the Fed.
www.grumpy-economist.com
August 27, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Some discussion of federal accountability https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/the-institutional-structure-of-the
A first draft of a Bayes intro was too complicated; I focused on the interesting parts to me (Cox's theorem) and neglected the basics; revisiting
August 20, 2025 at 9:15 AM
A first draft of a Bayes intro was too complicated; I focused on the interesting parts to me (Cox's theorem) and neglected the basics; revisiting
Hearing from someone who was previously strongly against some form of social puppeteering being applied to him, and is now strongly in favor of applying a virtuous form of social puppeteering to others
August 19, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Hearing from someone who was previously strongly against some form of social puppeteering being applied to him, and is now strongly in favor of applying a virtuous form of social puppeteering to others