Reposted
Interesting piece by Yanis Varoufakis, who is an opponent of Trump's policies in general but who nonetheless suspects that Trump has a more sophisticated understanding of global trade than most mainstream economists.
unherd.com/2025/02/why-...
unherd.com/2025/02/why-...
Donald Trump's economic masterplan
unherd.com
February 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Interesting piece by Yanis Varoufakis, who is an opponent of Trump's policies in general but who nonetheless suspects that Trump has a more sophisticated understanding of global trade than most mainstream economists.
unherd.com/2025/02/why-...
unherd.com/2025/02/why-...
Reposted
Indeed. Always surprised by the fact that the December 2021 Russian so-called European security treaties often tend to get lost in the political and analytical conversation. Putin has been remarkably clear as to what he wants (his July 2021 article on Ukraine, the December 2021 drafts)
February 13, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Indeed. Always surprised by the fact that the December 2021 Russian so-called European security treaties often tend to get lost in the political and analytical conversation. Putin has been remarkably clear as to what he wants (his July 2021 article on Ukraine, the December 2021 drafts)
Reposted
Alors que l'évolution des États-Unis pose de plus en plus de questions pour les alliés européens, #LeCollimateur fait un tour d'horizon des partenariats de défense et d'armement de la France, avec @vincentlamigeon.bsky.social (Challenges) et @elietenenbaum.bsky.social
lerubicon.org/collimateur-11…
lerubicon.org/collimateur-11…
February 11, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Alors que l'évolution des États-Unis pose de plus en plus de questions pour les alliés européens, #LeCollimateur fait un tour d'horizon des partenariats de défense et d'armement de la France, avec @vincentlamigeon.bsky.social (Challenges) et @elietenenbaum.bsky.social
lerubicon.org/collimateur-11…
lerubicon.org/collimateur-11…
Reposted
As GDP growth moderates and y-o-y comparisons get tougher, companies’ ability to defend their margins should be an increasingly important driver of #earnings growth, chart @JPMorganAM
January 24, 2025 at 7:50 AM
As GDP growth moderates and y-o-y comparisons get tougher, companies’ ability to defend their margins should be an increasingly important driver of #earnings growth, chart @JPMorganAM
Reposted
To summarize: the guys on the top right corner want to control the way Generali (G) is run. It didn't work the 1st time so they took a big stake in Mediobanca so that MB "instructs" Generali. It didn't work, so they bought a big stake in Monte so that Monte buys MB etc
January 24, 2025 at 8:13 AM
To summarize: the guys on the top right corner want to control the way Generali (G) is run. It didn't work the 1st time so they took a big stake in Mediobanca so that MB "instructs" Generali. It didn't work, so they bought a big stake in Monte so that Monte buys MB etc
Reposted
1/10
This kind of thinking – confusing nominal wages with the productivity wage gap – may be common, but it is no less muddled for all that. Yalcin argues that "Germany, for example, has one of the highest labor costs in the world" and yet still maintains a trade surplus.
This kind of thinking – confusing nominal wages with the productivity wage gap – may be common, but it is no less muddled for all that. Yalcin argues that "Germany, for example, has one of the highest labor costs in the world" and yet still maintains a trade surplus.
1/11 This is a simplistic take on trade dynamics, by @michaelpettis.bsky.social.The idea that trade conflicts start when surplus countries pursue beggar-thy-neighbor policies ignores structural factors like productivity, innovation, or consumer choices. Let me break it down in this thread:
1/11
Reuters: "WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said on Thursday that any tit-for-tat trade wars prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats would have...
www.reuters.com/markets/trad...
Reuters: "WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said on Thursday that any tit-for-tat trade wars prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats would have...
www.reuters.com/markets/trad...
January 24, 2025 at 9:14 AM
1/10
This kind of thinking – confusing nominal wages with the productivity wage gap – may be common, but it is no less muddled for all that. Yalcin argues that "Germany, for example, has one of the highest labor costs in the world" and yet still maintains a trade surplus.
This kind of thinking – confusing nominal wages with the productivity wage gap – may be common, but it is no less muddled for all that. Yalcin argues that "Germany, for example, has one of the highest labor costs in the world" and yet still maintains a trade surplus.
Reposted
At the start of 2024, only 34% of the countries we track have core #inflation below 3%. Today, that number has risen to 60%. The chart below shows the latest core inflation readings by country (Argentina and Turkey are not shown), along with the 5-year ranges.
January 24, 2025 at 3:00 PM
At the start of 2024, only 34% of the countries we track have core #inflation below 3%. Today, that number has risen to 60%. The chart below shows the latest core inflation readings by country (Argentina and Turkey are not shown), along with the 5-year ranges.
Reposted
Good Noah Smith piece on recent successes in reshoring American industry, especially in high-tech manufacturing.
open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...
open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...
Yes, reshoring American industry is possible
Americans can make stuff, after all.
open.substack.com
January 25, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Good Noah Smith piece on recent successes in reshoring American industry, especially in high-tech manufacturing.
open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...
open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...
Reposted
#euro area: #ECB is expected to cut rates 4x this year, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/markets/us/g...
January 25, 2025 at 8:11 AM
#euro area: #ECB is expected to cut rates 4x this year, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/markets/us/g...
Reposted
(Wow!) #ECB’s #wage tracker shows that #wage growth is likely to fall from 5.3% in 4Q2024to 1.4% in 4Q2025, chart #EFG @sgerlach.bsky.social
January 25, 2025 at 8:18 AM
(Wow!) #ECB’s #wage tracker shows that #wage growth is likely to fall from 5.3% in 4Q2024to 1.4% in 4Q2025, chart #EFG @sgerlach.bsky.social
Reposted
Reposted
post DeepSeek, compare China's new AI industrial policy - and its credit policy arm - to the derisking model proposed by Open AI for the US.
January 25, 2025 at 7:38 PM
post DeepSeek, compare China's new AI industrial policy - and its credit policy arm - to the derisking model proposed by Open AI for the US.
Reposted
“The AI revolution has only just begun,” writes Colin Kahl. “With advances once in the realm of science fiction now in the realm of possibility, the United States has no time to spare in crafting a coherent and truly global strategy.”
America Is Winning the Race for Global AI Primacy—for Now
To stay ahead of China, Trump must build on Biden's work.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 17, 2025 at 8:43 PM
“The AI revolution has only just begun,” writes Colin Kahl. “With advances once in the realm of science fiction now in the realm of possibility, the United States has no time to spare in crafting a coherent and truly global strategy.”
Reposted
Our real-time tracking for every component of the US economy is looking strong.
January 17, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Our real-time tracking for every component of the US economy is looking strong.
Reposted
2024: A global monetary easing cycle, chart @goldmansachsgroup.bsky.social
January 15, 2025 at 8:51 AM
2024: A global monetary easing cycle, chart @goldmansachsgroup.bsky.social
Reposted
À quelques jours de l’investiture de Donald Trump, le Kremlin prend la parole.
Dans cet entretien brutal, Nikolaï Patrushev annonce clairement la position de la Russie : le partage de l’Europe—la disparition de l'Ukraine.
Nous le traduisons.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/1...
Dans cet entretien brutal, Nikolaï Patrushev annonce clairement la position de la Russie : le partage de l’Europe—la disparition de l'Ukraine.
Nous le traduisons.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/1...
Poutine et le facteur Trump : «l’Ukraine pourrait cesser d’exister cette année» | Le Grand Continent
À quelques jours de l’investiture de Donald Trump, le Kremlin prend la parole par la voix de l’un des plus influents conseillers de Vladimir Poutine. Dans cet entretien brutal, Nikolaï Patrushev anno...
legrandcontinent.eu
January 15, 2025 at 10:17 AM
À quelques jours de l’investiture de Donald Trump, le Kremlin prend la parole.
Dans cet entretien brutal, Nikolaï Patrushev annonce clairement la position de la Russie : le partage de l’Europe—la disparition de l'Ukraine.
Nous le traduisons.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/1...
Dans cet entretien brutal, Nikolaï Patrushev annonce clairement la position de la Russie : le partage de l’Europe—la disparition de l'Ukraine.
Nous le traduisons.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/1...
Reposted
My piece in @financialtimes.com looks at central banker *types* and why highly educated, experienced policymakers can have widely different perspectives when presented with the same economic data
Featuring help from an LLM-powered index on hawkishness-dovishness 👇
Featuring help from an LLM-powered index on hawkishness-dovishness 👇
January 15, 2025 at 3:56 PM
My piece in @financialtimes.com looks at central banker *types* and why highly educated, experienced policymakers can have widely different perspectives when presented with the same economic data
Featuring help from an LLM-powered index on hawkishness-dovishness 👇
Featuring help from an LLM-powered index on hawkishness-dovishness 👇
Reposted
“Inflation turned out to be the Achilles’ heel of what was otherwise a strong U.S. economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic—and it sank the Democrats’ bid to retain power in 2024.”
Read @isabellamweber.bsky.social on the politically explosive effects of inflation:
Read @isabellamweber.bsky.social on the politically explosive effects of inflation:
The Governments That Survived Inflation
A policy toolkit to tame prices—and win elections.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 15, 2025 at 8:54 PM
“Inflation turned out to be the Achilles’ heel of what was otherwise a strong U.S. economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic—and it sank the Democrats’ bid to retain power in 2024.”
Read @isabellamweber.bsky.social on the politically explosive effects of inflation:
Read @isabellamweber.bsky.social on the politically explosive effects of inflation:
Reposted
Since the Fed began cutting rates in September 2024:
– Nominal growth has accelerated;
– Stocks are up (in spite of the recent 4% drawdown).
– Bond yields have jumped, with both real yields and breakeven inflation on the rise.
– The dollar has appreciated substantially.
– Nominal growth has accelerated;
– Stocks are up (in spite of the recent 4% drawdown).
– Bond yields have jumped, with both real yields and breakeven inflation on the rise.
– The dollar has appreciated substantially.
January 13, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Since the Fed began cutting rates in September 2024:
– Nominal growth has accelerated;
– Stocks are up (in spite of the recent 4% drawdown).
– Bond yields have jumped, with both real yields and breakeven inflation on the rise.
– The dollar has appreciated substantially.
– Nominal growth has accelerated;
– Stocks are up (in spite of the recent 4% drawdown).
– Bond yields have jumped, with both real yields and breakeven inflation on the rise.
– The dollar has appreciated substantially.
Reposted
Here's US supercore #inflation over various trailing periods. The M/M supercore inflation decelerated meaningfully to 2.5% (annualized).
January 15, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Here's US supercore #inflation over various trailing periods. The M/M supercore inflation decelerated meaningfully to 2.5% (annualized).
Reposted
Scaling up electrification should be part of the EU’s growth strategy, with a double dividend: lowering CO2 emissions and reducing the income transfer to the rest of the world which importing fossil fuel entails- notably to the US. 4/4. See the full weekly note here: www.axa-im.com/investment-i...
Electrify Europe
www.axa-im.com
November 25, 2024 at 6:13 PM
Scaling up electrification should be part of the EU’s growth strategy, with a double dividend: lowering CO2 emissions and reducing the income transfer to the rest of the world which importing fossil fuel entails- notably to the US. 4/4. See the full weekly note here: www.axa-im.com/investment-i...
