Nominal News
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PhD Economist, Writer at Nominal News. Applying economic research to real issues.
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One of the weaknesses in economic modelling is that we often significantly underestimate the cost of enforcement of things.
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
November 11, 2025 at 3:58 AM
One of the weaknesses in economic modelling is that we often significantly underestimate the cost of enforcement of things.
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
Is the large spend on genAI research motivated by potentially becoming an AI monopoly? That would match the paper of the recent Nobel Prize in economics from Aghion+Howitt?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
November 9, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Is the large spend on genAI research motivated by potentially becoming an AI monopoly? That would match the paper of the recent Nobel Prize in economics from Aghion+Howitt?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
In an upside surprise, it appears tariffs have contributed more to inflation than models predicted. Consumer price index is about 0.7pp higher than without tariffs (basically the entire amount of excess inflation).
October 29, 2025 at 6:53 PM
In an upside surprise, it appears tariffs have contributed more to inflation than models predicted. Consumer price index is about 0.7pp higher than without tariffs (basically the entire amount of excess inflation).
- Taking 10% equity in Intel? - That’s a wealth tax.
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
October 27, 2025 at 2:15 PM
- Taking 10% equity in Intel? - That’s a wealth tax.
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
Instead of thinking in terms of ‘labor shortage’, we should be thinking in terms of a ‘shortage of preferences’. Immigrants have simply different preferences for types of jobs than locals do. Without the immigrant, the job stops existing.
October 13, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Instead of thinking in terms of ‘labor shortage’, we should be thinking in terms of a ‘shortage of preferences’. Immigrants have simply different preferences for types of jobs than locals do. Without the immigrant, the job stops existing.
The US continues to do everything besides normal taxes - is this the start of a universal healthcare program in the US?
September 30, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The US continues to do everything besides normal taxes - is this the start of a universal healthcare program in the US?
From @stephensemler.bsky.social newsletter.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
September 24, 2025 at 2:51 AM
From @stephensemler.bsky.social newsletter.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
You may have seen this chart making the rounds about whether people are less conscientious. But are the really?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
September 22, 2025 at 6:58 PM
You may have seen this chart making the rounds about whether people are less conscientious. But are the really?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
Proponents of immigration restrictions believe that these restrictions will lead to higher domestic hiring. Shouldn't we see this falling then?
September 20, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Proponents of immigration restrictions believe that these restrictions will lead to higher domestic hiring. Shouldn't we see this falling then?
How to destroy your competitive advantage in one quick swoop:
September 19, 2025 at 8:02 PM
How to destroy your competitive advantage in one quick swoop:
Economics often has too much jargon and gate keeping. I want to change that - which is why I write my newsletter.
September 5, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Economics often has too much jargon and gate keeping. I want to change that - which is why I write my newsletter.
A chart that shows ‘native’ job employment up in the US while immigrant job employment is significantly down…maybe false!
Why? Well it's based on surveys. What's the main problem with surveys? People don't have an incentive to tell the truth and… actually respond at all.
Why? Well it's based on surveys. What's the main problem with surveys? People don't have an incentive to tell the truth and… actually respond at all.
September 4, 2025 at 2:35 PM
A chart that shows ‘native’ job employment up in the US while immigrant job employment is significantly down…maybe false!
Why? Well it's based on surveys. What's the main problem with surveys? People don't have an incentive to tell the truth and… actually respond at all.
Why? Well it's based on surveys. What's the main problem with surveys? People don't have an incentive to tell the truth and… actually respond at all.
We keep seeing sensational headlines like these - but often they are incorrect or meaningless.
I wrote a short guide on how to avoid such sensational headlines:
I wrote a short guide on how to avoid such sensational headlines:
September 3, 2025 at 11:54 PM
We keep seeing sensational headlines like these - but often they are incorrect or meaningless.
I wrote a short guide on how to avoid such sensational headlines:
I wrote a short guide on how to avoid such sensational headlines:
Media loves sensational economic stats headlines. If you want to filter out the noise, ask these 3 questions when reading any data headlines:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
September 3, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Media loves sensational economic stats headlines. If you want to filter out the noise, ask these 3 questions when reading any data headlines:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
Different reasons have been suggested as to why people weren't happy with the economy under Biden - inflation, mortgage rates, vibes.
Whatever you think it is, you need to grapple with the following two charts - real post tax/transfer income fell and many programs were cut.
Whatever you think it is, you need to grapple with the following two charts - real post tax/transfer income fell and many programs were cut.
August 28, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Different reasons have been suggested as to why people weren't happy with the economy under Biden - inflation, mortgage rates, vibes.
Whatever you think it is, you need to grapple with the following two charts - real post tax/transfer income fell and many programs were cut.
Whatever you think it is, you need to grapple with the following two charts - real post tax/transfer income fell and many programs were cut.
Huh... The Republican party is really pro-wealth tax. Who would have guessed.
August 25, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Huh... The Republican party is really pro-wealth tax. Who would have guessed.
The US will do everything before implementing better taxation.
August 25, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The US will do everything before implementing better taxation.
Will AI lead to a significant productivity increase? I'm skeptical.
We've already had several great technologies - like wells and piped water, which did boost productivity but not by that much.
I’d be surprised if AI was different.
We've already had several great technologies - like wells and piped water, which did boost productivity but not by that much.
I’d be surprised if AI was different.
August 21, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Will AI lead to a significant productivity increase? I'm skeptical.
We've already had several great technologies - like wells and piped water, which did boost productivity but not by that much.
I’d be surprised if AI was different.
We've already had several great technologies - like wells and piped water, which did boost productivity but not by that much.
I’d be surprised if AI was different.
The US economy unfortunately looks like it is heading towards this outcome (in comparison to an economy with no new tariffs). And this is without taking into the anti-immigration policy.
August 21, 2025 at 1:46 PM
The US economy unfortunately looks like it is heading towards this outcome (in comparison to an economy with no new tariffs). And this is without taking into the anti-immigration policy.
The criticism of the Fed is unjustified. Here’s a chart that shows their work. Absent shelter (which is only rent - a very lagged variable), US inflation of all non-shelter goods/services has been at or below 2% for 2 years. Note the recent uptick…
August 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The criticism of the Fed is unjustified. Here’s a chart that shows their work. Absent shelter (which is only rent - a very lagged variable), US inflation of all non-shelter goods/services has been at or below 2% for 2 years. Note the recent uptick…
The GDP measure does correlate well with welfare (first image). But it hides a lot of heterogeneity in how well countries convert GDP into welfare (second image).
Figuring out what drives this 'conversion' is important. Think of it like TFP for happiness
(Source: Jones and Klenow, 2016)
Figuring out what drives this 'conversion' is important. Think of it like TFP for happiness
(Source: Jones and Klenow, 2016)
August 19, 2025 at 2:36 PM
The GDP measure does correlate well with welfare (first image). But it hides a lot of heterogeneity in how well countries convert GDP into welfare (second image).
Figuring out what drives this 'conversion' is important. Think of it like TFP for happiness
(Source: Jones and Klenow, 2016)
Figuring out what drives this 'conversion' is important. Think of it like TFP for happiness
(Source: Jones and Klenow, 2016)
Update: based on the tariffs that were set at the end of June, here is how key economic variables for the US are expected to behave.
Whether other countries retaliate or don’t, the adverse on impact on US workers will be large - a 4% fall in real wages.
Whether other countries retaliate or don’t, the adverse on impact on US workers will be large - a 4% fall in real wages.
August 7, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Update: based on the tariffs that were set at the end of June, here is how key economic variables for the US are expected to behave.
Whether other countries retaliate or don’t, the adverse on impact on US workers will be large - a 4% fall in real wages.
Whether other countries retaliate or don’t, the adverse on impact on US workers will be large - a 4% fall in real wages.
Right on cue - another billionaire knows what it means to estimate data. He believes this - 159,309,000 to 159,669,000 - is not an accurate enough estimate of the number of jobs in the US.
August 4, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Right on cue - another billionaire knows what it means to estimate data. He believes this - 159,309,000 to 159,669,000 - is not an accurate enough estimate of the number of jobs in the US.
The Federal Reserve's Fed Funds Rate is basically where the Taylor Rule would tell us it should be.
July 28, 2025 at 2:39 PM
The Federal Reserve's Fed Funds Rate is basically where the Taylor Rule would tell us it should be.
Jerome Powell has come under significant criticism. Under closer inspection, the Federal Reserve's decisions are fully driven by economics.
Full article in the comment below, and if you enjoy my work even a bit, please subscribe (it's completely free!)
Full article in the comment below, and if you enjoy my work even a bit, please subscribe (it's completely free!)
July 27, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Jerome Powell has come under significant criticism. Under closer inspection, the Federal Reserve's decisions are fully driven by economics.
Full article in the comment below, and if you enjoy my work even a bit, please subscribe (it's completely free!)
Full article in the comment below, and if you enjoy my work even a bit, please subscribe (it's completely free!)