Nominal News
@nominalnews.com
PhD Economist, Writer at Nominal News. Applying economic research to real issues.
Subscribe (free!) to support my work and receive weekly updates! www.nominalnews.com
Subscribe (free!) to support my work and receive weekly updates! www.nominalnews.com
Pinned
Nominal News
@nominalnews.com
· Nov 20
Here is a list of individuals that have a newsletter on substack talking about academic economic and finance research! If you want great, longer form content - this one is for you: go.bsky.app/LVtV86W
The Louie, Mondragon and Wieland (2025) paper (along with two paper responses and an FAQ!) shows that supply constraints (zoning etc) cannot explain the observed house price differences.
What does? Income.
www.nominalnews.com/p/housing-an...
What does? Income.
www.nominalnews.com/p/housing-an...
Housing and Affordability – No Easy Solutions
A new paper on housing supply constraints suggests they do not matter for affordability.
www.nominalnews.com
November 18, 2025 at 3:43 PM
The Louie, Mondragon and Wieland (2025) paper (along with two paper responses and an FAQ!) shows that supply constraints (zoning etc) cannot explain the observed house price differences.
What does? Income.
www.nominalnews.com/p/housing-an...
What does? Income.
www.nominalnews.com/p/housing-an...
Is this admitting to the permanent limitations of the current genAI approach?
November 18, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Is this admitting to the permanent limitations of the current genAI approach?
LOL - right on cue, news media starts talking about gift giving
November 18, 2025 at 12:34 AM
LOL - right on cue, news media starts talking about gift giving
With holiday season around corner, we will start seeing news articles quoting economists that say ‘gift-giving is a negative value activity, and cash gifts are better’. Is it true?
No! - better research has shown that gift-giving, besides any social implications, generates a lot of value!
No! - better research has shown that gift-giving, besides any social implications, generates a lot of value!
November 17, 2025 at 5:29 PM
With holiday season around corner, we will start seeing news articles quoting economists that say ‘gift-giving is a negative value activity, and cash gifts are better’. Is it true?
No! - better research has shown that gift-giving, besides any social implications, generates a lot of value!
No! - better research has shown that gift-giving, besides any social implications, generates a lot of value!
You can always bring down inflation by slowing down the economy with interest rates. That’s why you may see ‘low inflation’ under tariffs.
Tariffs → inflation ticks up → Central Bank responds by raising rates → Unemployment ticks up → wages fall → inflation falls.
Tariffs → inflation ticks up → Central Bank responds by raising rates → Unemployment ticks up → wages fall → inflation falls.
November 17, 2025 at 3:26 PM
You can always bring down inflation by slowing down the economy with interest rates. That’s why you may see ‘low inflation’ under tariffs.
Tariffs → inflation ticks up → Central Bank responds by raising rates → Unemployment ticks up → wages fall → inflation falls.
Tariffs → inflation ticks up → Central Bank responds by raising rates → Unemployment ticks up → wages fall → inflation falls.
One of the weaknesses in economic modelling is that we often significantly underestimate the cost of enforcement of things.
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
November 11, 2025 at 3:58 AM
One of the weaknesses in economic modelling is that we often significantly underestimate the cost of enforcement of things.
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
This makes means-testing often a worthless, if not negative value, exercise.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
Is the large spend on genAI research motivated by potentially becoming an AI monopoly? That would match the paper of the recent Nobel Prize in economics from Aghion+Howitt?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
November 9, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Is the large spend on genAI research motivated by potentially becoming an AI monopoly? That would match the paper of the recent Nobel Prize in economics from Aghion+Howitt?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
Can a firm even become an AI monopoly?
I would not think that this is a good policy mix from an economic and political perspective:
- Increasing goods/food costs via tariffs;
- Denying SNAP benefits;
- Denying pay to government workers;
- Cutting healthcare assistance.
I wonder if this would also be called a ‘vibecession’….
- Increasing goods/food costs via tariffs;
- Denying SNAP benefits;
- Denying pay to government workers;
- Cutting healthcare assistance.
I wonder if this would also be called a ‘vibecession’….
November 9, 2025 at 3:21 AM
I would not think that this is a good policy mix from an economic and political perspective:
- Increasing goods/food costs via tariffs;
- Denying SNAP benefits;
- Denying pay to government workers;
- Cutting healthcare assistance.
I wonder if this would also be called a ‘vibecession’….
- Increasing goods/food costs via tariffs;
- Denying SNAP benefits;
- Denying pay to government workers;
- Cutting healthcare assistance.
I wonder if this would also be called a ‘vibecession’….
The Economics Nobel was awarded to Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt for their research on technological and economic growth.
I’ve written about the Aghion and Howitt research - if you want to find out how ‘simple’ economics can give us plenty of insights - have a read!
www.nominalnews.com/p/aghion-how...
I’ve written about the Aghion and Howitt research - if you want to find out how ‘simple’ economics can give us plenty of insights - have a read!
www.nominalnews.com/p/aghion-how...
Timely Economics Nobel – Creative Destruction and genAI
The recent Economics Nobel Prize focuses on economic and technological growth
www.nominalnews.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The Economics Nobel was awarded to Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt for their research on technological and economic growth.
I’ve written about the Aghion and Howitt research - if you want to find out how ‘simple’ economics can give us plenty of insights - have a read!
www.nominalnews.com/p/aghion-how...
I’ve written about the Aghion and Howitt research - if you want to find out how ‘simple’ economics can give us plenty of insights - have a read!
www.nominalnews.com/p/aghion-how...
The dangers of genAI and economic policy discussion:
Not sure if anyone discussed this, but because in economics there has been a lot written about every economic theory and mechanism, genAI appears to treat every one of them as equally applicable.
Not sure if anyone discussed this, but because in economics there has been a lot written about every economic theory and mechanism, genAI appears to treat every one of them as equally applicable.
November 6, 2025 at 3:18 PM
The dangers of genAI and economic policy discussion:
Not sure if anyone discussed this, but because in economics there has been a lot written about every economic theory and mechanism, genAI appears to treat every one of them as equally applicable.
Not sure if anyone discussed this, but because in economics there has been a lot written about every economic theory and mechanism, genAI appears to treat every one of them as equally applicable.
So if tariffs get voided by the Supreme Court, there’s a chance that the tariff revenue will have to be refunded to the tariff payers - i.e. firms.
Since firms already passed some of the tariff cost to consumers, the de facto outcome would be a transfer from consumers to firms.
No comment.
Since firms already passed some of the tariff cost to consumers, the de facto outcome would be a transfer from consumers to firms.
No comment.
November 5, 2025 at 10:32 PM
So if tariffs get voided by the Supreme Court, there’s a chance that the tariff revenue will have to be refunded to the tariff payers - i.e. firms.
Since firms already passed some of the tariff cost to consumers, the de facto outcome would be a transfer from consumers to firms.
No comment.
Since firms already passed some of the tariff cost to consumers, the de facto outcome would be a transfer from consumers to firms.
No comment.
Why is there much criticism of the NK model on the other site? Am I missing something?
I thought it explained the optimal response to the Covid inflation very well.
I thought it explained the optimal response to the Covid inflation very well.
November 1, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Why is there much criticism of the NK model on the other site? Am I missing something?
I thought it explained the optimal response to the Covid inflation very well.
I thought it explained the optimal response to the Covid inflation very well.
I see some that some polls have shown that work requirements are a "popular" policy. They sounds good theoretically, but are actually really bad:
www.nominalnews.com/p/work-requi...
www.nominalnews.com/p/work-requi...
Work Requirements - An Ineffective Policy
Work requirements are often touted as a remedy to prevent the misuse of benefits. Instead, they only end up harming those who are most in need.
www.nominalnews.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:22 AM
I see some that some polls have shown that work requirements are a "popular" policy. They sounds good theoretically, but are actually really bad:
www.nominalnews.com/p/work-requi...
www.nominalnews.com/p/work-requi...
In an upside surprise, it appears tariffs have contributed more to inflation than models predicted. Consumer price index is about 0.7pp higher than without tariffs (basically the entire amount of excess inflation).
October 29, 2025 at 6:53 PM
In an upside surprise, it appears tariffs have contributed more to inflation than models predicted. Consumer price index is about 0.7pp higher than without tariffs (basically the entire amount of excess inflation).
Increasing police is not the only solution. Research by Blattman, Duncan, Lessing and Tobon (2023) showed how civilian government interventions in higher trust areas can have significant impact on crime reduction and QoL improvements.
www.nominalnews.com/p/community-...
www.nominalnews.com/p/community-...
Community Civilian Interventions
Many countries have issues with policing. In the US, there have been numerous high profile conflicts with police. Community interventions have been proposed as an alternative.
www.nominalnews.com
October 28, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Increasing police is not the only solution. Research by Blattman, Duncan, Lessing and Tobon (2023) showed how civilian government interventions in higher trust areas can have significant impact on crime reduction and QoL improvements.
www.nominalnews.com/p/community-...
www.nominalnews.com/p/community-...
If you, like me, are curious about economic and social questions, come join me at Nominal News.
During my PhD, I read many economics papers, and I now share the latest findings in clear, approachable weekly posts on Substack.
During my PhD, I read many economics papers, and I now share the latest findings in clear, approachable weekly posts on Substack.
October 28, 2025 at 2:38 AM
If you, like me, are curious about economic and social questions, come join me at Nominal News.
During my PhD, I read many economics papers, and I now share the latest findings in clear, approachable weekly posts on Substack.
During my PhD, I read many economics papers, and I now share the latest findings in clear, approachable weekly posts on Substack.
- Taking 10% equity in Intel? - That’s a wealth tax.
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
October 27, 2025 at 2:15 PM
- Taking 10% equity in Intel? - That’s a wealth tax.
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
- Tariffs? - That’s a tax on imported goods.
- Bus fare? - That’s a lump sum tax on bus users.
- Government debt? - That’s a tax today with a defined transfer/negative tax in the future (that has to be paid for with taxes).
How taking equity stakes in companies, raising tariffs, and issuing government debt is all just tax.
By viewing the different forms of government raising revenues as a form of tax, it's easier to study the distributional and efficiency impacts of these solutions
www.nominalnews.com/p/intel-equi...
By viewing the different forms of government raising revenues as a form of tax, it's easier to study the distributional and efficiency impacts of these solutions
www.nominalnews.com/p/intel-equi...
A Tax By Any Other Name: Equity Stakes, Tariffs, Government Debt
Taking equity stakes in companies, raising tariffs, and even issuing government debt – it's all tax.
www.nominalnews.com
October 27, 2025 at 1:44 AM
How taking equity stakes in companies, raising tariffs, and issuing government debt is all just tax.
By viewing the different forms of government raising revenues as a form of tax, it's easier to study the distributional and efficiency impacts of these solutions
www.nominalnews.com/p/intel-equi...
By viewing the different forms of government raising revenues as a form of tax, it's easier to study the distributional and efficiency impacts of these solutions
www.nominalnews.com/p/intel-equi...
You may find it surprising, but in the free bus debate, some economic research would even argue for negative fares - you get paid to use transit!
www.nominalnews.com/p/fare-free-...
www.nominalnews.com/p/fare-free-...
Clearing Up the Free-Bus Debate
The provision of a government service, such as buses, and how to fund it, are fundamentally two different questions.
www.nominalnews.com
October 26, 2025 at 12:28 AM
You may find it surprising, but in the free bus debate, some economic research would even argue for negative fares - you get paid to use transit!
www.nominalnews.com/p/fare-free-...
www.nominalnews.com/p/fare-free-...
Thinking of labor in terms of purely supply/demand curves is the reason why many think immigrants compete for jobs and reduce pay.
But in reality, without immigrants, many of these jobs wouldn't exist.
www.nominalnews.com/p/high-skill...
But in reality, without immigrants, many of these jobs wouldn't exist.
www.nominalnews.com/p/high-skill...
High Skilled Immigration – the H-1B Visa
The US imposed a $100,000 fee on high-skilled immigrant petitions – a very costly decision for the US
www.nominalnews.com
October 13, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Thinking of labor in terms of purely supply/demand curves is the reason why many think immigrants compete for jobs and reduce pay.
But in reality, without immigrants, many of these jobs wouldn't exist.
www.nominalnews.com/p/high-skill...
But in reality, without immigrants, many of these jobs wouldn't exist.
www.nominalnews.com/p/high-skill...
Instead of thinking in terms of ‘labor shortage’, we should be thinking in terms of a ‘shortage of preferences’. Immigrants have simply different preferences for types of jobs than locals do. Without the immigrant, the job stops existing.
October 13, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Instead of thinking in terms of ‘labor shortage’, we should be thinking in terms of a ‘shortage of preferences’. Immigrants have simply different preferences for types of jobs than locals do. Without the immigrant, the job stops existing.
The US continues to do everything besides normal taxes - is this the start of a universal healthcare program in the US?
September 30, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The US continues to do everything besides normal taxes - is this the start of a universal healthcare program in the US?
From @stephensemler.bsky.social newsletter.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
September 24, 2025 at 2:51 AM
From @stephensemler.bsky.social newsletter.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
That's why I was never a fan of the ‘vibecession' theory - things got worse for many when many programs like the child tax credit got cut.
You may have seen this chart making the rounds about whether people are less conscientious. But are the really?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
September 22, 2025 at 6:58 PM
You may have seen this chart making the rounds about whether people are less conscientious. But are the really?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
I took a deeper dive, asking three questions:
1. Why are we looking at this data?
2. Did the authors explain the data?
3. Is the data unexpected?
Research on immigration shows that immigrants bring significant economic value and are in many cases positive for the fiscal health of the government. The three articles below describe this research at length:
September 20, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Research on immigration shows that immigrants bring significant economic value and are in many cases positive for the fiscal health of the government. The three articles below describe this research at length: