Paul Pomeroy
@nmpaul.bsky.social
Long retired software developer. Serial dabbler in music, art, photography. Used to believe climate change was a slow motion train wreck. Don't think it's all that slow anymore.
Oops ... Tired eyes here.
January 10, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Oops ... Tired eyes here.
True. Probably just as true now. It is kind of fascinating HOW we've been off -- i.e., what we got (get?) wrong.
January 6, 2026 at 2:31 PM
True. Probably just as true now. It is kind of fascinating HOW we've been off -- i.e., what we got (get?) wrong.
As much as I loved that show (enough that I've rewatched it twice), and the way they handled the science, I couldn't help but notice how off they were on the AI.
January 6, 2026 at 12:54 AM
As much as I loved that show (enough that I've rewatched it twice), and the way they handled the science, I couldn't help but notice how off they were on the AI.
I would not count on any big changes when Trump leaves office. Trump is solely interested in accumulating money and power. The only reason he's concerning himself with wind projects is because the people promising him money and power have told him to.
December 23, 2025 at 2:36 PM
I would not count on any big changes when Trump leaves office. Trump is solely interested in accumulating money and power. The only reason he's concerning himself with wind projects is because the people promising him money and power have told him to.
I just noticed that the chart is using a 1901-2000 average as a baseline instead of the preindustrial 1850-1900. The 1901-2000 average is 0.255C above the preindustrial's.
December 16, 2025 at 4:34 PM
I just noticed that the chart is using a 1901-2000 average as a baseline instead of the preindustrial 1850-1900. The 1901-2000 average is 0.255C above the preindustrial's.
FYI, this is a 2019 chart using predictions made in 2017. The 5 year average will likely reach +1.5°C within the next 18 months. The 3-year 2023-2025 average is the first to reach +1.5°C.
December 16, 2025 at 4:27 PM
FYI, this is a 2019 chart using predictions made in 2017. The 5 year average will likely reach +1.5°C within the next 18 months. The 3-year 2023-2025 average is the first to reach +1.5°C.
"Well-paying jobs"? What does that mean? Perhaps in 5 years people will be yelling, "Where are all those great jobs you promised?" and the government will reply, "Well ...".
December 5, 2025 at 2:49 PM
"Well-paying jobs"? What does that mean? Perhaps in 5 years people will be yelling, "Where are all those great jobs you promised?" and the government will reply, "Well ...".
Sounds like Butler's "Parable Of The Sower" series except for that "from a /thriving/ home planet" part.
December 3, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Sounds like Butler's "Parable Of The Sower" series except for that "from a /thriving/ home planet" part.
The Wayback Machine didn't get copies? web.archive.org
Wayback Machine
web.archive.org
December 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
The Wayback Machine didn't get copies? web.archive.org
With all due respect to Dr. Hansen, switching base periods around just invites confusion, imho (especially when you present 2 plots using different ones). For anyone interested, 1880-1920 was ~ 0.047°C colder than 1850-1900.
November 16, 2025 at 11:46 PM
With all due respect to Dr. Hansen, switching base periods around just invites confusion, imho (especially when you present 2 plots using different ones). For anyone interested, 1880-1920 was ~ 0.047°C colder than 1850-1900.
![Plot of 20-year average anomalies (pre-industrial base) with quadratic trend line calculated from yearly averages from 1941 to 2024. The trend line is extended out to 2050. It crosses +1.5°C in late 2035 and +2.0°C in 2049. The trend line, as plotted, shows an acceleration in the warming rate. [Source data: HadCRUT5]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnpctyv6nku3x67u5agkq63f/bafkreiahnii2kdphy4dxtlfd7uogj6vkjlln2wkd6cy3kht4pepc7syuzi@jpeg)
About time! Any idea how they project the next 10 years? My own attempts at this indicate a quadratic trend line is good but depends a LOT on how many years of actual data it's calculated from.
November 12, 2025 at 3:04 PM
About time! Any idea how they project the next 10 years? My own attempts at this indicate a quadratic trend line is good but depends a LOT on how many years of actual data it's calculated from.
Probably not what you were looking for ... but Naomi Shihab Nye's poem "Kindness" is always worth considering imho.
October 25, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Probably not what you were looking for ... but Naomi Shihab Nye's poem "Kindness" is always worth considering imho.
"Before you know kindness as the deepest thing inside,
you must know sorrow as the other deepest thing.
You must wake up with sorrow.
You must speak to it till your voice
catches the thread of all sorrows
and you see the size of the cloth.
Then it is only kindness that makes sense anymore[.]”
you must know sorrow as the other deepest thing.
You must wake up with sorrow.
You must speak to it till your voice
catches the thread of all sorrows
and you see the size of the cloth.
Then it is only kindness that makes sense anymore[.]”
October 25, 2025 at 11:49 PM
"Before you know kindness as the deepest thing inside,
you must know sorrow as the other deepest thing.
You must wake up with sorrow.
You must speak to it till your voice
catches the thread of all sorrows
and you see the size of the cloth.
Then it is only kindness that makes sense anymore[.]”
you must know sorrow as the other deepest thing.
You must wake up with sorrow.
You must speak to it till your voice
catches the thread of all sorrows
and you see the size of the cloth.
Then it is only kindness that makes sense anymore[.]”
The above video states that we can get the "good stuff" from a barrel of crude without also getting all the fuel products (comprising roughly 90% of the barrel). The question is whether or not the methods to do that are viable and, if so, how fast they can be implemented.
September 29, 2025 at 2:08 PM
The above video states that we can get the "good stuff" from a barrel of crude without also getting all the fuel products (comprising roughly 90% of the barrel). The question is whether or not the methods to do that are viable and, if so, how fast they can be implemented.
The probability that any event, small or large, will change the future is 1.0. Given such an event, however, the probability that it will change the future in some specific way is far closer to 0.0.
September 29, 2025 at 1:47 PM
The probability that any event, small or large, will change the future is 1.0. Given such an event, however, the probability that it will change the future in some specific way is far closer to 0.0.
Have you looked at the problem of getting the non-fuel "stuff" out of crude oil without also having to get all the fuels with it? I understand it's technically possible but I don't know if it's in the realm of doable (at least in time to matter).
September 28, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Have you looked at the problem of getting the non-fuel "stuff" out of crude oil without also having to get all the fuels with it? I understand it's technically possible but I don't know if it's in the realm of doable (at least in time to matter).
Asked and answered. The 5, 10, 20 and 30 year average anomalies all began their unbroken rise in 1976.
September 23, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Asked and answered. The 5, 10, 20 and 30 year average anomalies all began their unbroken rise in 1976.
Perhaps "preliminary" is a euphemism for "that can't be real!"? But I'd argue that the whole of 2025, and 2024 (not to mention most of 2023) is just as unprecedented. The whole system's like a wobbling top about to tip over.
September 22, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Perhaps "preliminary" is a euphemism for "that can't be real!"? But I'd argue that the whole of 2025, and 2024 (not to mention most of 2023) is just as unprecedented. The whole system's like a wobbling top about to tip over.
They’re waving bye bye …
September 11, 2025 at 11:50 AM
They’re waving bye bye …
Here's a Wordle-like game (with a twist) I wrote back in 2022. It's been dormant for awhile but a couple of things motivated me to load it up with new words through the end of the month (at least). games.24x7arts.com/ThisNotThat/
THIS NOT THAT (a daily word game)
A Daily Word Guessing Game
games.24x7arts.com
September 10, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Here's a Wordle-like game (with a twist) I wrote back in 2022. It's been dormant for awhile but a couple of things motivated me to load it up with new words through the end of the month (at least). games.24x7arts.com/ThisNotThat/