Paul Pomeroy
@nmpaul.bsky.social
Long retired software developer. Serial dabbler in music, art, photography. Used to believe climate change was a slow motion train wreck. Don't think it's all that slow anymore.
![Plot of 20-year average anomalies (pre-industrial base) with quadratic trend line calculated from yearly averages from 1941 to 2024. The trend line is extended out to 2050. It crosses +1.5°C in late 2035 and +2.0°C in 2049. The trend line, as plotted, shows an acceleration in the warming rate. [Source data: HadCRUT5]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnpctyv6nku3x67u5agkq63f/bafkreiahnii2kdphy4dxtlfd7uogj6vkjlln2wkd6cy3kht4pepc7syuzi@jpeg)
Asked and answered. The 5, 10, 20 and 30 year average anomalies all began their unbroken rise in 1976.
September 23, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Asked and answered. The 5, 10, 20 and 30 year average anomalies all began their unbroken rise in 1976.
Perhaps "preliminary" is a euphemism for "that can't be real!"? But I'd argue that the whole of 2025, and 2024 (not to mention most of 2023) is just as unprecedented. The whole system's like a wobbling top about to tip over.
September 22, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Perhaps "preliminary" is a euphemism for "that can't be real!"? But I'd argue that the whole of 2025, and 2024 (not to mention most of 2023) is just as unprecedented. The whole system's like a wobbling top about to tip over.
Mother Nature's so desperate she's using daily SSTs to get our attention. It looks like she's trying to give us a URL? www·toolate·net perhaps? Or maybe she's just waving goodbye.
September 15, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Mother Nature's so desperate she's using daily SSTs to get our attention. It looks like she's trying to give us a URL? www·toolate·net perhaps? Or maybe she's just waving goodbye.
It's occurred to me that the "bands" one sees in these plot lines (all 4 quite distinct in July & August) might be thought of as "slipping points." I'm reminded of fault lines that build up tension and then suddenly slip. Here, though, it is the SSTs that slip higher and higher. #climate
August 15, 2025 at 11:20 PM
It's occurred to me that the "bands" one sees in these plot lines (all 4 quite distinct in July & August) might be thought of as "slipping points." I'm reminded of fault lines that build up tension and then suddenly slip. Here, though, it is the SSTs that slip higher and higher. #climate
Past halfway (again) to beating my "Max Streak".
August 11, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Past halfway (again) to beating my "Max Streak".
If you haven't already, try using Glossy Photo Paper (the kind you get for ink-jet printers). It readily "accepts" the image and holds up well to all the post-exposure washing.
August 11, 2025 at 1:03 PM
If you haven't already, try using Glossy Photo Paper (the kind you get for ink-jet printers). It readily "accepts" the image and holds up well to all the post-exposure washing.
It's a very complex system with lots of places excess energy can go. One is the oceans. [See the ALT text for the image.]
![ClimateReanalyzer.org plot of global, non-polar Daily Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). The thick gray line traces the 2016 SST. It peaks in early March, breaking the record high SST by a wide margin. That record held until 2023. Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years. The thick "blood red" line traces 2025 (a weak La Niña/neutral year). Of note, despite the lack of an El Niño, 2025's daily values are *all* higher than 2016's. [Image source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnpctyv6nku3x67u5agkq63f/bafkreia2litzzimyl3yw76rygf7ocohmb25gaxlyuy3agyillvqx3qs46e@jpeg)
August 6, 2025 at 3:05 PM
It's a very complex system with lots of places excess energy can go. One is the oceans. [See the ALT text for the image.]
It's always nice––especially now when the opportunities for worry are so abundant and impossible to avoid––to be able to unclinch the fists and let my fingers do something more productive just for awhile.
July 15, 2025 at 5:08 PM
It's always nice––especially now when the opportunities for worry are so abundant and impossible to avoid––to be able to unclinch the fists and let my fingers do something more productive just for awhile.
Maybe just me but they seem a bit inconsistent. E.g., they state that we are facing "catastrophic" consequences, incl. >2 billions deaths, but later omit the deaths in their "Human Impact" summary. It would also be nice if they'd skip the "may", "could", "if unchecked then ..." qualifiers.
July 14, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Maybe just me but they seem a bit inconsistent. E.g., they state that we are facing "catastrophic" consequences, incl. >2 billions deaths, but later omit the deaths in their "Human Impact" summary. It would also be nice if they'd skip the "may", "could", "if unchecked then ..." qualifiers.
Somewhat related: How the average anomaly of the past 5, 10 and 20 years compare to the 30 year average.
June 22, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Somewhat related: How the average anomaly of the past 5, 10 and 20 years compare to the 30 year average.
"We attend also to the world's extraordinary surprise: its refusal to quit, the weed flowering in the tar, the way beauty and brokenness so often go together. If we are among the lucky [...] we are shaped, spontaneously, by gratitude." – Jan Zwicky, "Learning To Die"
February 9, 2025 at 4:32 PM
"We attend also to the world's extraordinary surprise: its refusal to quit, the weed flowering in the tar, the way beauty and brokenness so often go together. If we are among the lucky [...] we are shaped, spontaneously, by gratitude." – Jan Zwicky, "Learning To Die"
I'm wondering about how they're accelerating. There are clear (clear-ish?) bands in the data. SSTs aren't rising smoothly. They're ratcheting up, hovering around a local minimum awhile and then leaping up to the next (with 2023-2024 being a new one).
January 19, 2025 at 4:18 PM
I'm wondering about how they're accelerating. There are clear (clear-ish?) bands in the data. SSTs aren't rising smoothly. They're ratcheting up, hovering around a local minimum awhile and then leaping up to the next (with 2023-2024 being a new one).
Here are the "final" numbers now that all the 2024 data is in.
January 13, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Here are the "final" numbers now that all the 2024 data is in.
I haven't found a trend line function (in Google Sheets) that fits. The data seems to be "between" exponential and linear.
December 31, 2024 at 2:30 PM
I haven't found a trend line function (in Google Sheets) that fits. The data seems to be "between" exponential and linear.
Two milestones of sorts for the #Climate in 2024. For the first time: the yearly average anomaly will exceed +1.5C and the 30-year average will exceed +1.0C (pink highlights show when the other periods did).
[Data: HadCRUT5 Analysis, global land/sea air temps, infilled; 12/19/2024]
[Data: HadCRUT5 Analysis, global land/sea air temps, infilled; 12/19/2024]
December 23, 2024 at 5:22 PM
Two milestones of sorts for the #Climate in 2024. For the first time: the yearly average anomaly will exceed +1.5C and the 30-year average will exceed +1.0C (pink highlights show when the other periods did).
[Data: HadCRUT5 Analysis, global land/sea air temps, infilled; 12/19/2024]
[Data: HadCRUT5 Analysis, global land/sea air temps, infilled; 12/19/2024]
'A' Is For Art –– photo taken November, 2007.
December 21, 2024 at 1:28 AM
'A' Is For Art –– photo taken November, 2007.
A statue of the Buddha petting his dog Koan.
December 21, 2024 at 1:14 AM
A statue of the Buddha petting his dog Koan.
Before they were assimilated, you used to be able to record your thoughts using devices like this. This one belonged to my dad and, before that, his dad. [I took this photo back in 2014.]
November 28, 2024 at 3:53 PM
Before they were assimilated, you used to be able to record your thoughts using devices like this. This one belonged to my dad and, before that, his dad. [I took this photo back in 2014.]
Urban Fossil.
[A photo I took back in 2009. It's a negative of grooves cut into a sidewalk.]
[A photo I took back in 2009. It's a negative of grooves cut into a sidewalk.]
November 20, 2024 at 3:56 PM
Urban Fossil.
[A photo I took back in 2009. It's a negative of grooves cut into a sidewalk.]
[A photo I took back in 2009. It's a negative of grooves cut into a sidewalk.]
Any idea what is causing the "banding" in the global SSTs?
November 20, 2024 at 3:21 PM
Any idea what is causing the "banding" in the global SSTs?
Not sure what to make of the obvious banding in the daily global Sea Surface Temperatures. It suggests a "ratcheting up" of values. What is obvious is that 2023-2024 are troubling outliers.
November 18, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Not sure what to make of the obvious banding in the daily global Sea Surface Temperatures. It suggests a "ratcheting up" of values. What is obvious is that 2023-2024 are troubling outliers.
This world – sometimes the best one can do is try to add a little beauty to it, yes? Here's my 1 minute contribution ...
November 17, 2024 at 11:53 PM
This world – sometimes the best one can do is try to add a little beauty to it, yes? Here's my 1 minute contribution ...