Nico Saldías
@nicsaldias.bsky.social
PhD from UofT PolSci|Senior Analyst @ EIU 🇦🇷🇨🇱🇺🇾|Fmr Senior Researcher @ the Wilson Center's LATAM program & Argentina Project|Views my own|🇺🇾🇨🇦🇺🇸
Pinned
Nico Saldías
@nicsaldias.bsky.social
· Mar 31
Nicolás Saldías: “El FMI no le va a dar todo a Milei. Aún con Trump en el poder, es muy difícil imaginar eso”
Trump y el nuevo orden global: ¿riesgos para el Mundial 2026 por la tensión con México y Canadá? Milei, Trump y el FMI, ¿cuánto influye EE.UU. en el Fondo? El politólogo hace su análisis
www.lanacion.com.ar
Dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social en una larga entrevista que "El ancla principal de cualquier país democrático en desarrollo es tener una justicia independiente y fuerte. Sin eso, es difícil mantener un sendero de crecimiento y desarrollo”
www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...
www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...
A February poll from Colombia shows that support for civil unions between homosexual couples is falling and consistently so. Its one of a growing number of polls showing support for gay rights slipping.
May 4, 2025 at 7:38 PM
A February poll from Colombia shows that support for civil unions between homosexual couples is falling and consistently so. Its one of a growing number of polls showing support for gay rights slipping.
Agradezco la oportunidad de hablar sobre la incertidumbre económica en el mundo y las oportunidades y desafíos para América Latina en un contexto global cada vez más proteccionista con Bloomberg Línea.
www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoameric...
www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoameric...
Cómo interpretar los aranceles de Trump en Latinoamérica y los desafíos que enfrenta Milei
Capítulo 828 de La Estrategia del Día Argentina: Una entrevista con Nicolás Saldías, analista senior para Latinoamérica en The Economist Intelligence Unit
www.bloomberglinea.com
April 7, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Agradezco la oportunidad de hablar sobre la incertidumbre económica en el mundo y las oportunidades y desafíos para América Latina en un contexto global cada vez más proteccionista con Bloomberg Línea.
www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoameric...
www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoameric...
The US's weighted average tariff rate (WATR) went from 2.3% in 2024 to 25.5% following the "liberation day" announcement. For context, Mercosur's WATR is 9.5%.
April 3, 2025 at 7:12 PM
The US's weighted average tariff rate (WATR) went from 2.3% in 2024 to 25.5% following the "liberation day" announcement. For context, Mercosur's WATR is 9.5%.
Mercosur va a tener el mismo arancel que Chile, Perú y Colombia, a pesar de que ellos tienen un TLC con EEUU
Mercosur will have the same tariff as Chile, Peru, and Colombia, despite the fact that they have a free trade agreement with the U.S
Mercosur will have the same tariff as Chile, Peru, and Colombia, despite the fact that they have a free trade agreement with the U.S
April 2, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Mercosur va a tener el mismo arancel que Chile, Perú y Colombia, a pesar de que ellos tienen un TLC con EEUU
Mercosur will have the same tariff as Chile, Peru, and Colombia, despite the fact that they have a free trade agreement with the U.S
Mercosur will have the same tariff as Chile, Peru, and Colombia, despite the fact that they have a free trade agreement with the U.S
Dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social en una larga entrevista que "El ancla principal de cualquier país democrático en desarrollo es tener una justicia independiente y fuerte. Sin eso, es difícil mantener un sendero de crecimiento y desarrollo”
www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...
www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...
Nicolás Saldías: “El FMI no le va a dar todo a Milei. Aún con Trump en el poder, es muy difícil imaginar eso”
Trump y el nuevo orden global: ¿riesgos para el Mundial 2026 por la tensión con México y Canadá? Milei, Trump y el FMI, ¿cuánto influye EE.UU. en el Fondo? El politólogo hace su análisis
www.lanacion.com.ar
March 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social en una larga entrevista que "El ancla principal de cualquier país democrático en desarrollo es tener una justicia independiente y fuerte. Sin eso, es difícil mantener un sendero de crecimiento y desarrollo”
www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...
www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
March 22, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
Argentina's lower house votes to approve Milei's decree to enter into a new IMF program. The Senate can vote against the decree, but it will not void the decree as both chambers need to vote down the decree.
March 19, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Argentina's lower house votes to approve Milei's decree to enter into a new IMF program. The Senate can vote against the decree, but it will not void the decree as both chambers need to vote down the decree.
"Johannes Kaiser is the novelty, but it is important to mention that he is not just a right-wing candidate. He represents rejection, indignation; he is the candidate of anti-politics, of anger."
www.ex-ante.cl/roberto-izik...
www.ex-ante.cl/roberto-izik...
Izikson: Con Kast, Matthei y Kaiser es probable que la derecha llegue segunda en primera vuelta
El gerente general de Cadem, Roberto Izikson, dice que es un error que el gobierno niegue ser un pato cojo. "Pierde el tiempo en este debate".
www.ex-ante.cl
March 16, 2025 at 2:43 PM
"Johannes Kaiser is the novelty, but it is important to mention that he is not just a right-wing candidate. He represents rejection, indignation; he is the candidate of anti-politics, of anger."
www.ex-ante.cl/roberto-izik...
www.ex-ante.cl/roberto-izik...
Lula has seen his net approval rating crash between December and February, according to the latest IPEC poll. It's now -15%, this is a ditch that looks all but impossible to recover from. Next year's election increasingly looks like the opposition's to lose.
March 15, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Lula has seen his net approval rating crash between December and February, according to the latest IPEC poll. It's now -15%, this is a ditch that looks all but impossible to recover from. Next year's election increasingly looks like the opposition's to lose.
The global shift towards a libertarian right is continuing apace with Johannes Kaiser surging in the polls to contest first place with front-runner from the centre-right Chile Vamos coalition, Evelyn Matthei.
March 7, 2025 at 2:19 PM
The global shift towards a libertarian right is continuing apace with Johannes Kaiser surging in the polls to contest first place with front-runner from the centre-right Chile Vamos coalition, Evelyn Matthei.
Michelle Bachelet bows out of the presidential race. This followed from the resignation of former interior minister, Carolina Tohá. This paves the way for Tohá to become the most likley candidate for the left-wing ticket to succeed Boric
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Michelle Bachelet Closes Door to Third Run for Chile Presidency
Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet said she won’t run for head of state in this year’s election, resisting pressure for her to represent the center-left in a field that’s dominated by oppositi...
www.bloomberg.com
March 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Michelle Bachelet bows out of the presidential race. This followed from the resignation of former interior minister, Carolina Tohá. This paves the way for Tohá to become the most likley candidate for the left-wing ticket to succeed Boric
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
March 5, 2025 at 12:33 AM
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
I told Reuters "Uruguay will be under a lot of pressure from the US to limit Chinese investment in strategic sectors like infrastructure and telecommunications" & the govt will need to "exercise its diplomatic muscle" with the anti-China & protectionist Trump admin.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Uruguay shifts to center-left as Orsi takes office
Orsi, a former mayor backed by leftist ex-President Jose 'Pepe' Mujica, narrowly won the November election.
www.reuters.com
March 2, 2025 at 12:59 PM
I told Reuters "Uruguay will be under a lot of pressure from the US to limit Chinese investment in strategic sectors like infrastructure and telecommunications" & the govt will need to "exercise its diplomatic muscle" with the anti-China & protectionist Trump admin.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
An image that is hard to imagine in most democracies today. The winner of the presidential election in Uruguay, Yamandú Orsi, hugs his opponent, Alvaro Delgado, on the day of Orsi's inauguration.
March 2, 2025 at 12:21 AM
An image that is hard to imagine in most democracies today. The winner of the presidential election in Uruguay, Yamandú Orsi, hugs his opponent, Alvaro Delgado, on the day of Orsi's inauguration.
Dije a @afpfr.bsky.social "Reducir el déficit fiscal es importante para mantener la calificación de grado de inversión de Uruguay controlando el crecimiento de la deuda pública como porcentaje del PIB, que ha crecido desde 2019"
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
Uruguay gira a la izquierda de la mano del delfín de Mujica
Yamandú Orsi, el heredero político de José "Pepe" Mujica, asumirá el sábado como el 43º presidente de Uruguay, en un giro a la izquierda después de cinco años de gobierno de centroderecha y cuando el ...
www.swissinfo.ch
February 28, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Dije a @afpfr.bsky.social "Reducir el déficit fiscal es importante para mantener la calificación de grado de inversión de Uruguay controlando el crecimiento de la deuda pública como porcentaje del PIB, que ha crecido desde 2019"
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
www.swissinfo.ch/spa/uruguay-...
Dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social "los sistemas de partidos a nivel global 'no logran representar adecuadamente las demandas de una población cada vez más polarizada, lo que crea un terreno fértil para el auge del populismo.'"
www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/la-...
www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/la-...
La democracia retrocede en el mundo, según el índice de The Economist: los países que empeoraron y el balance del primer año de Milei
Este descenso refleja una preocupante tendencia global en la que los avances democráticos continúan estancándose o incluso revirtiéndose; la Argentina se mantuvo en la misma posición y hubo nueve camb...
www.lanacion.com.ar
February 27, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Dije a @lanacioncom.bsky.social "los sistemas de partidos a nivel global 'no logran representar adecuadamente las demandas de una población cada vez más polarizada, lo que crea un terreno fértil para el auge del populismo.'"
www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/la-...
www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/la-...
The 2024 Democracy Index by the Economist Intelligence: EIU is out. You can download a copy of the report here: shorturl.at/MFt0t
I am grateful to have contributed to make this report possible, being the lead for Latin America and the Caribbean.
I am grateful to have contributed to make this report possible, being the lead for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Democracy Index 2024
The Democracy Index 2024 provides a detailed analysis of political trends at country, regional and global levels.
shorturl.at
February 27, 2025 at 11:43 PM
The 2024 Democracy Index by the Economist Intelligence: EIU is out. You can download a copy of the report here: shorturl.at/MFt0t
I am grateful to have contributed to make this report possible, being the lead for Latin America and the Caribbean.
I am grateful to have contributed to make this report possible, being the lead for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Monthly economic data indicates an impressive V-shaped economic recovery in Argentina for 2024, accompanied by disinflation. Growth will likely strengthen further when currency controls are lifted this year.
February 26, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Monthly economic data indicates an impressive V-shaped economic recovery in Argentina for 2024, accompanied by disinflation. Growth will likely strengthen further when currency controls are lifted this year.
According to the latest monthly economic activity indicator for December, Argentina's GDP contracted by 1.8%.
This is significantly less than what consensus had expected at 2.7%.
This is a big win for Milei's bet on expansionary austerity.
This is significantly less than what consensus had expected at 2.7%.
This is a big win for Milei's bet on expansionary austerity.
February 25, 2025 at 8:11 PM
According to the latest monthly economic activity indicator for December, Argentina's GDP contracted by 1.8%.
This is significantly less than what consensus had expected at 2.7%.
This is a big win for Milei's bet on expansionary austerity.
This is significantly less than what consensus had expected at 2.7%.
This is a big win for Milei's bet on expansionary austerity.
Reposted by Nico Saldías
Early draft map. I may write more about this tomorrow.
February 24, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Early draft map. I may write more about this tomorrow.
🇷🇺🌐🇺🇦 The UN vote reveals most Latin American gvts are in 4 buckets:
Liberals: 🇨🇱🇬🇹🇲🇽🇵🇪🇺🇾
BRICS multipolar: 🇧🇷🇨🇴🇨🇺🇭🇳
Trump multipolar: 🇦🇷🇨🇷🇸🇻
Pro-Russia: 🇭🇹🇳🇮
Liberals: 🇨🇱🇬🇹🇲🇽🇵🇪🇺🇾
BRICS multipolar: 🇧🇷🇨🇴🇨🇺🇭🇳
Trump multipolar: 🇦🇷🇨🇷🇸🇻
Pro-Russia: 🇭🇹🇳🇮
February 24, 2025 at 10:11 PM
🇷🇺🌐🇺🇦 The UN vote reveals most Latin American gvts are in 4 buckets:
Liberals: 🇨🇱🇬🇹🇲🇽🇵🇪🇺🇾
BRICS multipolar: 🇧🇷🇨🇴🇨🇺🇭🇳
Trump multipolar: 🇦🇷🇨🇷🇸🇻
Pro-Russia: 🇭🇹🇳🇮
Liberals: 🇨🇱🇬🇹🇲🇽🇵🇪🇺🇾
BRICS multipolar: 🇧🇷🇨🇴🇨🇺🇭🇳
Trump multipolar: 🇦🇷🇨🇷🇸🇻
Pro-Russia: 🇭🇹🇳🇮
🇺🇸Trump says he will consider VAT as a tariff & will incorporate it in the reciprocal tariffs, which will hit LATAM hard:
🇺🇾 22%
🇦🇷 21%
🇨🇱 19%
🇨🇴 19%
🇩🇴 18%
🇵🇪 18%
🇭🇳 15%
🇳🇮 15%
🇲🇽 16%
🇧🇴 13%
🇨🇷 13%
🇸🇻 13%
🇪🇨 12%
🇬🇹 12%
🇵🇾 10%
🇵🇦 7%
🇺🇾 22%
🇦🇷 21%
🇨🇱 19%
🇨🇴 19%
🇩🇴 18%
🇵🇪 18%
🇭🇳 15%
🇳🇮 15%
🇲🇽 16%
🇧🇴 13%
🇨🇷 13%
🇸🇻 13%
🇪🇨 12%
🇬🇹 12%
🇵🇾 10%
🇵🇦 7%
February 16, 2025 at 8:42 PM
🇺🇸Trump says he will consider VAT as a tariff & will incorporate it in the reciprocal tariffs, which will hit LATAM hard:
🇺🇾 22%
🇦🇷 21%
🇨🇱 19%
🇨🇴 19%
🇩🇴 18%
🇵🇪 18%
🇭🇳 15%
🇳🇮 15%
🇲🇽 16%
🇧🇴 13%
🇨🇷 13%
🇸🇻 13%
🇪🇨 12%
🇬🇹 12%
🇵🇾 10%
🇵🇦 7%
🇺🇾 22%
🇦🇷 21%
🇨🇱 19%
🇨🇴 19%
🇩🇴 18%
🇵🇪 18%
🇭🇳 15%
🇳🇮 15%
🇲🇽 16%
🇧🇴 13%
🇨🇷 13%
🇸🇻 13%
🇪🇨 12%
🇬🇹 12%
🇵🇾 10%
🇵🇦 7%
🇨🇱Interesting poll in Chile about the views & voting intension of immigrants.
*⃣59% say they will vote for a right-wing candidate (Matthei, Kast or Kaiser)
*⃣Disapproval of Boric's government is much higher than the average at 75%
www.ex-ante.cl/panel-ciudad...
*⃣59% say they will vote for a right-wing candidate (Matthei, Kast or Kaiser)
*⃣Disapproval of Boric's government is much higher than the average at 75%
www.ex-ante.cl/panel-ciudad...
Panel Ciudadano-UDD: 59% de extranjeros apoyan a Matthei, Kast y Kaiser y solo 22% a izquierda
En medio del debate por las indicaciones del Gobierno a un proyecto de ley para dejar a los extranjeros que sufragan en Chile solo con el derecho a votar en las elecciones municipales, pero no así en ...
www.ex-ante.cl
February 9, 2025 at 5:48 PM
🇨🇱Interesting poll in Chile about the views & voting intension of immigrants.
*⃣59% say they will vote for a right-wing candidate (Matthei, Kast or Kaiser)
*⃣Disapproval of Boric's government is much higher than the average at 75%
www.ex-ante.cl/panel-ciudad...
*⃣59% say they will vote for a right-wing candidate (Matthei, Kast or Kaiser)
*⃣Disapproval of Boric's government is much higher than the average at 75%
www.ex-ante.cl/panel-ciudad...
According to the latest Cadem poll, half of Chileans have a favourable opinion of Trump. Why? A reason seems to be an overwhelming majority of Chileans agree with Trump's policies clamping down on undocumented migration & militarization of the border.
January 27, 2025 at 7:20 PM
According to the latest Cadem poll, half of Chileans have a favourable opinion of Trump. Why? A reason seems to be an overwhelming majority of Chileans agree with Trump's policies clamping down on undocumented migration & militarization of the border.