Nicole Grajewski
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
Fellow with Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program and Associate with Harvard’s Managing the Atom | PhD from Oxford | working on nuclear issues involving Russia and Iran | author of Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine (OUP/Hurst)
Anyone know the best way to ship books from the US to Europe? Or any good storage places in DC? All the google results look like spam.
Alternatively if anyone in DC wants the public papers of Clinton and Reagan, let me know.
Alternatively if anyone in DC wants the public papers of Clinton and Reagan, let me know.
November 9, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Anyone know the best way to ship books from the US to Europe? Or any good storage places in DC? All the google results look like spam.
Alternatively if anyone in DC wants the public papers of Clinton and Reagan, let me know.
Alternatively if anyone in DC wants the public papers of Clinton and Reagan, let me know.
First post in the rebrand of my Substack from the very bland title of Russia and Iran to Axes and Atoms —a nod to every axis that Russia and Iran have been cast into, and a space to examine the military and nuclear dynamics that shape both countries. axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
November 8, 2025 at 5:00 PM
First post in the rebrand of my Substack from the very bland title of Russia and Iran to Axes and Atoms —a nod to every axis that Russia and Iran have been cast into, and a space to examine the military and nuclear dynamics that shape both countries. axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
November 8, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
We know little about Poseidon beyond the leaked presentation aired on Russian television. Yet, given previous Soviet interest, Poseidon represents less a technical revolution than a persistence of concept. IMO it also has the most interesting history out of the novel weapons.
October 29, 2025 at 11:15 PM
We know little about Poseidon beyond the leaked presentation aired on Russian television. Yet, given previous Soviet interest, Poseidon represents less a technical revolution than a persistence of concept. IMO it also has the most interesting history out of the novel weapons.
One scientist proposed that a tsunami-type wave from a 100-megaton underwater explosion could devastate portions of the U.S. coastline. Khrushchev ordered a study on its potential.
October 29, 2025 at 11:15 PM
One scientist proposed that a tsunami-type wave from a 100-megaton underwater explosion could devastate portions of the U.S. coastline. Khrushchev ordered a study on its potential.
When the Navy finally reviewed it, naval engineers concluded that to launch the T-15, a submarine would have to approach within 40 km of defended coasts, surface for orientation, and expose itself to immediate destruction. The concept was dropped.
October 29, 2025 at 11:15 PM
When the Navy finally reviewed it, naval engineers concluded that to launch the T-15, a submarine would have to approach within 40 km of defended coasts, surface for orientation, and expose itself to immediate destruction. The concept was dropped.
The T-15 concept was paired with the USSR’s first nuclear-powered submarine, Project 627. The torpedo measured roughly 23m in length, used an electric motor with an approx 30 km range, and carried a multi-megaton warhead. The project advanced without the Navy’s knowledge.
October 29, 2025 at 11:15 PM
The T-15 concept was paired with the USSR’s first nuclear-powered submarine, Project 627. The torpedo measured roughly 23m in length, used an electric motor with an approx 30 km range, and carried a multi-megaton warhead. The project advanced without the Navy’s knowledge.
From a 2015 report: a long horizontal cutaway of the Poseidon shows 1) acoustic/sonar/navigation sensors; 2) combat/warhead module; 3) instrumentation/control electronics; 4) compact nuclear reactor; 5) steam-turbine
October 29, 2025 at 2:58 PM
From a 2015 report: a long horizontal cutaway of the Poseidon shows 1) acoustic/sonar/navigation sensors; 2) combat/warhead module; 3) instrumentation/control electronics; 4) compact nuclear reactor; 5) steam-turbine
Joint letter from Russia, China, and Iran claims that the “termination” of UNSCR 2231’s provisions “marks the end of the Security Council’s consideration of the Iranian nuclear issue”
October 18, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Joint letter from Russia, China, and Iran claims that the “termination” of UNSCR 2231’s provisions “marks the end of the Security Council’s consideration of the Iranian nuclear issue”
Iranian entities under UNSC sanctions
September 28, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Iranian entities under UNSC sanctions
More context
September 26, 2025 at 8:14 PM
More context
The full budget and details have not been finalized/are purposefully vague. Note that Iran’s total 2024 defense spending was estimated to be ~7.9B by SPIRI. If Iran is heading toward conventional reconstitution, that number will need to be much larger.
September 11, 2025 at 11:25 AM
The full budget and details have not been finalized/are purposefully vague. Note that Iran’s total 2024 defense spending was estimated to be ~7.9B by SPIRI. If Iran is heading toward conventional reconstitution, that number will need to be much larger.
Iran's membership in the SCO would not be impacted if UN sanctions are reimposed, as this provision only applies to prospective members, not existing ones like Iran.
"A state that wishes to join…should have no sanctions imposed on it by the United Nations Security Council."
"A state that wishes to join…should have no sanctions imposed on it by the United Nations Security Council."
September 1, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Iran's membership in the SCO would not be impacted if UN sanctions are reimposed, as this provision only applies to prospective members, not existing ones like Iran.
"A state that wishes to join…should have no sanctions imposed on it by the United Nations Security Council."
"A state that wishes to join…should have no sanctions imposed on it by the United Nations Security Council."
Text of the Russian resolution on extending UNSCR 2231
August 28, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Text of the Russian resolution on extending UNSCR 2231
Iranian MFA statement: The E3 “have neither the legal authority nor moral standing to invoke the so-called snapback.” Their effort to trigger snapback is “null, invalid, and devoid of any legal effect.”
August 28, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Iranian MFA statement: The E3 “have neither the legal authority nor moral standing to invoke the so-called snapback.” Their effort to trigger snapback is “null, invalid, and devoid of any legal effect.”
Iran's retaliation will likely be a series of threats about NPT withdrawal and curtailed cooperation with the IAEA, Laurence had a pretty good prediction here
August 28, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Iran's retaliation will likely be a series of threats about NPT withdrawal and curtailed cooperation with the IAEA, Laurence had a pretty good prediction here
If diplomacy fails, the sanctions that return are extensive: a conventional arms embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel bans, and a ban on producing nuclear-related technology.
August 28, 2025 at 4:20 PM
If diplomacy fails, the sanctions that return are extensive: a conventional arms embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel bans, and a ban on producing nuclear-related technology.
The word "snapback" never appears in UNSCR 2231, but it was crafted as a safeguard (against RU/PRC veto). If Iran was judged in "significant non-performance," all pre-deal UN sanctions would be reimposed within 30 days unless the UNSC voted to keep sanctions relief in place.
August 28, 2025 at 4:20 PM
The word "snapback" never appears in UNSCR 2231, but it was crafted as a safeguard (against RU/PRC veto). If Iran was judged in "significant non-performance," all pre-deal UN sanctions would be reimposed within 30 days unless the UNSC voted to keep sanctions relief in place.
Me on Iran and the IAEA a few days ago carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
July 2, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Me on Iran and the IAEA a few days ago carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Old video of Khamenei: After 9/11, America’s top officials vanished for days. No sign of the president, VP, or key leaders. We are not like this. If a crisis comes to our nation, we’ll be on the frontlines—with the people, in battle dress, ready to sacrifice. We do not hide.
June 27, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Old video of Khamenei: After 9/11, America’s top officials vanished for days. No sign of the president, VP, or key leaders. We are not like this. If a crisis comes to our nation, we’ll be on the frontlines—with the people, in battle dress, ready to sacrifice. We do not hide.
نتانیاهو خواستار تخلیه تهران شد:
نخستوزیر اسرائیل در اظهاراتی هشدارآمیز، خواستار خروج فوری شهروندان از تهران شد و احتمال اقدام نظامی را مطرح کرد.
نخستوزیر اسرائیل در اظهاراتی هشدارآمیز، خواستار خروج فوری شهروندان از تهران شد و احتمال اقدام نظامی را مطرح کرد.
June 16, 2025 at 1:05 PM
نتانیاهو خواستار تخلیه تهران شد:
نخستوزیر اسرائیل در اظهاراتی هشدارآمیز، خواستار خروج فوری شهروندان از تهران شد و احتمال اقدام نظامی را مطرح کرد.
نخستوزیر اسرائیل در اظهاراتی هشدارآمیز، خواستار خروج فوری شهروندان از تهران شد و احتمال اقدام نظامی را مطرح کرد.
Front pages of Iranian newspapers June 15, 2025
June 15, 2025 at 2:25 AM
Front pages of Iranian newspapers June 15, 2025
Guess I have to delete these slides from my Iran missile presentation
June 13, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Guess I have to delete these slides from my Iran missile presentation
Along with Iranian nuclear scientists, two major figures in Iran’s military command —
Hossein Salami, head of the IRGC, and Gholam Rashid, commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters — were allegedly assassinated.
Hossein Salami, head of the IRGC, and Gholam Rashid, commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters — were allegedly assassinated.
June 13, 2025 at 2:02 AM
Along with Iranian nuclear scientists, two major figures in Iran’s military command —
Hossein Salami, head of the IRGC, and Gholam Rashid, commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters — were allegedly assassinated.
Hossein Salami, head of the IRGC, and Gholam Rashid, commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters — were allegedly assassinated.
Also Kashan - posting a screenshot here of the significance because things are moving too quickly
June 13, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Also Kashan - posting a screenshot here of the significance because things are moving too quickly