I show that current Democratic positions on the environment, which are heavily cultural, deter less-educated voters. In contrast, an equally progressive policy with a stronger economic focus, like a 'Green New Deal,' would attract more support from these voters.
18/N

In the final section of the paper, I use the model to examine how parties' cultural polarization shapes voter support for environmental policy. I show that Democratic candidates' environmental stances are largely cultural, while Republicans emphasize economic dimensions more.
17/N

I show that parties' polarization on cultural issues has been a key driver of realignment, leading Democratic candidates to lose less-educated voters and attract more-educated ones. This cultural polarization has been only slightly offset by moderate economic polarization.
15/N

A key challenge is that candidates choose their positions partly based on unobserved voter preferences. To isolate causal effects, I compare contiguous precincts across district borders, with precincts sharing a similar taste shock but facing candidates with different positions.
10/N

Tracking the evolution of candidate positions over time reveals that polarization on cultural issues has become twice as pronounced as on economic issues.
8/N

Step 2: To measure House candidate positioning since 2000, I build a multimodal text-and-survey model, combining candidate website and survey data to determine their stances on cultural and economic dimensions.
7/N

I also show that this trend didn’t start in 2016; rather, there has been a gradual increase in the correlation between education and Democratic voting over time.
6/N

I show that realignment along educational lines has outpaced shifts along other demographic dimensions, such as income or race and ethnicity.
5/N

Step 1: To precisely track voting patterns, I build a new panel dataset of precinct-level election results since 2000, capturing changes at a very granular level (~1,000 voters per precinct, totaling 1.6 million precinct results).
4/N

Why are blue-collar voters drifting from the Democratic Party? Is it due to shifts in voter preferences or shifts in party positions? What role do cultural versus economic policies play? My Job Market Paper presents an empirical model that unpacks these dynamics.
1/N