Nick Ridpath
@nickridpath.bsky.social
Research Economist at the IFS
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
One reading of this remark is that the fiscal rule requiring debt to be falling as a share of GDP in 2029/30 is now the one that binds (as cuts to capital spending wouldn't help to meet her borrowing rule). That's entirely possible - and was what we predicted in the IFS Green Budget, as it happens.
Rachel Reeves lets the cat out of the (already threadbare) bag about the looming break to the manifesto:
“It would of course be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending.”
www.ft.com/content/a502...
“It would of course be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending.”
www.ft.com/content/a502...
Rachel Reeves signals she will break manifesto pledge with Budget tax rises
Chancellor hopes to win support from Labour MPs by lifting two-child benefit cap
www.ft.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:24 PM
One reading of this remark is that the fiscal rule requiring debt to be falling as a share of GDP in 2029/30 is now the one that binds (as cuts to capital spending wouldn't help to meet her borrowing rule). That's entirely possible - and was what we predicted in the IFS Green Budget, as it happens.
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
If there's one key message for the Chancellor from our analysis published today, it's this:
Doing a bigger package to increase ‘headroom’ wouldn’t be costless – but nor is limping from one forecast to the next under constant speculation that policy will be tightened again.
Doing a bigger package to increase ‘headroom’ wouldn’t be costless – but nor is limping from one forecast to the next under constant speculation that policy will be tightened again.
NEW: The Chancellor almost certainly has a fiscal repair job on her hands at next month’s Budget.
But doing the bare minimum risks another fiscal groundhog day next year.
🧵 THREAD on our new IFS Green Budget's findings on the UK's economic outlook and fiscal situation:
But doing the bare minimum risks another fiscal groundhog day next year.
🧵 THREAD on our new IFS Green Budget's findings on the UK's economic outlook and fiscal situation:
October 16, 2025 at 12:12 PM
If there's one key message for the Chancellor from our analysis published today, it's this:
Doing a bigger package to increase ‘headroom’ wouldn’t be costless – but nor is limping from one forecast to the next under constant speculation that policy will be tightened again.
Doing a bigger package to increase ‘headroom’ wouldn’t be costless – but nor is limping from one forecast to the next under constant speculation that policy will be tightened again.
With a fiscal “groundhog day” of discussions about how the Chancellor could keep meeting her fiscal rules for the second time this year, we were wondering: what are the chances we could be doing all this again in Spring? The answer: pretty high. Particularly nerdy thread:
October 16, 2025 at 6:54 AM
With a fiscal “groundhog day” of discussions about how the Chancellor could keep meeting her fiscal rules for the second time this year, we were wondering: what are the chances we could be doing all this again in Spring? The answer: pretty high. Particularly nerdy thread:
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
At the end of parliament, health funding will be more than 50% higher than in 2010.
Spending on justice, in contrast, will be lower in 2028–29 than two decades earlier despite recent increases. Spending on overseas aid and culture, media & sport will also be lower than in 2010.
Spending on justice, in contrast, will be lower in 2028–29 than two decades earlier despite recent increases. Spending on overseas aid and culture, media & sport will also be lower than in 2010.
June 12, 2025 at 9:55 AM
At the end of parliament, health funding will be more than 50% higher than in 2010.
Spending on justice, in contrast, will be lower in 2028–29 than two decades earlier despite recent increases. Spending on overseas aid and culture, media & sport will also be lower than in 2010.
Spending on justice, in contrast, will be lower in 2028–29 than two decades earlier despite recent increases. Spending on overseas aid and culture, media & sport will also be lower than in 2010.
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
Average annual real growth in total departmental spending over this parliament is set to be 2.3%.
This is below the previous parliament’s average of 3.6%, but higher than the last government had outlined.
@beeboileau.bsky.social on the big picture choices in the Spending Review:
This is below the previous parliament’s average of 3.6%, but higher than the last government had outlined.
@beeboileau.bsky.social on the big picture choices in the Spending Review:
June 12, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Average annual real growth in total departmental spending over this parliament is set to be 2.3%.
This is below the previous parliament’s average of 3.6%, but higher than the last government had outlined.
@beeboileau.bsky.social on the big picture choices in the Spending Review:
This is below the previous parliament’s average of 3.6%, but higher than the last government had outlined.
@beeboileau.bsky.social on the big picture choices in the Spending Review:
Our new Sure Start overview report out today includes a cost-benefit analysis.
These estimates are uncertain (many of the likely benefits haven’t happened yet!) but suggest Sure Start may go 90% of the way to ‘paying for itself’, with additional long-run benefits for children as they grow up
These estimates are uncertain (many of the likely benefits haven’t happened yet!) but suggest Sure Start may go 90% of the way to ‘paying for itself’, with additional long-run benefits for children as they grow up
At its peak, Sure Start cost around £2.7bn per year (in today's prices).
We estimate that over the long run, it might generate £2.4bn in savings for government per cohort.
Including wider benefits like higher earnings, total long-run benefits could be twice the cost.
[10/11]
We estimate that over the long run, it might generate £2.4bn in savings for government per cohort.
Including wider benefits like higher earnings, total long-run benefits could be twice the cost.
[10/11]
May 22, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Our new Sure Start overview report out today includes a cost-benefit analysis.
These estimates are uncertain (many of the likely benefits haven’t happened yet!) but suggest Sure Start may go 90% of the way to ‘paying for itself’, with additional long-run benefits for children as they grow up
These estimates are uncertain (many of the likely benefits haven’t happened yet!) but suggest Sure Start may go 90% of the way to ‘paying for itself’, with additional long-run benefits for children as they grow up
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
We've built a new IFS tool which can be used to explore what the government spends money on, and where in the UK benefits from that spending. Here it is: ifs.org.uk/calculators/.... Short thread on what you can do with the tool:
April 10, 2025 at 8:42 AM
We've built a new IFS tool which can be used to explore what the government spends money on, and where in the UK benefits from that spending. Here it is: ifs.org.uk/calculators/.... Short thread on what you can do with the tool:
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
OBR productivity growth forecasts have historically been over-optimistic.
They remain above the productivity growth rates seen since 2008 – a downgrade to the OBR's forecast could cause a real fiscal headache for the Chancellor.
They remain above the productivity growth rates seen since 2008 – a downgrade to the OBR's forecast could cause a real fiscal headache for the Chancellor.
March 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM
OBR productivity growth forecasts have historically been over-optimistic.
They remain above the productivity growth rates seen since 2008 – a downgrade to the OBR's forecast could cause a real fiscal headache for the Chancellor.
They remain above the productivity growth rates seen since 2008 – a downgrade to the OBR's forecast could cause a real fiscal headache for the Chancellor.
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget.
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
March 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM
NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget.
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required?
[THREAD]
New evidence out on the EMA today.
We find that while it did keep more students in full-time education, this didn't pass through to better quals or earnings later in life - in fact, reduced links to the labour market may have even reduced earnings.
Have a read of the thread below and the report 👇
We find that while it did keep more students in full-time education, this didn't pass through to better quals or earnings later in life - in fact, reduced links to the labour market may have even reduced earnings.
Have a read of the thread below and the report 👇
NEW: The Education Maintenance Allowance, a weekly cash transfer to disadvantaged students aged 16-19, did not improve their long-run outcomes.
The EMA only provided around 40p of benefits to students for every £1 spent.
THREAD on our new @nuffieldfoundation.org-funded report:
[1/10]
The EMA only provided around 40p of benefits to students for every £1 spent.
THREAD on our new @nuffieldfoundation.org-funded report:
[1/10]
February 26, 2025 at 9:14 AM
New evidence out on the EMA today.
We find that while it did keep more students in full-time education, this didn't pass through to better quals or earnings later in life - in fact, reduced links to the labour market may have even reduced earnings.
Have a read of the thread below and the report 👇
We find that while it did keep more students in full-time education, this didn't pass through to better quals or earnings later in life - in fact, reduced links to the labour market may have even reduced earnings.
Have a read of the thread below and the report 👇