Regardless of development of not, an extreme rainfall event is likely for the southern Malay Peninsula (inc Singapore) in the coming 3-4 days.

The ECWMF EFI for precipitation between Wednesday and Saturday >0.9, and the Shift of Tails (how extreme is the extreme) is >3 (compared to March climate).

📌

You're welcome. Most UV level forecasts that you get through websites and apps only assume a constant value of ozone (the climate average), and adjust UV per forecast cloud cover.

But in reality UV can be a little different owing to fluctuations in ozone too.

Such terrible news. 😢

All the best to all NWS / NOAA employees past and present from the other side of the pond. We appreciate all you do.

I got the feeling the scientists were not happy / sure it was the correct route, but the pressure came from elsewhere.

They are still producing the plots, and offered me a weekly email update service (via work), which I've taken them up on.

I gave them feedback about the usefulness of the plots.

I got in touch with BoM about the reduction of information.

Their success at messaging ENSO and IOD typical impacts (in recent decades), meant they were finding that media and people were using the status as both to make a crude seasonal forecast, and the actual seasonal forecast was overlooked.

Thank you @kerriedoodles.bsky.social.

I know they are usually seen at temperatures < -20°C, from ice cloud / fog at the surface. In this case the only <- 20 temps were many km up!

My main regret is having no tripod as it was half an hour into walking the dog when I noticed them. 😄

These are formed when ground based light sources are reflected by ice crystals (in this case in high cloud) between the observer (me) and the light sources (unknown).

Amazing to see, shame I was walking the dog and could only shoot handheld with my phone's camera.

Any thoughts or ideas?

Fantastic work Bruce, it's great to see the table and the rankings. 👏

Do you think the missing obs were linked to power failure in the event? Even if the stations have backups (so the data is not lost), I know a number of them use the mobile network to transmit data.

This could be the equivalent of a 1987 magnitude event for western parts of Ireland.

But nothing like that for England, Wales and Scotland (where high winds gusts are now common).

Agreed, I analyse the majority of the rapid dependers in the North Atlantic as having some Shapiro Keyser characteristics.

I find it a spectrum, some are S-K / Norwegian hybrids, posessing elements of both models at various points in their development.

The next low following Eowyn goes through its main deepening stage in the mid-Atlantic.

So it will be nowhere near as potent when it reaches Ireland at the weekend. But winds likely strong enough to hinder recovery efforts.

Unfortunately the first low pressure is now named Storm Eowyn.

Pretty significant impacts (lots of power outages) look likely for Ireland and parts of the UK.

Thanks Paul for all you've done in recent years.

I enjoyed your forecasts and sorry discussions whenever they were issued, but fully understand the rationale behind the decision.

I think there is a good chance of several named storms (when including Ireland), although still a small chance the worst of all could just about miss to the northwest. 🤞

Welcome to Bluesky Helen. I really enjoyed following you on Twitter before I left the platform last year.

Looking forward to seeing your amazing creativity here too!

The area shaded in darker blue / purple in the left hand image, indicates the extent of the very unusual / extreme cold around the nadir of the event on Tuesday 21 January 2025.