Nick Silkstone
@nick-silkstone.bsky.social
I spend as much time as possible outdoors, running, SUPing, cycling, walking and gardening. Occasional bit of photography. Operational Meteorologist at the Met Office (UK). All opinions my own.
A great #noctilucent #cloud display across Europe and the UK tonight (including Devon)
These clouds are above 250,000 FT high (a commercial aircraft flies around 35,000 FT for reference) and are most commonly seen in mid-latitudes in mid-summer.
#meteorology
These clouds are above 250,000 FT high (a commercial aircraft flies around 35,000 FT for reference) and are most commonly seen in mid-latitudes in mid-summer.
#meteorology
June 29, 2025 at 10:21 PM
A great #noctilucent #cloud display across Europe and the UK tonight (including Devon)
These clouds are above 250,000 FT high (a commercial aircraft flies around 35,000 FT for reference) and are most commonly seen in mid-latitudes in mid-summer.
#meteorology
These clouds are above 250,000 FT high (a commercial aircraft flies around 35,000 FT for reference) and are most commonly seen in mid-latitudes in mid-summer.
#meteorology
Keeping up with the potential tropical depression / storm development between the Malay Peninsula / Borneo.
A satellite derived surface wind field (from 19/16:30 UTC) suggests it's close to being a tropical depression at 0 deg.
Slightly inconclusive on the east side of the circulation for now.
A satellite derived surface wind field (from 19/16:30 UTC) suggests it's close to being a tropical depression at 0 deg.
Slightly inconclusive on the east side of the circulation for now.
March 19, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Keeping up with the potential tropical depression / storm development between the Malay Peninsula / Borneo.
A satellite derived surface wind field (from 19/16:30 UTC) suggests it's close to being a tropical depression at 0 deg.
Slightly inconclusive on the east side of the circulation for now.
A satellite derived surface wind field (from 19/16:30 UTC) suggests it's close to being a tropical depression at 0 deg.
Slightly inconclusive on the east side of the circulation for now.
Regardless of development of not, an extreme rainfall event is likely for the southern Malay Peninsula (inc Singapore) in the coming 3-4 days.
The ECWMF EFI for precipitation between Wednesday and Saturday >0.9, and the Shift of Tails (how extreme is the extreme) is >3 (compared to March climate).
The ECWMF EFI for precipitation between Wednesday and Saturday >0.9, and the Shift of Tails (how extreme is the extreme) is >3 (compared to March climate).
March 18, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Regardless of development of not, an extreme rainfall event is likely for the southern Malay Peninsula (inc Singapore) in the coming 3-4 days.
The ECWMF EFI for precipitation between Wednesday and Saturday >0.9, and the Shift of Tails (how extreme is the extreme) is >3 (compared to March climate).
The ECWMF EFI for precipitation between Wednesday and Saturday >0.9, and the Shift of Tails (how extreme is the extreme) is >3 (compared to March climate).
The GFS model remains keen on generating a tropical depression between the Malay Peninsula and Borneo at <2 deg of latitude.
This last occurred in 2004 when Vamei reached tropical storm / typhoon strength (disputed), such events are estimated to have a 100-400 year return period.
Interesting to 👀
This last occurred in 2004 when Vamei reached tropical storm / typhoon strength (disputed), such events are estimated to have a 100-400 year return period.
Interesting to 👀
March 18, 2025 at 8:59 AM
The GFS model remains keen on generating a tropical depression between the Malay Peninsula and Borneo at <2 deg of latitude.
This last occurred in 2004 when Vamei reached tropical storm / typhoon strength (disputed), such events are estimated to have a 100-400 year return period.
Interesting to 👀
This last occurred in 2004 when Vamei reached tropical storm / typhoon strength (disputed), such events are estimated to have a 100-400 year return period.
Interesting to 👀
Unusually low column ozone and clear skies over the UK again today (Sunday), see ozone anomaly forecast below.
UV levels will be higher than normal for the time off year. I got a little sunburn yesterday, so will take the suncream out today.
Enjoy! ☀️
UV levels will be higher than normal for the time off year. I got a little sunburn yesterday, so will take the suncream out today.
Enjoy! ☀️
March 2, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Unusually low column ozone and clear skies over the UK again today (Sunday), see ozone anomaly forecast below.
UV levels will be higher than normal for the time off year. I got a little sunburn yesterday, so will take the suncream out today.
Enjoy! ☀️
UV levels will be higher than normal for the time off year. I got a little sunburn yesterday, so will take the suncream out today.
Enjoy! ☀️
It looks like I saw the optical phenomenon of light pillars at 20:00 UTC 29 Jan 2025 in Devon, UK this evening.
Vertical pillars of white light that really stood out in the sky for brightness and dead straightness of the lines.
Vertical pillars of white light that really stood out in the sky for brightness and dead straightness of the lines.
January 29, 2025 at 9:36 PM
It looks like I saw the optical phenomenon of light pillars at 20:00 UTC 29 Jan 2025 in Devon, UK this evening.
Vertical pillars of white light that really stood out in the sky for brightness and dead straightness of the lines.
Vertical pillars of white light that really stood out in the sky for brightness and dead straightness of the lines.
#Meteorology makes such a difference to where aeroplanes fly. ✈️
Here a strong W'ly jet stream across the mid-Atlantic (linked to #StormEowyn) causes all the traffic from Europe going to North America to head well to the north.
Whereas the traffic the other way enjoys a jet assisted ride back! 💨
Here a strong W'ly jet stream across the mid-Atlantic (linked to #StormEowyn) causes all the traffic from Europe going to North America to head well to the north.
Whereas the traffic the other way enjoys a jet assisted ride back! 💨
January 23, 2025 at 12:37 PM
#Meteorology makes such a difference to where aeroplanes fly. ✈️
Here a strong W'ly jet stream across the mid-Atlantic (linked to #StormEowyn) causes all the traffic from Europe going to North America to head well to the north.
Whereas the traffic the other way enjoys a jet assisted ride back! 💨
Here a strong W'ly jet stream across the mid-Atlantic (linked to #StormEowyn) causes all the traffic from Europe going to North America to head well to the north.
Whereas the traffic the other way enjoys a jet assisted ride back! 💨
A jet-stream fired up by the current North American coldwave will lead to a phenomenon known as a "Cyclone Family" in the North Atlantic.
Multiple deep low pressure areas develop and take a similar track late January (close to the British Isles)
More info: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Multiple deep low pressure areas develop and take a similar track late January (close to the British Isles)
More info: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
January 20, 2025 at 9:07 PM
A jet-stream fired up by the current North American coldwave will lead to a phenomenon known as a "Cyclone Family" in the North Atlantic.
Multiple deep low pressure areas develop and take a similar track late January (close to the British Isles)
More info: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Multiple deep low pressure areas develop and take a similar track late January (close to the British Isles)
More info: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The area shaded in darker blue / purple in the left hand image, indicates the extent of the very unusual / extreme cold around the nadir of the event on Tuesday 21 January 2025.
January 14, 2025 at 10:37 PM
The area shaded in darker blue / purple in the left hand image, indicates the extent of the very unusual / extreme cold around the nadir of the event on Tuesday 21 January 2025.
A #coldwave is forecast for the central US from the weekend into the middle of next week.
Extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Mexico.
ECMWF forecasts suggest maximum temperatures for Austin, Texas, may be more than 20 C (36 F) below normal early next week.
Extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Mexico.
ECMWF forecasts suggest maximum temperatures for Austin, Texas, may be more than 20 C (36 F) below normal early next week.
January 14, 2025 at 10:33 PM
A #coldwave is forecast for the central US from the weekend into the middle of next week.
Extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Mexico.
ECMWF forecasts suggest maximum temperatures for Austin, Texas, may be more than 20 C (36 F) below normal early next week.
Extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Mexico.
ECMWF forecasts suggest maximum temperatures for Austin, Texas, may be more than 20 C (36 F) below normal early next week.
Snow didn't settle in Exeter this week, so I popped up to #Dartmoor to get me #snow fix before it all melted.
I drove to South Zeal, about 25 mins from Exeter, and walked up Cosdon Beacon (550 m) with Ollie 🐾
About 10-15cm, deep drifts, and rime on vegetation above 450m. A top afternoon out!
I drove to South Zeal, about 25 mins from Exeter, and walked up Cosdon Beacon (550 m) with Ollie 🐾
About 10-15cm, deep drifts, and rime on vegetation above 450m. A top afternoon out!
January 9, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Loving geography so much, I came across these gift cards in Totnes a few years back using playing cards from the 1920s Jacques card game "The Countries of England" collections.vam.ac.uk/item/O26764/...
I've framed up two from the area I grew up. A lovely vintage piece of art. 😄
I've framed up two from the area I grew up. A lovely vintage piece of art. 😄
January 5, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Loving geography so much, I came across these gift cards in Totnes a few years back using playing cards from the 1920s Jacques card game "The Countries of England" collections.vam.ac.uk/item/O26764/...
I've framed up two from the area I grew up. A lovely vintage piece of art. 😄
I've framed up two from the area I grew up. A lovely vintage piece of art. 😄
With programmes on #BBC #Radio4 celebrating the centenary of the #ShippingForecast today.
I thought I'd reshare the shipping forecast themed map I produced from the #30DayMapChallenge back in November.
I thought I'd reshare the shipping forecast themed map I produced from the #30DayMapChallenge back in November.
January 1, 2025 at 12:05 PM
With programmes on #BBC #Radio4 celebrating the centenary of the #ShippingForecast today.
I thought I'd reshare the shipping forecast themed map I produced from the #30DayMapChallenge back in November.
I thought I'd reshare the shipping forecast themed map I produced from the #30DayMapChallenge back in November.
Hi Al, It's available via CEDA as .CSV data (works in excel) in annual blocks back to 1961 (a bit fiddly to find)
You have to register / login, but it's free and open data.
Let me know if any problems. 🙂
data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-mi...
You have to register / login, but it's free and open data.
Let me know if any problems. 🙂
data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-mi...
December 31, 2024 at 4:56 PM
Hi Al, It's available via CEDA as .CSV data (works in excel) in annual blocks back to 1961 (a bit fiddly to find)
You have to register / login, but it's free and open data.
Let me know if any problems. 🙂
data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-mi...
You have to register / login, but it's free and open data.
Let me know if any problems. 🙂
data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-mi...
Confidence is now high for cold weather across parts of Western / Northwestern Europe in early January 2025.
Here is a look at the forecast broad regime through the start of the period, and meteogram for London showing the forecast max / min.
Compared to recent weeks, it will be notably #cold!
Here is a look at the forecast broad regime through the start of the period, and meteogram for London showing the forecast max / min.
Compared to recent weeks, it will be notably #cold!
December 28, 2024 at 3:30 PM
Confidence is now high for cold weather across parts of Western / Northwestern Europe in early January 2025.
Here is a look at the forecast broad regime through the start of the period, and meteogram for London showing the forecast max / min.
Compared to recent weeks, it will be notably #cold!
Here is a look at the forecast broad regime through the start of the period, and meteogram for London showing the forecast max / min.
Compared to recent weeks, it will be notably #cold!
We noticed this little development too, and noted a very low coupling index from Alicia Bentley's GFS plots.
December 19, 2024 at 8:27 PM
We noticed this little development too, and noted a very low coupling index from Alicia Bentley's GFS plots.
Yes, QField for Android as my survey tool (creating a custom input form). And then QGIS to edit.
All free and open source. 😁
All free and open source. 😁
December 12, 2024 at 1:05 PM
Yes, QField for Android as my survey tool (creating a custom input form). And then QGIS to edit.
All free and open source. 😁
All free and open source. 😁
Across a few days dog walks on my regular routes I've surveyed the damage in my local area from #StormDarragh
Mainly tree damage with a few large trees toppled, and plenty of branches / limbs brought down (>3 m in length my criteria for inclusion).
A nice reference to future strong wind events.
Mainly tree damage with a few large trees toppled, and plenty of branches / limbs brought down (>3 m in length my criteria for inclusion).
A nice reference to future strong wind events.
December 12, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Across a few days dog walks on my regular routes I've surveyed the damage in my local area from #StormDarragh
Mainly tree damage with a few large trees toppled, and plenty of branches / limbs brought down (>3 m in length my criteria for inclusion).
A nice reference to future strong wind events.
Mainly tree damage with a few large trees toppled, and plenty of branches / limbs brought down (>3 m in length my criteria for inclusion).
A nice reference to future strong wind events.
4/ Finally, I'm looking for a wind maximum behind the fractured / weak surface cold front, this is associated with drying / descending air at the tip of the Cold Conveyor Belt (CCB). I think I've just about captured that occurring in ICON here looking at 850hPa.
December 5, 2024 at 10:08 PM
4/ Finally, I'm looking for a wind maximum behind the fractured / weak surface cold front, this is associated with drying / descending air at the tip of the Cold Conveyor Belt (CCB). I think I've just about captured that occurring in ICON here looking at 850hPa.
3/ Next is the warm seclusion (an SK hallmark), using FSU Phase diagrams, in this case the UKMO solution shows some shallow warm core (becoming asymmetric) as the low moves into Ireland.
The blue area is where a "standard" mid-latitude low lives.
The blue area is where a "standard" mid-latitude low lives.
December 5, 2024 at 10:08 PM
3/ Next is the warm seclusion (an SK hallmark), using FSU Phase diagrams, in this case the UKMO solution shows some shallow warm core (becoming asymmetric) as the low moves into Ireland.
The blue area is where a "standard" mid-latitude low lives.
The blue area is where a "standard" mid-latitude low lives.
2/ The ECMWF simulated Water Vapour satellite image at the same time shows a dry intrusion across SW Ireland, just to the rear of the surface cold front. This is a dry intrusion close to the right spot.
December 5, 2024 at 10:08 PM
2/ The ECMWF simulated Water Vapour satellite image at the same time shows a dry intrusion across SW Ireland, just to the rear of the surface cold front. This is a dry intrusion close to the right spot.
Sting Jet in #StormDarragh? #Technical
1/ Sting jets are most commonly found in Shapiro-Keyser cyclones
These cyclones tend to be marked by a frontal fracture, meaning the cold front is very weak. UKV fields (dewpoint digits) on Friday evening analysed cold front is indeed very weak / fractured.
1/ Sting jets are most commonly found in Shapiro-Keyser cyclones
These cyclones tend to be marked by a frontal fracture, meaning the cold front is very weak. UKV fields (dewpoint digits) on Friday evening analysed cold front is indeed very weak / fractured.
December 5, 2024 at 10:08 PM
Sting Jet in #StormDarragh? #Technical
1/ Sting jets are most commonly found in Shapiro-Keyser cyclones
These cyclones tend to be marked by a frontal fracture, meaning the cold front is very weak. UKV fields (dewpoint digits) on Friday evening analysed cold front is indeed very weak / fractured.
1/ Sting jets are most commonly found in Shapiro-Keyser cyclones
These cyclones tend to be marked by a frontal fracture, meaning the cold front is very weak. UKV fields (dewpoint digits) on Friday evening analysed cold front is indeed very weak / fractured.
Across #SouthernAfrica, following the historic #drought of 2023/2024 (linked to El Nino), the start of the 2024 / 2025 wet season is much delayed.
Much of the maize (the staple crop) is mostly planted in November, but the area currently remains arid and baked by heat, planting will be delayed.
Much of the maize (the staple crop) is mostly planted in November, but the area currently remains arid and baked by heat, planting will be delayed.
December 3, 2024 at 12:44 PM
Across #SouthernAfrica, following the historic #drought of 2023/2024 (linked to El Nino), the start of the 2024 / 2025 wet season is much delayed.
Much of the maize (the staple crop) is mostly planted in November, but the area currently remains arid and baked by heat, planting will be delayed.
Much of the maize (the staple crop) is mostly planted in November, but the area currently remains arid and baked by heat, planting will be delayed.
November 28, 2024 at 8:34 PM