Tim Garrett
@nephologue.bsky.social
Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah. All opinions predetermined and not my employer's.
Not the first time I've posted this, but I always find it quite fascinating how well it continues to hold. For over *two thousand years*, atmospheric CO2 perturbations have scaled with the world GDP. Aren't the implications for climate change mitigation pretty simple...?
August 1, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Not the first time I've posted this, but I always find it quite fascinating how well it continues to hold. For over *two thousand years*, atmospheric CO2 perturbations have scaled with the world GDP. Aren't the implications for climate change mitigation pretty simple...?
In 2017 at a small meeting in Switzerland on energy and the economy, experts scolded me that the economy would collapse from resource depletion and debt, certainly by 2025. I argued inertia would keep it growing longer (not forever). Here we are. Physics actually works! Always.
February 5, 2025 at 7:06 PM
In 2017 at a small meeting in Switzerland on energy and the economy, experts scolded me that the economy would collapse from resource depletion and debt, certainly by 2025. I argued inertia would keep it growing longer (not forever). Here we are. Physics actually works! Always.
So it turns out snowflake settling is full of surprises. Not just size, not just shape, not just density, not just turbulence, but perhaps more than anything it is the mean wind horizontal winds speeds that controls how fast snowflakes fall
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
Settling and rotation of frozen hydrometeors in turbulent air
Numerical model predictions of precipitation rates rely heavily on representations of how fast hydrometeors fall, assuming settling is determined only by the opposing force balance of gravity and drag...
essopenarchive.org
February 1, 2025 at 11:44 PM
So it turns out snowflake settling is full of surprises. Not just size, not just shape, not just density, not just turbulence, but perhaps more than anything it is the mean wind horizontal winds speeds that controls how fast snowflakes fall
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Tim Garrett
I developed an economic theory that underscores how energy and matter are the twin cornerstones of economic activity and growth, how mitigating climate change will require a fundamental restructuring of society. Here's a nice video produced about it
www.youtube.com/watch?v=soXW...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=soXW...
FAQ on the Garrett theory of economic growth
YouTube video by Economic Growth and Collapse
www.youtube.com
December 31, 2024 at 7:11 PM
I developed an economic theory that underscores how energy and matter are the twin cornerstones of economic activity and growth, how mitigating climate change will require a fundamental restructuring of society. Here's a nice video produced about it
www.youtube.com/watch?v=soXW...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=soXW...
Tim Garrett
@nephologue
Human history is the tension between boundless exponential expansion and the harsh reality of resource depletion and pollution. Can innovation forever keep us afloat, or will nature hasten our demise? A new video:
t.co/B35B4YBRSl
YouTube
Share your videos with friends, family, and the world
youtube.com
December 29, 2024 at 11:59 PM
Tim Garrett
@nephologue
Human history is the tension between boundless exponential expansion and the harsh reality of resource depletion and pollution. Can innovation forever keep us afloat, or will nature hasten our demise? A new video:
t.co/B35B4YBRSl
New video. Our economic models are unscientific: their assumptions cannot potentially be disproved. Starting ground-up from thermodynamic principles, we can build new economic models that make the testable predictions we need to guide our economic future
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFh0...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFh0...
The physical origins of economic Wealth
YouTube video by Economic Growth and Collapse
www.youtube.com
December 28, 2024 at 6:18 PM
New video. Our economic models are unscientific: their assumptions cannot potentially be disproved. Starting ground-up from thermodynamic principles, we can build new economic models that make the testable predictions we need to guide our economic future
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFh0...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFh0...
New preprint of a submission to GRL presenting theoretical and numerical arguments that tropical cloud height can be determined from the mean tropospheric temperature profile alone
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
Cloud edge energy adjusts to the saturated tropospheric mean independent of climate state
Large-scale integral constraints on cloud behaviors can guide their more precise representation in present and future climates. We show theoretically that the moist static energy evaluated at cloud ed...
essopenarchive.org
December 24, 2024 at 6:06 PM
New preprint of a submission to GRL presenting theoretical and numerical arguments that tropical cloud height can be determined from the mean tropospheric temperature profile alone
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
We must face the limits to our economic growth. Civilization thrives on high availability of energy and material resources, but at the cost of pollution and depletion. Traditional economics trivializes these constraints and risks hastening our collapse
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip5l...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip5l...
The physical limits to economic growth
YouTube video by Economic Growth and Collapse
www.youtube.com
December 21, 2024 at 4:12 PM
We must face the limits to our economic growth. Civilization thrives on high availability of energy and material resources, but at the cost of pollution and depletion. Traditional economics trivializes these constraints and risks hastening our collapse
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip5l...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip5l...
Civilization grows by efficiently using an energy surplus to transform the earth's crust into the stuff of us.
However, growth has limits. Resource depletion and internal decay will tip us towards collapse. A new video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOdo...
However, growth has limits. Resource depletion and internal decay will tip us towards collapse. A new video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOdo...
Humanity’s economic conundrum
YouTube video by Economic Growth and Collapse
www.youtube.com
December 19, 2024 at 11:23 PM
Civilization grows by efficiently using an energy surplus to transform the earth's crust into the stuff of us.
However, growth has limits. Resource depletion and internal decay will tip us towards collapse. A new video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOdo...
However, growth has limits. Resource depletion and internal decay will tip us towards collapse. A new video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOdo...
I'll be posting a series of videos on economic growth and collapse from this @YouTube channel spurred by Michael Fardos
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
Economic Growth and Collapse
www.youtube.com
December 18, 2024 at 7:09 PM
I'll be posting a series of videos on economic growth and collapse from this @YouTube channel spurred by Michael Fardos
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
Check out this new @YouTube channel about economic growth and decline. Civilizations rise exponentially, only to become fragile as resources deplete and decay sets in. The path of expansion, discovery, and collapse seems defining. But can innovation sustain us?
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
Economic Growth and Collapse
www.youtube.com
December 16, 2024 at 8:16 PM
Check out this new @YouTube channel about economic growth and decline. Civilizations rise exponentially, only to become fragile as resources deplete and decay sets in. The path of expansion, discovery, and collapse seems defining. But can innovation sustain us?
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
Really productive session with Steve Keen and Matheus Grasselli last week at McMaster University. We came up with a new simple formulation to predict when GDP growth will stall due to climate damages.
December 9, 2024 at 7:16 PM
Really productive session with Steve Keen and Matheus Grasselli last week at McMaster University. We came up with a new simple formulation to predict when GDP growth will stall due to climate damages.
Off to Toronto Tuesday to reignite a very fruitful past collaboration with Profs Steve Keen and Matheus Grasselli. Our goal is to try to predict when climate change tips the GDP towards collapse and to what degree it will show up as an inflationary pressure.
December 2, 2024 at 5:34 AM
Off to Toronto Tuesday to reignite a very fruitful past collaboration with Profs Steve Keen and Matheus Grasselli. Our goal is to try to predict when climate change tips the GDP towards collapse and to what degree it will show up as an inflationary pressure.
Reposted by Tim Garrett
What's the relationship between our energy consumption, our material footprint and our economies?
I spoke with the funnest physicist I know @nephologue.bsky.social to find out.
Listen now: www.planetcritical.com/p/the-thermo...
I spoke with the funnest physicist I know @nephologue.bsky.social to find out.
Listen now: www.planetcritical.com/p/the-thermo...
The Thermodynamics of Degrowth | Tim Garrett
Collapse and Recovery
www.planetcritical.com
May 23, 2024 at 8:19 AM
What's the relationship between our energy consumption, our material footprint and our economies?
I spoke with the funnest physicist I know @nephologue.bsky.social to find out.
Listen now: www.planetcritical.com/p/the-thermo...
I spoke with the funnest physicist I know @nephologue.bsky.social to find out.
Listen now: www.planetcritical.com/p/the-thermo...
Reposted by Tim Garrett
"Humanity uses its energy surplus to transform materials from one thing to another – even if we did find a way to create a renewable supply of energy, we would still run up against hard limits to material transformation: the planet is finite."
www.planetcritical.com/p/the-holy-t...
www.planetcritical.com/p/the-holy-t...
The Holy Trinity
Getting a grip on energy, materials and civilisation
www.planetcritical.com
May 28, 2024 at 11:16 AM
"Humanity uses its energy surplus to transform materials from one thing to another – even if we did find a way to create a renewable supply of energy, we would still run up against hard limits to material transformation: the planet is finite."
www.planetcritical.com/p/the-holy-t...
www.planetcritical.com/p/the-holy-t...
Reposted by Tim Garrett
Your occasional reminder that one of the longest standing predictions of climate science, which has subsequently been verified by observations, is that rainfall events will become more intense.
www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/u...
www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/u...
More Flooding Expected in Houston as Rain Drenches Texas
Rivers in Southeast Texas could be swollen for days or weeks, forecasters said, as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall continued on Sunday.
www.nytimes.com
May 5, 2024 at 5:59 PM
Your occasional reminder that one of the longest standing predictions of climate science, which has subsequently been verified by observations, is that rainfall events will become more intense.
www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/u...
www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/u...
What happened to Twitter? Overall intellectual level of responses to tweets there kind of plummeted it seems like all that place has left is climate denying bots
November 20, 2023 at 2:08 AM
What happened to Twitter? Overall intellectual level of responses to tweets there kind of plummeted it seems like all that place has left is climate denying bots
Optimism... for one side of the coin without addressing the other that fossil fuels remain useful and available. Innovating a nuclear or solar powered heat pump won't change fossil utilitiy unless we *also* stop innovation of other fossil uses
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
November 14, 2023 at 2:33 PM
Optimism... for one side of the coin without addressing the other that fossil fuels remain useful and available. Innovating a nuclear or solar powered heat pump won't change fossil utilitiy unless we *also* stop innovation of other fossil uses
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Burning clean in the Wasatch Back
November 12, 2023 at 3:08 AM
Burning clean in the Wasatch Back
Having just attended a workshop with a gaggle of prestigious macroeconomists, I worry that a system of pursuing and maintaining academic prestige makes it harder to solve hard problems, in this case addressing the existential risk that climate change will cause mass migration and economic collapse
November 4, 2023 at 1:13 AM
Having just attended a workshop with a gaggle of prestigious macroeconomists, I worry that a system of pursuing and maintaining academic prestige makes it harder to solve hard problems, in this case addressing the existential risk that climate change will cause mass migration and economic collapse
Headed to this workshop next week: "to explore complex climate dynamics—including nonlinear, compounding, and cascading risks—and how these dynamics will affect and may propagate in the macroeconomy"
www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/the...
Expect it to be interesting
www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/the...
Expect it to be interesting
October 23, 2023 at 7:10 PM
Headed to this workshop next week: "to explore complex climate dynamics—including nonlinear, compounding, and cascading risks—and how these dynamics will affect and may propagate in the macroeconomy"
www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/the...
Expect it to be interesting
www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/the...
Expect it to be interesting
Having built an off-grid (solar) power plant for a home, with its countless headaches, I appreciate much more now the miracle of the nearly infallible link from a distant power plant to the light switch.
Of course, coal has it's issues, but still, power centralization is enormously impressive
Of course, coal has it's issues, but still, power centralization is enormously impressive
Got the chance to tour the Huntington power plant today with @CCLWasatchBack. Amazing opportunity to see where our power comes from and build connections in energy communities. It’s hard to believe I’ve never seen the inside of a coal plant before. 🔌💡🧵
October 21, 2023 at 3:30 PM
Having built an off-grid (solar) power plant for a home, with its countless headaches, I appreciate much more now the miracle of the nearly infallible link from a distant power plant to the light switch.
Of course, coal has it's issues, but still, power centralization is enormously impressive
Of course, coal has it's issues, but still, power centralization is enormously impressive
From time to time I get told that we cannot model human systems as physical systems. This is ideology not science
esd.copernicus.org/articles/6/6...
esd.copernicus.org/articles/6/6...
October 17, 2023 at 5:02 PM
From time to time I get told that we cannot model human systems as physical systems. This is ideology not science
esd.copernicus.org/articles/6/6...
esd.copernicus.org/articles/6/6...
If we all stopped flying it would not necessarily affect CO2 emissions because the fossil fuels would remain available and useful, and now less competitive to access. Such statements need to evaluate whether the case of fewer flyers simply lets others get bigger trucks
Just 11% of the world flew in 2018.
A tiny group of very frequent flyers, 1% of world population, account for 50% of airline emissions.
A French climate expert called for people to be limited to just four flights in their lifetime. 41% said they were in favour.
www.ft.com/content/36f5...
A tiny group of very frequent flyers, 1% of world population, account for 50% of airline emissions.
A French climate expert called for people to be limited to just four flights in their lifetime. 41% said they were in favour.
www.ft.com/content/36f5...
Flying is getting better and also harder
New technology is easing years of travel tedium just as flight shaming enters a new phase
www.ft.com
October 15, 2023 at 2:18 PM
If we all stopped flying it would not necessarily affect CO2 emissions because the fossil fuels would remain available and useful, and now less competitive to access. Such statements need to evaluate whether the case of fewer flyers simply lets others get bigger trucks