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@negativegw.bsky.social
Security guarantees but only on paper and signed by liars
August 19, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Security guarantees but only on paper and signed by liars
When you still want to own tech stocks but you hate the political climate...
www.ft.com/content/6601...
www.ft.com/content/6601...
It’s a run to hedge the dollar, not a run on the dollar
Hedge hogging
www.ft.com
August 19, 2025 at 2:38 PM
When you still want to own tech stocks but you hate the political climate...
www.ft.com/content/6601...
www.ft.com/content/6601...
You really gotta hand it to Trump. He ran on a platform of bringing back high paying jobs for unskilled non-immigrant labor and with every appointment he has lived up to that promise.
August 12, 2025 at 2:00 PM
You really gotta hand it to Trump. He ran on a platform of bringing back high paying jobs for unskilled non-immigrant labor and with every appointment he has lived up to that promise.
The death of music...in any other time period the current political environment would have brought about a cultural movement that infected the music scene. I don't see that anywhere. The kids are not alright.
August 11, 2025 at 8:22 PM
The death of music...in any other time period the current political environment would have brought about a cultural movement that infected the music scene. I don't see that anywhere. The kids are not alright.
Trump's biggest skill is anchoring and moving goal posts
August 2, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Trump's biggest skill is anchoring and moving goal posts
That Cuban , a man who made his wealth monetizing a bubble, wants little to no regulation of crypto is maybe the most unsurprising thing ever. That he doesn't even understand why his position makes no sense and just wants to yell at regulators is same energy.
May 27, 2025 at 11:59 PM
That Cuban , a man who made his wealth monetizing a bubble, wants little to no regulation of crypto is maybe the most unsurprising thing ever. That he doesn't even understand why his position makes no sense and just wants to yell at regulators is same energy.
My daughter has this raffle at elementary school and one of the prizes is "principal for the day". I feel like this just happened to the country except it's the president and it's for 4 years.
May 6, 2025 at 9:22 PM
My daughter has this raffle at elementary school and one of the prizes is "principal for the day". I feel like this just happened to the country except it's the president and it's for 4 years.
Whispers: Geico looks like it's back and I would expect them to ramp acquisition spend a lot. Suspect it's about to get a lot more competitive in auto insurance.
May 4, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Whispers: Geico looks like it's back and I would expect them to ramp acquisition spend a lot. Suspect it's about to get a lot more competitive in auto insurance.
Welp I'm calling this one. Elon is out.
I know a few of you think that Icarus will never get his comeuppance, but I'm gonna take the over on this one.
April 19, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Welp I'm calling this one. Elon is out.
So I guess we chase highs. Stuff not cheap but people offsides and we can rally. Names hit by degrossing probably do best. AI is its own thing but could rally the hardest. Some truly bombed out sectors (like biotech) might be great LT but not broadly risk-on trades. Banks rally if market rallies.
April 12, 2025 at 7:51 PM
So I guess we chase highs. Stuff not cheap but people offsides and we can rally. Names hit by degrossing probably do best. AI is its own thing but could rally the hardest. Some truly bombed out sectors (like biotech) might be great LT but not broadly risk-on trades. Banks rally if market rallies.
We chose to treat our friends very poorly
We are set for a massive trade war. I don't see a grand US/China accord. The questions:
(1) How we choose to treat our friends
(2) What the rest of the world does about China's appetite for surpluses
It's a global trade system and I don't think anyone really knows how this will all play out.
(1) How we choose to treat our friends
(2) What the rest of the world does about China's appetite for surpluses
It's a global trade system and I don't think anyone really knows how this will all play out.
April 6, 2025 at 2:11 PM
We chose to treat our friends very poorly
10/10
When a bully sees something that works they are going to use that something over and over again until it stops working. I suspect all of the (possibly well-meaning) proponents of tariffs are going to learn this lesson.
April 6, 2025 at 2:08 PM
10/10
I wonder what Bessent is thinking right about now
As is custom he must now humiliate himself and every boundary he thought he had will be pushed. That won’t be the biggest problem though. A trader can easily change their mind when thing go against them…not as easy for a treasury secretary. Will be interesting to watch.
April 6, 2025 at 2:06 PM
I wonder what Bessent is thinking right about now
Vol was cheap for so long
Certainty is usually the enemy, but especially so today when we are embarking on many policies of which the market has no institutional memory.
April 6, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Vol was cheap for so long
Every morning the question becomes more rhetorical
a man in a military uniform says are we the baddies .
ALT: a man in a military uniform says are we the baddies .
media.tenor.com
March 28, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Every morning the question becomes more rhetorical
The more aggressive the behavior the harder the recoil
March 27, 2025 at 7:07 PM
The more aggressive the behavior the harder the recoil
Bessent on tariffs: "One, it is a good source of revenue. Two, it protects our important industries and their employees. And three, he (Trump) has added a third leg to the stool and he uses it for negotiating."
Tariffs...the solution to all of life's problems
Tariffs...the solution to all of life's problems
When a bully sees something that works they are going to use that something over and over again until it stops working. I suspect all of the (possibly well-meaning) proponents of tariffs are going to learn this lesson.
March 6, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Bessent on tariffs: "One, it is a good source of revenue. Two, it protects our important industries and their employees. And three, he (Trump) has added a third leg to the stool and he uses it for negotiating."
Tariffs...the solution to all of life's problems
Tariffs...the solution to all of life's problems
We have reach the part of the cycle where grandpa tries to sell you on the idea that $118B of holdco cash is really not that much.
February 22, 2025 at 11:27 PM
We have reach the part of the cycle where grandpa tries to sell you on the idea that $118B of holdco cash is really not that much.
The zeitgeist of today is grift and unrestrained power. Obstacles to grift are being dismantled primarily through a gutting of enforcement (i.e. the rule of law) and not by changing said laws. It's out in the open and no one is hiding anything. It's domestic and international.
February 16, 2025 at 4:34 PM
The zeitgeist of today is grift and unrestrained power. Obstacles to grift are being dismantled primarily through a gutting of enforcement (i.e. the rule of law) and not by changing said laws. It's out in the open and no one is hiding anything. It's domestic and international.
NATO is dead. EU needs to learn to defend itself…An EU defense alliance w/ actual troops. Quite a few countries should be developing nukes, including Ukraine. The EU should let the UK back into the trade bloc because it’s helpful for defense.
The world will not be safer, but it is what it is.
The world will not be safer, but it is what it is.
February 15, 2025 at 2:20 PM
NATO is dead. EU needs to learn to defend itself…An EU defense alliance w/ actual troops. Quite a few countries should be developing nukes, including Ukraine. The EU should let the UK back into the trade bloc because it’s helpful for defense.
The world will not be safer, but it is what it is.
The world will not be safer, but it is what it is.
The current socioeconomic situation in the US is deeply troubling. This is true whether or not you believe the current cure is worse than the disease. To say this has not been reflected in risk assets is an understatement, but there are also no risk-free assets despite what you may have been taught.
February 12, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The current socioeconomic situation in the US is deeply troubling. This is true whether or not you believe the current cure is worse than the disease. To say this has not been reflected in risk assets is an understatement, but there are also no risk-free assets despite what you may have been taught.
Sad on quite a few levels
February 12, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Sad on quite a few levels
Oh sure we have war rooms for everything at JPM. Trump just happens to be one of those war rooms.
February 11, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Oh sure we have war rooms for everything at JPM. Trump just happens to be one of those war rooms.
Why are CEOs worried? Because when Kernen think something is crazy...
NEC Director Kevin Hassett on Trump seriously wanting to annex Canada: "When the US was founded, how many states did we have? And how many do we have now? And so, is it outlandish?"
February 10, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Why are CEOs worried? Because when Kernen think something is crazy...