@natasharsarin.bsky.social
Professor, Yale Law School & Yale School of Management; President @budgetlab.bsky.social; Contributing columnist @postopinions.bsky.social
Former Counselor at Treasury, Professor Penn Law & Wharton
https://www.natashasarin.com/
Former Counselor at Treasury, Professor Penn Law & Wharton
https://www.natashasarin.com/
Here is what the distribution of the reconciliation bill looks like including tariffs, hot off @budgetlab.bsky.social presses.
Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households.
Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...
Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households.
Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...
June 12, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Here is what the distribution of the reconciliation bill looks like including tariffs, hot off @budgetlab.bsky.social presses.
Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households.
Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...
Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households.
Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...
Pretty sobering estimates here. Magnitudes vary but the headline conclusion does not:
Tens of thousands will die prematurely if this bill becomes law.
Tens of thousands will die prematurely if this bill becomes law.
June 9, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Pretty sobering estimates here. Magnitudes vary but the headline conclusion does not:
Tens of thousands will die prematurely if this bill becomes law.
Tens of thousands will die prematurely if this bill becomes law.
Before the IRA, IRS was way understaffed
As a result, the agency couldn't collect taxes owed, per Commissioner Rettig (a Trump appointee)
IRS has already lost 30% of its auditors. That's not going back to this (bad) base. It is making things much worse!
www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
As a result, the agency couldn't collect taxes owed, per Commissioner Rettig (a Trump appointee)
IRS has already lost 30% of its auditors. That's not going back to this (bad) base. It is making things much worse!
www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
May 7, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Before the IRA, IRS was way understaffed
As a result, the agency couldn't collect taxes owed, per Commissioner Rettig (a Trump appointee)
IRS has already lost 30% of its auditors. That's not going back to this (bad) base. It is making things much worse!
www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
As a result, the agency couldn't collect taxes owed, per Commissioner Rettig (a Trump appointee)
IRS has already lost 30% of its auditors. That's not going back to this (bad) base. It is making things much worse!
www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
Grateful to @jacobbogage.bsky.social for covering @budgetlab.bsky.social new report on the distributional effects of the House-passed Budget Resolution.
Overall: huge tax cuts for higher-income families are partially paid for by cutting healthcare and SNAP, *raising costs* for the bottom 40%
Overall: huge tax cuts for higher-income families are partially paid for by cutting healthcare and SNAP, *raising costs* for the bottom 40%
March 19, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Grateful to @jacobbogage.bsky.social for covering @budgetlab.bsky.social new report on the distributional effects of the House-passed Budget Resolution.
Overall: huge tax cuts for higher-income families are partially paid for by cutting healthcare and SNAP, *raising costs* for the bottom 40%
Overall: huge tax cuts for higher-income families are partially paid for by cutting healthcare and SNAP, *raising costs* for the bottom 40%
Beyond revenue losses, tax system where only some play by rules is unfair
Wage earners already pay all they owe (taxes automatically withheld)
Gutting IRS means carte blance to cheat for those who accrue income in opaque ways, disprop at top
Top 1% = $200B unpaid taxes/yr
Wage earners already pay all they owe (taxes automatically withheld)
Gutting IRS means carte blance to cheat for those who accrue income in opaque ways, disprop at top
Top 1% = $200B unpaid taxes/yr
March 13, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Beyond revenue losses, tax system where only some play by rules is unfair
Wage earners already pay all they owe (taxes automatically withheld)
Gutting IRS means carte blance to cheat for those who accrue income in opaque ways, disprop at top
Top 1% = $200B unpaid taxes/yr
Wage earners already pay all they owe (taxes automatically withheld)
Gutting IRS means carte blance to cheat for those who accrue income in opaque ways, disprop at top
Top 1% = $200B unpaid taxes/yr
This Admin is considering shrinking the IRS by 50% to levels not seen since 1960.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
March 13, 2025 at 2:12 PM
This Admin is considering shrinking the IRS by 50% to levels not seen since 1960.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
Here is what an IRS cafeteria in Austin looked like just a few years ago.
With an understaffed IRS, people were waiting years for these returns to be processed and refunds issued
No one picked up when you called with questions.
Destroying the agency means more photos like
With an understaffed IRS, people were waiting years for these returns to be processed and refunds issued
No one picked up when you called with questions.
Destroying the agency means more photos like
March 5, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Here is what an IRS cafeteria in Austin looked like just a few years ago.
With an understaffed IRS, people were waiting years for these returns to be processed and refunds issued
No one picked up when you called with questions.
Destroying the agency means more photos like
With an understaffed IRS, people were waiting years for these returns to be processed and refunds issued
No one picked up when you called with questions.
Destroying the agency means more photos like
My estimates with Mark Mazur suggests we could give up on ~$3T in uncollected taxes by gutting tax compliance efforts.
That is a win for fraudsters and tax evaders, and a loss for the American people.
taxnotes.com/tax-notes-fe...
That is a win for fraudsters and tax evaders, and a loss for the American people.
taxnotes.com/tax-notes-fe...
February 19, 2025 at 6:52 PM
My estimates with Mark Mazur suggests we could give up on ~$3T in uncollected taxes by gutting tax compliance efforts.
That is a win for fraudsters and tax evaders, and a loss for the American people.
taxnotes.com/tax-notes-fe...
That is a win for fraudsters and tax evaders, and a loss for the American people.
taxnotes.com/tax-notes-fe...
Hi friends, I'm late but taking the leap over here, so please follow me for econ musings, @budgetlab.bsky.social latest, and occasional dog content.
February 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Hi friends, I'm late but taking the leap over here, so please follow me for econ musings, @budgetlab.bsky.social latest, and occasional dog content.