@mwilbert.bsky.social
1256 treatment on gaming contracts makes no sense. It's not the most defensible thing in the first place, although personally I'm glad it's available.
November 20, 2025 at 1:47 PM
1256 treatment on gaming contracts makes no sense. It's not the most defensible thing in the first place, although personally I'm glad it's available.
The housing bubble was obvious; the bizarre loans were a clear sign of excess optimism, and that was discussed. What wasn't obvious (at least to me at the time) the vulnerability of the financial system to a broad decline in housing. Other people saw this, but only a few bet on it ahead of time.
November 19, 2025 at 8:35 PM
The housing bubble was obvious; the bizarre loans were a clear sign of excess optimism, and that was discussed. What wasn't obvious (at least to me at the time) the vulnerability of the financial system to a broad decline in housing. Other people saw this, but only a few bet on it ahead of time.
In all the bubbles I've seen, there's widespread discussion of it. But just that knowing there's a bubble doesn't tell you when to get out unless you are extremely risk averse, so a lot of people know there's a bubble and don't change their behavior much if at all until it actually starts deflating.
November 19, 2025 at 7:49 PM
In all the bubbles I've seen, there's widespread discussion of it. But just that knowing there's a bubble doesn't tell you when to get out unless you are extremely risk averse, so a lot of people know there's a bubble and don't change their behavior much if at all until it actually starts deflating.
I'm not going to defend Trump voters; they have caused great suffering and grievously damaged the country. But many didn't know. Vast swaths of media dismissed warnings about what Trump would do, and said that he wasn't that bad in his first term. Also, normal people just don't pay close attention.
November 19, 2025 at 2:40 PM
I'm not going to defend Trump voters; they have caused great suffering and grievously damaged the country. But many didn't know. Vast swaths of media dismissed warnings about what Trump would do, and said that he wasn't that bad in his first term. Also, normal people just don't pay close attention.
This isn't a contradiction. It's just people talking about different universes. There's a sector where there appears to be over-investment, and there's the economy as a whole. That isn't going to bail out the over-invested sector if there is a problem.
November 18, 2025 at 1:15 PM
This isn't a contradiction. It's just people talking about different universes. There's a sector where there appears to be over-investment, and there's the economy as a whole. That isn't going to bail out the over-invested sector if there is a problem.
Discouraging the migration of forigen talent into the US? Gosh, Trump again.
The Democrats certainly are bad in various ways, but if I had to choose between the Trumpies and the Democrats in terms of the future industrial power of the US, I'm pretty sure I'd go with the Democrats.
The Democrats certainly are bad in various ways, but if I had to choose between the Trumpies and the Democrats in terms of the future industrial power of the US, I'm pretty sure I'd go with the Democrats.
November 17, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Discouraging the migration of forigen talent into the US? Gosh, Trump again.
The Democrats certainly are bad in various ways, but if I had to choose between the Trumpies and the Democrats in terms of the future industrial power of the US, I'm pretty sure I'd go with the Democrats.
The Democrats certainly are bad in various ways, but if I had to choose between the Trumpies and the Democrats in terms of the future industrial power of the US, I'm pretty sure I'd go with the Democrats.
Isn't Trump the guy who is trying as hard as he can to keep the US from being competitive in the electrotech stack which is vital to both future industrial and defense prospects of the US? Pretty sure he is is. Also the guy trying to hamstring research in the US? Yep, that's him.
November 17, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Isn't Trump the guy who is trying as hard as he can to keep the US from being competitive in the electrotech stack which is vital to both future industrial and defense prospects of the US? Pretty sure he is is. Also the guy trying to hamstring research in the US? Yep, that's him.
What horrible reactions to a major achievement. I know people like this exist, but I never see them in the wild. Possibly they can't take exposure to sunlight.
Just remember that even in these absurd times, these people are not representative. And congratulations!
Just remember that even in these absurd times, these people are not representative. And congratulations!
November 17, 2025 at 8:52 PM
What horrible reactions to a major achievement. I know people like this exist, but I never see them in the wild. Possibly they can't take exposure to sunlight.
Just remember that even in these absurd times, these people are not representative. And congratulations!
Just remember that even in these absurd times, these people are not representative. And congratulations!
Bitcoin is of course quite volatile, but not giving me that risk-on feeling at the moment.
November 17, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Bitcoin is of course quite volatile, but not giving me that risk-on feeling at the moment.
I'm not British, but as an outsider this seems obviously true. What is going on now just makes them look feckless and ineffective. You can try to sell a policy that you are doing something, even if people don't love it. You can't really convince people that you are being boldly indecisive.
November 16, 2025 at 4:55 PM
I'm not British, but as an outsider this seems obviously true. What is going on now just makes them look feckless and ineffective. You can try to sell a policy that you are doing something, even if people don't love it. You can't really convince people that you are being boldly indecisive.
Wtih no other information, I suppose you could buy with a stop, but I wouldn't.
Doesn't look like a good setup for a sale.
So nothing done.
Doesn't look like a good setup for a sale.
So nothing done.
November 14, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Wtih no other information, I suppose you could buy with a stop, but I wouldn't.
Doesn't look like a good setup for a sale.
So nothing done.
Doesn't look like a good setup for a sale.
So nothing done.
True, but really the problem with $TSLA as a stock isn't the first digit, it's the number of digits.
November 13, 2025 at 3:55 PM
True, but really the problem with $TSLA as a stock isn't the first digit, it's the number of digits.
I do not agree. It's true that there's not a straightforward bank transfer system as there is in much of the world, but making a domestic payment in the US is easy and generally cheap/free. And way easier than dealing with crypto.
The crypto thing is just gambling and justifying it.
The crypto thing is just gambling and justifying it.
November 13, 2025 at 2:53 PM
I do not agree. It's true that there's not a straightforward bank transfer system as there is in much of the world, but making a domestic payment in the US is easy and generally cheap/free. And way easier than dealing with crypto.
The crypto thing is just gambling and justifying it.
The crypto thing is just gambling and justifying it.
For example. one thing Bank of America does is send a text if they see a checking transaction that doesn't fit their expected pattern, and they hold up processing it until you confirm that you wanted that transaction made. Do they consider that part of the chatbot function?
November 12, 2025 at 11:01 PM
For example. one thing Bank of America does is send a text if they see a checking transaction that doesn't fit their expected pattern, and they hold up processing it until you confirm that you wanted that transaction made. Do they consider that part of the chatbot function?
I can easily see how AI can reduce fraud losses by a large percentage. I'd really like details on the mechanism by which a *chatbot* can do that. Advising people not to Zelle money to scammers? I don't understand where the chatbot gets in the middle of the fraud.
November 12, 2025 at 10:57 PM
I can easily see how AI can reduce fraud losses by a large percentage. I'd really like details on the mechanism by which a *chatbot* can do that. Advising people not to Zelle money to scammers? I don't understand where the chatbot gets in the middle of the fraud.
www.congress.gov
November 12, 2025 at 10:33 PM
No, but all that the petition does is allow a vote on whether to allow the bill to be removed from the control of the committee that it is being held up in. You have to win that vote, and then you have to win a vote to actually consider it on the floor, and then eventually vote on the bill itself.
November 12, 2025 at 10:32 PM
No, but all that the petition does is allow a vote on whether to allow the bill to be removed from the control of the committee that it is being held up in. You have to win that vote, and then you have to win a vote to actually consider it on the floor, and then eventually vote on the bill itself.
I mean, obviously he should be impeached. I can think of ten articles of impeachment off the top of my head.
November 12, 2025 at 7:19 PM
I mean, obviously he should be impeached. I can think of ten articles of impeachment off the top of my head.
This should be arbitraged against the contract for the Democrats retaking the House in 2026, because if they do, I suspect the odds go to 98%+
November 12, 2025 at 7:19 PM
This should be arbitraged against the contract for the Democrats retaking the House in 2026, because if they do, I suspect the odds go to 98%+
I hadn't given much thought to how much collateral damage to reputations, unrelated to sex trafficking, might result from the release of all this Epstein material. I wasn't a big Summers fan before, but I wasn't a hater either. I guess I'm still not a hater, but this is an unappealing view.
November 12, 2025 at 7:01 PM
I hadn't given much thought to how much collateral damage to reputations, unrelated to sex trafficking, might result from the release of all this Epstein material. I wasn't a big Summers fan before, but I wasn't a hater either. I guess I'm still not a hater, but this is an unappealing view.
When most people move away from (stop trusting) consensus reality, they don't become little islands of reasoning from first principles and direct observation. They latch onto some other non-consensus constellation of views which also rejects any contradictory evidence. Next step: affinity fraud.
November 12, 2025 at 5:21 PM
When most people move away from (stop trusting) consensus reality, they don't become little islands of reasoning from first principles and direct observation. They latch onto some other non-consensus constellation of views which also rejects any contradictory evidence. Next step: affinity fraud.
Being a star at pre-K math has me thinking about another person who just completely aced his dementia test.
I hope his parents are not actually as whatever it is as they seem from this anecdote.
I hope his parents are not actually as whatever it is as they seem from this anecdote.
November 11, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Being a star at pre-K math has me thinking about another person who just completely aced his dementia test.
I hope his parents are not actually as whatever it is as they seem from this anecdote.
I hope his parents are not actually as whatever it is as they seem from this anecdote.
Of course it isn't 1-1, but to the extent that newer chips are more power-efficient, and you are power constrained rather than chip constrained, it's not a ridiculous way to look at it.
November 11, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Of course it isn't 1-1, but to the extent that newer chips are more power-efficient, and you are power constrained rather than chip constrained, it's not a ridiculous way to look at it.
Also, it's possible they could have gotten something tangible. And if not, they could have forced the GOP to nuke the filibuster, which from my point of view is a good idea, and I'm not sure the Democrats will have the gumption to do it themselves, even though it's necessary.
November 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Also, it's possible they could have gotten something tangible. And if not, they could have forced the GOP to nuke the filibuster, which from my point of view is a good idea, and I'm not sure the Democrats will have the gumption to do it themselves, even though it's necessary.
Oh, I think ending the shutdown was the wrong decision. But not because they started something they couldn't win. They were never going to get the ACA subsidies, or a least I can't see how. It's wrong because it was highlighting an area where the GOP is bad and keeping the focus on that.
November 10, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Oh, I think ending the shutdown was the wrong decision. But not because they started something they couldn't win. They were never going to get the ACA subsidies, or a least I can't see how. It's wrong because it was highlighting an area where the GOP is bad and keeping the focus on that.