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mrschmidt20.bsky.social
@mrschmidt20.bsky.social
33 followers 29 following 170 posts
None of my replies, comments,(re-) tweets, or posts are to be understood as advice for any matter of life - especially not with respect to financial matters.

Author of https://compcap.substack.com
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mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "La Grande Complication: How To Value Hidden Options in Ring-Fenced Balance Sheets"

Consolidated
Math assumes you own the loss,
But the lender does.

substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
December 13, 2025 at 10:07 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Discomforts of my Investing Style"

Red numbers persist,
Conviction wrestles the price.
Hold or exit? Wait.

substacktools.com/sharex/Hkhed...
December 12, 2025 at 5:47 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Architecture of Understanding: From Synapses to Serendipity"

Neurons fire, then wire.
Knowledge webs spin, thoughts connect.
Learning never stops.

substacktools.com/sharex/6YZFg...
December 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "To the Moon, or Sinking? Separating 'Rockets' from 'Torpedoes'"

Machines learn the truth:
Strong balance sheets, lean profits —
Winners hide plainly.

substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
December 10, 2025 at 9:50 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Financial Fingerprints of a 'Scaled Economies Shared' Business"

Margins stay steady,
Customers gain from the scale.
Costco’s quiet moat.

substacktools.com/sharex/3Vvu2...
December 9, 2025 at 11:06 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
IWG $IWG.L is no longer a real estate company; it’s a platform that just opened ~1,000 locations for negligible net capital cost.

The market seems to price it as a recessionary landlord. The financials show a tech-enabled franchise model.
substacktools.com/sharex/sgcm2...
December 9, 2025 at 10:58 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap: An Intangible Twist on Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings"

R and D spending
Hidden growth masked as spending.
Mind the gap, find gems.

substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
December 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Hidden Value on the Balance Sheet: An Investor's Guide to R&D Tax Incentives."

Tax credits reduce
What balance sheets truly show.
IP worth far more.

substacktools.com/sharex/WpeKT...
December 7, 2025 at 2:02 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Several hours sparring with an AI on the valuation logic of non-recourse debt: A rabbit hole of Real Options, "Hard vs. Soft" recourse, and WACC arbitrage.
Here is my current working thesis on how to value the hidden options in complex balance sheets:
substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
December 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Beyond Working Capital: Spotting Business Model Strength in the Numbers"

Two cycles diverge
One measures ops, one the moat.
Watch the gap reveal.

substacktools.com/sharex/DKTMd...
December 6, 2025 at 10:23 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Cash Flow Conundrum" (maybe a more controversial article)

Lease rules distort truth
U.S. firms look cash-starved, false.
Adjust, find value.

substacktools.com/sharex/1JSsz...
December 5, 2025 at 10:12 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Update on @sensennet SenSen Networks ($SNS.AX):
✅ Survival Risk: Faded (Net Cash Positive).
✅ Orange Flag: Resolved.
🔄 New Phase: "Hidden Levers" and Land & Expand to grow

substacktools.com/sharex/FpMWG...
December 4, 2025 at 4:46 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Behavioral Edge = Triage + Bicycle + Kill Criteria?"

Facts change faster now
Our minds lag behind the truth
Update or decay

substacktools.com/sharex/JFCjF...
December 4, 2025 at 12:06 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Margin × Turnover: A Fresh Look at ROIIC Through DuPont's Lens"

Split returns apart,
Margin times turnover shows
New capital’s path.

substacktools.com/sharex/Nlw2o...
December 3, 2025 at 2:42 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Adjusting SaaS Profits & ROIC For Churn"

Churn rate sets the clock
Amortize over lifetime,
Not random year counts.

substacktools.com/sharex/a5avO...
December 2, 2025 at 2:25 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day: "Float" & Invested Capital

Prepayments flatter
Capital looks light? It’s not.
Adjust what is owed.

substacktools.com/sharex/PiQbN...
December 1, 2025 at 4:24 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
It's the season again :)

Daily haikus until XMas
Each captures a framework, a mental model, or a method I wrote about this year
Complex ideas. Simple words. 5-7-5 syllables.

Numbers hide the truth
Accounting rules mask value
Learn to see through noise

substacktools.com/sharex/Ft-xX...
November 30, 2025 at 6:29 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
The market is punishing @FlowTraders ($FLOW.AS) for an expectedly weak Q3.
While profits are down, the compounding thesis is strengthening. Shareholder Equity just hit a new record, and total trading capital is now >€1bn.
A myopic reaction.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/UKV-j...
October 30, 2025 at 3:41 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Teaser for a free post dropping in ~3 hours on my Substack.
October 26, 2025 at 7:48 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
SenSen Networks (ASX:SNS) reported its 6th consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow, record receipts, and a fortified balance sheet. I did a deep dive into the Q1 FY26 numbers and what they mean for investors. My analysis is now live.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/5V2lv...
October 16, 2025 at 9:34 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Earnings update on a nano-cap idea:
• Net loss due to one-time non-cash expenses
• Backlog at record levels
• Net bookings more than doubled YoY
• New "second engine" 20% better than my expectations
The thesis is strengthening.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/zg2fk...
October 13, 2025 at 4:43 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Happy Friday, everyone.
@intouchinsight Intouch Insight (INX.V) entered the 8th Wonder Airlock. For the first time, I've invoked the Captain's Override on a stock: Write-up to follow...
DYODD.
Read the Airlock Protocol thoughts here: substacktools.com/sharex/Houc1...
October 10, 2025 at 2:34 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Quick reminder: I am calling for insightful questions for IDT Corp’s management. Subscribers can submit their questions until Friday, October 10th, in the 8th Wonder Capital chat, via comments to this post, or via Substack DM
substacktools.com/sharex/bWqo-...
October 8, 2025 at 9:22 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
After a 20% post-earnings drop, is $IDT a compelling opportunity or a falling knife?
I argue the market reacted to the headline and missed the fundamental story.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/pdQa6...
October 1, 2025 at 7:03 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
The headline 1% revenue decline for RAVE Restaurant Group ($RAVE) masks the real story: PBT jumped 17%. Why? A profitable, growing @pizzainn core is completely masked by a strategic pivot.
I like: ROIC up, higher NOPAT margin, better capital turnover.
substacktools.com/sharex/tp9zE...
September 29, 2025 at 3:10 PM